15-Oct-15 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement

[John]

15-Oct-15 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement

Burma's brutal problems with the Rohingya and Kokang continue

** 15-Oct-15 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151015



Contents:
Myanmar (Burma) signs partial, but not nationwide, peace agreement
Myanmar (Burma) peace agreements since 1989
Burma's brutal problems with the Rohingya and Kokang continue


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma,
Karen National Union, KNU, Shan, Kachin,
Thein Sein, Rohingya, Kokang, China, Ashin Wirathu

[jmm1184]

John, are there factors and things the victors in a generational crisis civil war can do that can actually prevent a new generational crisis civil war from occurring? For instance, the English Civil War and the American Civil Wars have yet to be repeated, and there hasn't been a new or attempted French Revolution since 1871. I suspect much of it has to do that an external fault-line began to take precedence over the internal fault-line which unified the country in preparation for the war.

Also, what exactly qualifies as an internal crisis civil war? When you get large political bodies such as empires, what historians term as civil wars may in fact be inter-regional wars occurring within a politically unified but geographically and ethnically diverse structure. Are these same inter-regional "civil wars" also classified as internal crisis civil wars, or are they external crisis wars for the respective regions?

Finally, one generational crisis civil war that has always intrigued me is the Wars of the Roses, as there was no civil war that followed it until the English Civil War of 1642-1649. I need to do closer study, but do you know what the fault-lines were? I know it was between the House of York and Lancaster, but on the face of it that would be a political conflict, which would at face-value indicate a non-crisis war. Was there then a geographical component to it, and are geographical divides as bitter as ethnic divides?

[John]

When I was starting out, I wondered why there was no American Civil
War II, and I wrote some things about it. In that particular case,
the American Civil War was not fought along a race fault line, but was
fought along a geographic north-south fault line, and I concluded that
the vast Westward expansion of the US essentially dissolved the
geographic fault line. Today the only real US fault line is between
Yanquis and Latinos.

The bigger picture is that generational timelines can merge, timelines
can splinter, and timelines can re-merge. It just depends on
circumstances.

In the case of Britain, the fault line was/is between England and
Scotland. The War of the Roses, the English Civil War and the War of
the Spanish Succession all had some component involving that fault
line. In addition, that Spanish Armada was actually traveling to
Scotland in support of its fight with England. So that
England-Scotland fault line has been extremely pervasive.

[jmm1184]

Interesting! Another faultline I've noticed in England's history is the one with the Welsh. The anarchy and the wars of the roses involved them, and quite a number of crisis wars were fought with them.

However my second question still stands: what exactly defines an internal crisis civil war from an external one? Even the American civil war could be construed as an external crisis war, in the sense that it was like two sovereign nations warring against each other. So with large states, are civil wars that involve regional divisions different from civil wars that involve close ethnic and religious faultlines within a region?

[psCargile]

How do we define a civil war? The southern states claimed independence and self sovereignty, and formed their own loosely held union, but had no design to invade, conquer, and rule the United States. Nor was there a design as members of the US to stage a military coup against the government to affirm, enforce, or assert their economic ideology on the whole of the nation. Once the states secceded and formed the Confederacy, they became a separate nation, did they not? I think the actions of the US was of invasion and annexation of a foreign country, to be technical.

However, from the point of view of the Union, the seccession was illegal, the Confederancy illegitimate, and military action necessary.

[jmm1184]

My sense of civil war, at least as defined by generational dynamics, is a war that literally divides a society and region against itself. Internal conflicts that involve violence within a community seems to be a civil war, because the fault-lines are intimate. Class conflict, race wars, and religious/ideological wars fit this, because the sides are intimately involved with one another. Wars fought between class because it involves masters and servants/landlords vs. tenants, as well as wars fought among religious groups and ethnic groups that live side by side. All the people in these groups know each other i,timately before and after the war, causing mass distrust and cycles of revenge.
This opposed to wars fought between different regions/nations. Even if they are within the same country, like the American civil war, it's two different regions/countries against each other. Thats not to say there's no bitterness after the war, but communities are not divided, because they don't live with the enemy.

John does this sound right to you?

[gerald]

John you state " Today the only real US fault line is between Yanquis and Latinos."

Really? hmmm

I think the fault line is more between the productive and the nonproductive ( the nonproductive such as welfare recipients and bureaucrats ) as a former business owner I hired many people from various ethnic, racial, and language backgrounds ( but hired no Muslims or Arabs, but did rent to some ) I found that the hardworking people got a long fairly well and had a resentment towards the nonworking. I currently live in a area with a heavy "Hispanic" and Native American Indian population. And having been to various public events and having hired some locals we all seen to get a long just fine. Your comment about "Yanquis" ( I assume you mean Yankee ) may be due to your East Coast environment. Which reminds me of a comment in Trumps book "The Art of the Deal" paraphrasing " I am marketing the Trump Tower ( in New York ) to the immigrants who made money in the US and not to those who inherited money 175 years ago. ( the old moneyed "Yankees" --) I should clarify that I am NOT a "Yankee" I am a third generation American of eastern European ancestry, Trump is a second generation hardworking American of Scottish and German ancestry. https://www.scottishroots.com/people/donald.php
He can relate to the "working class". This may be the reason why the working classes support Trump regardless of their background and why the "Yankee" elite don't understand why the working classes appear to be supporting Trump. Trump is more like them then the moneyed elite.

If civil discord comes It will be between the working and law abiding against the parasites and non-law abiding.

[John]

Totally disagree. There are political issues separating the
productive and non-productive, but those issues will all disappear in
a crisis war. I'm not saying that there will definitely be a war
between Yanquis and Latinos, but right now it's the only fault line
that I'm aware of.

[gerald]

Totally disagree. There are political issues separating the
productive and non-productive, but those issues will all disappear in
a crisis war. I'm not saying that there will definitely be a war
between Yanquis and Latinos, but right now it's the only fault line
that I'm aware of.

In my travels and with my acquaintances in the US I have seen considerable mixing - marriages - between " Yanquis" and " Latinos" having children.
How does that work?

[John]

> In my travels and with my acquaintances in the US I have seen
> considerable mixing - marriages - between " Yanquis" and "
> Latinos" having children. How does that work?

See my lengthy description of crisis civil wars in:

** 1-Nov-15 World View -- Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151101