Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Of course government messing with the economy must end badly, eventually.

Yes, I agree. Now it's time to pay the piper as they say. And I think the piper will be demanding an exceptionally large payment.

It seems like we are at the SHTF point, but I am amazed we have lasted this long so I just don't know.

I'm amazed things didn't fall apart due to a serious deflation that spun out of control. They stabilized that and got through it by sheer luck in my opinion, until now. But now the problems are in view and they are more serious than in 2008. I think this crash is going to be like the Goldman executives discussed in Lewis' book - a flash crash times 10. A massive 1000 point crash in the S&P that takes place in minutes.

This is worth repeating because things have only gotten worse:

Triple Whammy Shocker: Goldman Shutting Down Sigma X?
By Tyler Durden
Created 04/08/2014 - 20:47

That this is a momentous development, if true, needs no explanation. Because while Sigma X may or may not be the top dark pool in the industry - a claim that Credit Suisse can possibly make alongside Goldman- Sigma X, which we have written about extensively over the past five years, certainly provides Goldman with not only extensive daily revenue but also gives the firm an inside look into what happens in the institutional marketplace, since the bulk of hedge funds and most mutual funds transact almost exclusively on dark pools now in an attempt to avoid precisely the parasitic HFT algos that have been the topic of so much discussion in recent days.

And if Goldman is willing to exit not only HFT, not only legacy lit markets entirely, but also its dark pool, then something truly big and transformational is coming to not only the existing market structure, but something that will be so disruptive, that for once we can't wait to find out just what Goldman has up its sleeves, sleeves which also happen to house the key lawmakers in the Beltway.

Why is Goldman doing this now? We don't know. It is worth noting however that on page 234 of Flash Boys, Michael Lewis cites Ron Morgan and Brian Levine, Goldman Partners and co-heads of Goldman's global stock markets, who said that "Unless there are some changes, there's going to be a massive crash, a flash crash times ten."

[aedens]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economis ... xplains-13

http://www.sovereignmoney.eu/notes-on-h ... ian-school asserts that discount rates are not utils in my opinion.
and friction cost http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15748085 will not be ameliorative.

Point is to redirect efforts.

The nickels in front of a steam roller put to better use.

Hayek’s work on prices as signals, although his conclusions are typically disputed. Hayek’s work is also known in political philosophy, legal theory, and psychology. Within the Austrian School of economics, Hayek’s influence, while undeniably immense, has very recently become the subject of some controversy. His emphasis on spontaneous order and his work on complex systems has been widely influential among many Austrians. Others have preferred to stress Hayek’s work in technical economics, particularly on capital and the business cycle, citing a tension between some of Hayek’s and Mises’s views on the social order.

De Soto’s successful implementation of the Lockean theory that occupation and improvement gives previously unrealized value above and beyond often Byzantine methods of land registration and tenancy has bridged a gap between theory and practice. It is empirical proof also of the metaphysical reality of the right of ownership that flows from the necessary and sufficient relations among persons and real property. In other words, we may now comfortably conclude that the a priori nature of ownership by occupation, labor and improvement should be recognized by legal systems, and that legal system which fail to recognize this do so at their own risk.
https://mises.org/library/interventioni ... c-analysis

As it was said in a opinion " Even though the Austrians claim to think in interdependent stages, they hardly come forth with a real-world idea of systemic chain analysis and evolutive life-cycle analysis."
A very myopic opinion to affairs today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEq8DBxm0J4

[vincecate]

But now the problems are in view and they are more serious than in 2008. I think this crash is going to be like the Goldman executives discussed in Lewis' book - a flash crash times 10. A massive 1000 point crash in the S&P that takes place in minutes.

I think so too. Part of my thinking for buying puts on the S&P. I don't get really long term ones, as they seem too expensive, just less than 6 months. I think when the crash comes it will be really fast so the short term can work. Maybe not 1000 points in minutes, but in a week or month seems very possible. Except for my currently alive S&P options, all my previous ones expired worthless. It has been like an insurance policy costing me money every 6 months or so. But if it pays off it could pay off big. I do worry a bit though that the options market might even fail.

[aedens]

A few have decided it matters not at all. Already I read accounts of it was caused by "x"
The level of depravity is peaking and fits the demographic characteristic seen with
the GD and GGS parameters. Why, or how was never the question.
http://areyouready.co.za/images/2014-20 ... -Large.png
The numbers are impressive on the carnage since Humans really are
in a word "overrun" with operatives taking the rest with them.

he has most certainly given us the season...

As we reported we even gave you the kind of fig tree that was planted
at ground zero and they understood it not at all.

[vincecate]

The S&P recovered much more from the Aug drop than the Russel 2000 did. When people start to get nervous they move from smaller "risky" stocks to larger "safer" stocks. This often happens before a big crash.

Screenshot (60).png (130.7 KiB) Viewed 3714 times

[aedens]

Commenting in early 1937 on Göring's Four Year Plan for economic self-sufficiency, Roberts had presciently predicted the inevitability of either war or Hitler's fall from power. "There are 34 vital materials without which a nation cannot live, and unfortunately, Germany is worse off than any other great state insofar as these are concerned," he observed. "Whereas the British Empire is largely dependent on outside sources for only nine of these, Germany has only two in ample quantities--potash and coal. That means she must turn to the foreigner for all of her supplies of 26 of these and for part of six more.

If a nation has to submit to the expected, it is already known the consequences. I think we need to scale the north and south issues with a
variance to local politics. UAE and Tehran current commodity price war is simple saturation points we we already discussed.
As we seen locally we are in a rather poor condition to service internal repairs in crisis.
Point blank the self licking ice cream cones have hollowed out the core and export as no other death cult in the history of the planet.
We also covered this as price to meet competion. The preface of morals will wear thin to what we do know accurate over the scope of times.
As conveyed point blank they pointed to the direction of the problem and we where less than 60 miles from the target and told to stand down.
The next time we where there all of there arms where folded in contempt. They retired from service since it was seen from the top down and
bottum up what was to be. Our assement was bluntly correct. At Christmas we touched on the topic and the reply was the same. No amount of evidence will suffice for the swamp empire. Ever since the Barbary Coast it was understood by many what was and what will be the condition.
To fault the current office for trying to bitch slap them to the table was a futile effort. I do not condemn it or cordon it. As for the so called blitz by the Russ on the Junior Varsity it was already considered long before any off us ever drawn a breath.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ith#p18410
I think your in the target zone V to what we suspected as the usual suspects.

Micahs complaint is no different today we find.
Who CAUSES the exclamation?
The lost sinner who trifles with conviction.
The professor who mixes with the world.
The lukewarm soul that neglects God's house and ordinances.
The secret believer who does not profess his faith, or confess his Lord.
The backslider who wanders from the right ways of the Lord.
The Church that is cold, or contentious, or inactive.
The Sunday school that is formal, lifeless, and inactive.
The teachers who are conceited, and proud, and self-willed.
In a word, all may take part of the blame, who are not like the first ripe fruit. James Smith, 1860

Adjectives are just messengers being shot. 1861 Internecine Slaughter, not a civil war.....

And the slaughter that was to be from evil men as the fatal conceit unfolds....
Security issues from cluster bomb and sarin massacres that reach the pillars of creation.

[aedens]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-laun ... 1450294160

http://www.ohchr.org/en/newsevents/page ... obots.aspx

[aedens]

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/01/happy- ... as-prices/

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/01/happy- ... as-prices/

less is more

[Higgenbotham]

But now the problems are in view and they are more serious than in 2008. I think this crash is going to be like the Goldman executives discussed in Lewis' book - a flash crash times 10. A massive 1000 point crash in the S&P that takes place in minutes.

Maybe not 1000 points in minutes, but in a week or month seems very possible.

Your details are probably correct in practical terms. The big drop the few minutes of the flash crash was mostly recovered by day end. It could be down about 1000 points intraday the day of the flash crash, then recover to down something like 400 points to end the day, then down something like 1400 points over the next month or two. Whatever the huge loss is intraday during the flash crash would be meaningless in practical terms because the margin departments would not have time to react. During the flash crash of 2010 most computer screens went blank.

[John]

> But now the problems are in view and they are more serious than in
> 2008. I think this crash is going to be like the Goldman
> executives discussed in Lewis' book - a flash crash times 10. A
> massive 1000 point crash in the S&P that takes place in
> minutes.

> Maybe not 1000 points in minutes, but in a week or month seems
> very possible.

> Your details are probably correct in practical terms. The big
> drop the few minutes of the flash crash was mostly recovered by
> day end. It could be down about 1000 points intraday the day of
> the flash crash, then recover to down something like 400 points to
> end the day, then down something like 1400 points over the next
> month or two. Whatever the huge loss is intraday during the flash
> crash would be meaningless in practical terms because the margin
> departments would not have time to react. During the flash crash
> of 2010 most computer screens went blank.

When you analyze these things, keep in mind that there are two
separate issues, and both are important.

In 1929, it took four years for the stock market to fully crash. But
when people talk about the 1929 crash, they're almost always talking
about Black Monday, August 28. (Or perhaps Black Thursday, August
24.) Even though the stock market partially recovered.

So something like the flash crash might be the day that's remembered
in history, even though the real damage is done in the months to
follow. That's why when I write about this stuff, I always try to
remember to phrase it as "the financial panic and crash," because
they're two different things.