Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

It's amazing that the establishment has spent the better part of a decade trying to convince themselves and a beleaguered population that an economy that can't operate at a profit in its current confuration really can operate at a profit if they just sprinkle enough counterfeit fairy dust on the bankrupt corporations and chant that counterfeit fairy dust really does create jobs and prosperity.

[Higgenbotham]

1 Barrel of Oil = ~ 23,200 Hours of Human Work Output

Interesting topic to explore in a bit of detail.

This has been argued and debated often on TOD, mainly in response to some of my own quotes in media about 1 barrel equating to 25,000 hours of human labour (12.5 years at 40 hours per week). Ultimately the answer to this question depends highly on assumptions - but we can arrive at a good approximation. 1 barrel equates to 6.1 Gigajoules (5.8 million BTUs). Depending on the 'job', humans use roughly 100-700 Kilocalories per hour (Computer work requires an estimated 119.3 Kcals/hr). 1 kilocalorie (Kcal) = 4,184 joules. So 1 barrel of oil has 6.1 billion/4,184 = 1,454,459 kcals. Using a range of 100-700 kcals per human hour of work then results in a range 2078 and 14544 hours per barrel of oil. At 2000 hours per year (40*50), this is would then be 1.0-7.25 years per barrel. This was discussed in the comment thread here.

However, we aren't robots - we need to eat, sleep, breathe (we exhale energy), maintain, etc. So a wide boundary analysis would require other calories not devoted to doing work - thereby increasing the disparity between human work and a barrel of oil - there is a good discussion of human thermal efficiency here.

Lastly, there is the quality issue. Though one could expend enough calories to chop down a tree or carry a cord of firewood by hand, there are many activities which would be physically impossible for humans to directly accomplish -e.g there wouldn't be room for the required number of humans to stand behind a semi-truck and push it down the highway at 100 kph. Or fly a jet, etc.

The average american uses 60+ barrels of oil equivalent (oil, gas and coal) per year (360 billion joules), which implies a fossil fuel 'slave' subsidy of around 60-450 'human years' per person.

That last sentence is the one I was really curious about.

[Higgenbotham]

Another way to look at it is to compare the common modes of transportation in a non-oil versus oil economy.

For example, to compare the time required to make a long trip using horses versus using automobiles. The ratio might be about 15 to 1 and the trip is more difficult. Also, many goods are impossible to deliver if longer times are involved. Looking at the overall situation it seems reasonable to say that, as a fuel for transportation, oil is 50 to 100 times better than horse power, approximately matching the above estimate.

Or how many acres per day can be plowed by a horse versus a tractor and how much better can a tractor do it?

[Higgenbotham]

"It took a farmer an hour and a half to till an acre of ground with
five horses and a gang plow. With a 27-horsepower tractor and a
moldboard plow, it took only a half-hour to plow an acre and only 15
minutes with a 35-horsepower tractor and a moldboard plow. Today,
using a 154-horsepower tractor and a chisel plow, a farmer can till an
acre in five minutes."

http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farmin ... nes_08.htm

The ratio here looks to be 18.

[aedens]

Dinosaurs still have foot prints as we speak. As the Towers went down a friend then was frantic to contact who he knew in that Metro area. The only comment I forwarded was the proper response is to nuetralize what is and those who could consider that event as a viable response. After time, some views of the harbinger in and of evidence to focus the thought map as to many looked the other way since why infer effort to speculation. The other side is we have nothing to lose by not imposing it to them since who else will survive if we did not. http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Anarch ... f=pd_ybh_7 The adaptive process will be missed as simply the seal in the forhead currently by to damn many. Commentary has alluded to a new Architect arriving, and as we know H we never missed the others who never would adapt to what we already new was on the way. Point blank we knew as they did what was, and is to be so on terms few can regard anyways. Decades pass we support those who have no excuse but to already know better. I am for the widows and orphans and those who impede that who bear that mark will not remain cloaked in darkness since we are told his sevants will see since I told so a very long time ago. If you new three thousand had to die and they already told you what was coming would you not choose that logic since so called rational people would never listen anyways? I read some reports some levels deep that who the cares since we have millions to follow the banner as you seek choice in a civilized society. The burn rate is all we monitor to date. My point is they knew what they considered had to be done on both side of the coin in the confusion of Hagars children to us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr_2W1dTMao

[aedens]

I think there's a good chance the stock market top has been seen and now we begin the descent toward the intrinisic value of the market and economy in its current configuration, which is zero. At the moment, I am wondering how long the manipulators will keep the stock market open as it makes its descent. Will they be stubborn in their insistence to display that all is well and "business as usual" is occurring, or will they cut their losses and propagandize that we are only closing it for a short while, but never reopen it?

Time will tell, but I have my largest short position on in a year and have made money in the past 6 months trading short as it has gone up (not much though).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YbqNaXbmTs

I planned on 2018 to see who stands. Will carry forward options. As we discussed water, wheat and weather will decide for us
as the four ride from our original view. We are not in control, neither are they. I would account the blood moons as the encyclical thought to
focus and recover positions that we did not bother to short given DCF and EBIT which will factor in.
The actual maintenance of capital energy clusters production is the dividend. Life lines have already forwarded to IP networks.
Set a discipline and conviction list and see who favors regard. Bundled good will appear as before and stranded costs mitigated as
we already viewed going forward. Leveraged Spec are on the menu as always. Have I increased short positions, no I have been drifting
out as you outlined before. Greece is the demographic size of Ohio and a baby playing with a hammer of ill regard. We covered more
than few times what this construct covers to energy magin supplys. Some times what do they not get as the Calvary is not coming
since the no man discussions from Sat. Sep 12, 2009 discussions. FDR as we noted seen what was coming and nothing is new under the sun.
I smell circa 1978 effects and lighter fluid. Rather be wrong on the usual suspect but we see to date we are indeed not.

[Higgenbotham]

I think if/when a pandemic happens they will let it drop. Reason being, they can say, "It was out of our hands. We could not stop people from panicking over this pandemic." They know they've created an unsustainable bubble. A pandemic gives them an excuse to let the air come out. The $64 trillion dollar question is would they create a pandemic on purpose or not put out the resources to stop one to give themselves an out before the market drops from some other cause that they could get blamed for? My answer is yes.

[John]

> I think there's a good chance the stock market top has been seen
> and now we begin the descent toward the intrinisic value of the
> market and economy in its current configuration, which is zero.
> At the moment, I am wondering how long the manipulators will keep
> the stock market open as it makes its descent. Will they be
> stubborn in their insistence to display that all is well and
> "business as usual" is occurring, or will they cut their losses
> and propagandize that we are only closing it for a short while,
> but never reopen it?

> Time will tell, but I have my largest short position on in a year
> and have made money in the past 6 months trading short as it has
> gone up (not much though).

Commentary this morning:

The Greek crisis is an old story. There's never any compromise until
after the deadline is passed, and that's what will happen this time.
So the markets can ignore the Greek crisis.

The Ukraine crisis is an old story. The ceasefire looks like it's
holding but even if there are a few more battles, nothing much is
going to change. So the markets can ignore the Ukraine crisis.

Nowhere to go but up!

[aedens]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-give ... re-comment t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4P-QqcNFbo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80 ... Europe.png

[John]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-give ... 1424208053
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4P-QqcNFbo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80 ... Europe.png

Just a suggestion: I was able to read the ZeroHedge link that you
posted earlier, but I can't read the WSJ link because I don't have a
WSJ subscription.