19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

[gerald]

I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.

John, the plague that hit the Roman Empire not only decimated a good portion of the population, but also in response to this decline, the elites ( government etc. ) became gradually oppressive, using taxes and regulations so as to maintain their privileges and power. This was a major factor in Rome's decline. If this happens in China or/and India -- well. --- It depends how it plays out. It should be noted that the black death contributed to stopping the advance of Genghis Khan in Europe, even though his troops may have been a contributing factor in the spread of the black death to Europe. It is a little difficult to wage war when your troops are dying from the plague.
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So in a perverse way Ebola may prevent a world war, because humanity will be preoccupied with other things.--- " Worldwide trade declined, and wars in Europe paused during the Black Death" http://geography.about.com/od/culturalg ... -Death.htm
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cheers - I guess

[Trevor]

I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.

I disagree with you on some things, but here, I don't think you're wrong, as much as I wish I could. Millions of people are going to die. It may not effect us too much, but in poor countries where there are wars going on are going to have their population greatly reduced. A vaccine won't be here for years and we still don't know if this will be proven effective.

Personally, I think the worst-case scenario is it ending up in Pakistan. Millions of refugees, constant fighting throughout the country, especially in the northwestern province, and they have densely packed slums that are perfect for infection.