Financial topics

[malleni]

I think that we were already talking quite much about fraud and manipulation in every sphere of "dollar based" system...
Manipulation in Treasuries, currencies, stocks..... simply in EACH pore this sick US system.

There are here some of people who refused to believe in the facts - even if those were repeatedly obvious...
Of course to "NOT believe" is so non-American and "the real patriots" do not it. They just simple "believe" government and every person who has as little as 0.000001% doubt in the government and the "system" - is just:
1. NON - American (simple)
2. American - but not "patriot"
3. American - but "stupid" because he(she) "believed in conspiracy theories".


Dear gentleman, please find this unbelievable video (and transcript) down now:

EVIDENCE OF GOVERNMENT MANIPULATION OF THE STOCK MARKET
http://myprops.org/content/EVIDENCE-OF- ... ranscript/

Why is it so interesting and plainly - unbelievable ?

There is not some "Internet pundit" here, who explains this AND more over it is not just "Internet conspiracy theory" this time...
It is one on main stream media (Fox Business News) and couple - professionals!!!

"...With 2 minutes 30 seconds remaining in the video, Dan Shaffer, President of Shaffer Asset Management, gives shocking evidence of direct government intervention in the stock market..."

Now when Fed (but even Administration, Treasury and any of famous US "regulators") were caught running a ponzi scheme - what you believe that investors around the Globe will do?
1. "Support the dollar" and those criminals (.... pardon "regulators")
2. or try to find anyhow some door - OUT (!) from this sick US system???

Should not be very difficult to predict...
(I am giving John this honor to "predict" further possible steps investors will made)

In my point of view - "The Confidence" will definitively not be supportive (it is destroyed!), as some believe, since I am sure that not just me (and you) looking different news - but many investors around the Globe - EVEN more in detail!!!

[Gordo]

...P/E1 is meaningful is because it's
historically valid. You say that P/E10 and P/PE will go down to 4-7
at the bottom, and I agree, but so will P/E1.

Not necessarily, and almost certainly not at the market bottom (perhaps later). At the market bottom, companies will have much lower earnings, who knows, could even be negative, in which case its not even possible to computer P/E1. If S&P 500 earnings drop to $5 and the S&P 500 is at $200, then P/E1 would be 40. I don't know why such a number would have any meaning to you whatsoever?

I also don't know why you keep ascribing magical properties to me. I never claimed to be a guru or to have the ability to perfectly pick market tops and bottoms. You don't need to to make money. I've been posting right here on this board when I go long or short. I'm nearly always early in my trades. That said, I don't only invest in stocks (as I've mentioned in the past). I own FDIC insured CDs, muni bonds, regularly sell options, and also trade commodities.

[jwfid]

Not necessarily, and almost certainly not at the market bottom (perhaps later). At the market bottom, companies will have much lower earnings, who knows, could even be negative, in which case its not even possible to computer P/E1. If S&P 500 earnings drop to $5 and the S&P 500 is at $200, then P/E1 would be 40. I don't know why such a number would have any meaning to you whatsoever?

Gordo,
Freddy posted a link to a graph that displays the history of the S&P 500 P/E ratio (reported earnings) since the 1920's. I've been studying this for awhile and anxiously awaiting Comstock's update for April. The highest P/E ratio ever reached before the current "recession" was around 2003 at a whopping 40 something! Holy cow! Guess what it was as of March 31?

119.8

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/026a.pdf



Freddy,
I was able to find the link to the S&P 500 index earnings spreadsheet you've been posting lately, but how are you getting the information to individual companies? Thanks.

John,
There was a question awhile back (it may have been Freddy) about dollar-cost averaging during the great depression. I had some spare time over the weekend and made a spreadsheet and pdf that I can send out, but I'm not sure how to post it in this forum. Basically the results came out that whether or not you started investing at the top in 1928-1929 or halfway to the bottom in 1931, you will come out ahead for the first time sometime between 1933 and 1936. However, in all circumstances you could still lose money all the way until the early 1940's depending on when you pulled your money out because of market fluctuations.

Joe

[jwfid]

Hi everyone,

Did anyone hear about what happened when Tim Geithner said while on a trip to China that Chinese assets in the US are safe? The audience laughed! My Internet link is slow, so I didn't get to actually watch the video, but Zero Hedge posted a short transcript and a link to the actual video here http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/o ... html#links

The kids in China know better. We in the West (especially here in the US) on the other hand, seem to be in some kind of orchestrated group-think self-denial thing. It's so scary. Back in September I remember hoping the 700 billion TARP would pass Congress, but now that I think back on it (hindsight is 20-20), I wish we had taken the pain right then instead of drinking the ice-cold tasty Kool Aid the Reverend Paulson offered all of us. This is some slippery-slope! I think I was just hoping the country could save most of what we had, when in fact a good portion was already gone. Oh well.

Joe

[John]

From a web site reader:

> What happened? Why are you not posting your negative thinking
> about the stock market anymore? Are you too scared to look foolish
> now? Damn it, why did I believe in your stupid thoughts. I missed
> this big rally because of you. Stop writing bullshit if you can't
> understand what's happening out there.

I started to write something last night, but I don't have anything
new to say. Nothing has changed.

These are the two articles that I referred you to a couple of weeks
ago, and one more that updates them:

** Stock market rally raises cautious, anxious hope among investors.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 09#e090509

** Wall Street Journal and Birinyi Associates are lying about P/E ratios
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 26#e090426

** Laszlo Birinyi provides insight on his fantasy price/earnings computations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 22#e090522

None of this has changed. We're still in a bear market rally, and
it's not unusual or surprising. During 1929-32, the market fell 90%,
and that included several rallies, one of which was longer and larger
than the one we're in now.

Take a look at the last article above, and read the section about the
"Principle of Maximum Ruin," and the quote from Galbraith's book.

You're in a highly emotional mood, and that's exactly the right mood
for people who are going to be victims of "Maximum Ruin."

If you want other people's opinions, feel free to join the
Generational Dynamics forum, and express your concerns there. This
kind of discussion -- pros and cons -- appears regularly, especially
in the "Financial Topics" thread.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... p?f=14&t=2

There are people in that thread who have been investing and making
money (especially Gordo, freddyv and Higgenbotham), but they have very
complex short/long strategies that I wouldn't recommend to anyone but
an expert. To anyone else, I strongly recommend preserving your cash
and staying out of the market.

I wish you the best of luck whatever you decide to do, but if you buy
long into this market, you're going to lose a lot of money.

Sincerely,

John

[wvbill]

From a web site reader:

> What happened? Why are you not posting your negative thinking
> about the stock market anymore? Are you too scared to look foolish
> now? Damn it, why did I believe in your stupid thoughts. I missed
> this big rally because of you. Stop writing bullshit if you can't
> understand what's happening out there.

I started to write something last night, but I don't have anything
new to say. Nothing has changed.

I agree with John -- John is talking about the long-term trend, which most in this forum agree is down.

Some are able to play the intermediate moves, such as the current bear market rally, but that is very dangerous:

I believe this market is being manipulated.
The rules keep changing.
The earnings reports are lies.
The media lies.
etc.

If you know what you are doing, and can handle the risk and emotion, this seems a good time to get into an inverse index ETF or Fund and just sit on it for 6 to 12 months.

Bill

[steveA]

I’m wondering why the post above by mellini on the Fed manipulating the market hasn’t gotten more discussion. It seems that major newspapers should be screaming in their headlines “Fed Manipulating Stock Market!” How bad must things be if the Fed has to print off and dump $20 billion into the market every week or so to keep it from crashing? Here’s another “green shoot” that has the government’s hands all over it. As Matt Stiles pointed out, this is all like Weekend at Bernies, with the government trying to prop up a dead economy.

[aedens]

I’m wondering why the post above by mellini on the Fed manipulating the market hasn’t gotten more discussion. It seems that major newspapers should be screaming in their headlines “Fed Manipulating Stock Market!” How bad must things be if the Fed has to print off and dump $20 billion into the market every week or so to keep it from crashing? Here’s another “green shoot” that has the government’s hands all over it. As Matt Stiles pointed out, this is all like Weekend at Bernies, with the government trying to prop up a dead economy.

Another view.... Failure to clarify by the Democrats own agenda which is fact, and the bloggers dangerous ability to see ahead of the curve in my opinion to date.
Sample flow of information:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staf ... /sr352.pdf

Blocking bank accounts and disrupting money flows is a sharp instrument that goes after those in power who are calling the shots. In many respects, conventional economic warfare is like carpet bombing; financial warfare is like precision strike. Neither one guarantees success, but the latter approach is usually more attractive. Above article illustrates the scope of capability.

Verification’s processes:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p1922

Hard currency are playing a more prevalent role in illicit movement so insert cartel press here if you survive there scope of inquiry. Gold is playing higher role in method of payment which is a running fact so comprehensive policy will garner progress if you read the press white noise carefully as of late again.

Financial and Economic Systems:
It is important to distinguish between financial and economic systems. This distinction is central to understanding the growing opportunities for financial warfare, as distinct from classic economic warfare. The economic system deals with the hard and soft outputs of the economy—that is, goods and services. The financial system deals with money and credit. In the modern financial system these can be very complicated. Bank credit, money transfers, stocks, bonds, and derivatives are the “stuff” of the financial system. It is a system built on confidence. There is trust that loans will be paid, that money transferred to an account will actually get there, and that money once placed in an account will not suddenly “disappear.”
The difficult question is the relationship between these two systems. After the 500-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on October 19, 1987, the Dow recovered to its pre-crash levels by the second half of 1989. The huge one-day hit in 1987 had little lasting effect on the real economy. At times the real economy can slow down, measured by GDP decline and increased unemployment, while financial markets boom. At other times, the underlying economics can be good, but finance bad—as in 1987.

Terrorist Networks:
The chief problems of denying funding to terrorist groups are that the amount of money they use is small, and the networks they rely on are mass market in character, and thus difficult to monitor without specific intelligence. Terrorist cells are unlikely to use large international networks for international funds transfer. Reports are that the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka have used on-line eBay and PayPal accounts for money laundering, arms trafficking, and other activities. Such small accounts are very difficult to monitor .
Terrorist funding is hard to disrupt, but even partial successes can have significant payoffs. One of the major lessons learned from cracking down on terrorist funding after 9/11 was the critical importance of the timing of financial attacks. Freezing suspects’ bank accounts requires worldwide coordination, since the seizures must come down nearly simultaneously.
Trends forward:

Financial tracking of their bank accounts can reveal where they keep their money and who has access to their accounts. This creates the conditions for potentially ruinous attacks with far-reaching social implications on the national leadership. Were a national elite’s overseas bank accounts frozen and their homes targeted with cruise missiles, simultaneously, a hyper-decapitation attack could destroy a nation’s leadership. Clearly, this represents a large escalation. But there are many possibilities which fall short of this, and these constitute an important type of strategy: counter-elite targeting. Counter elite targeting has been considered in the past, both in the Cold War, with nuclear weapons, and more recently in conflicts in Kosovo and Iraq. But the 21st century is likely to see considerably more applications of it. People that think the dollar is an issue need a bucket cold water in there face at four a.m to suggest in there myopic view that the dollar is the issue to date. Freedom is never easy maintain and impossible to get back once lost. Financial warfare complements military operations as well as information operations. When combined with advances in social network mapping, it can give a highly detailed picture of elite’s communication and financial structure that can be used for targeting. Communication and software tools now exist to analyze connections in vast networks of heterogeneous information, such as financial transactions, mobile telephone calls, e-mail, and air travel. This gigantic information pool can be a source of knowledge about a nation’s elite, where they stash their money, who they talk to, and their position in a social hierarchy. The key to doing this lies in constructing overlays of these datasets to visualize the various connections. As for the pipeline issues at the end of the day volume of the market I can live with that since core issues exist and I think Uncle Ben needs to assist to a better context of needed military coordination’s. In my retired ISP view we need to facilitate better public understanding. Back then the Feds wanted us to do the work but we where rather busy building client and local interstate fiber optic’s so we really just conveyed facts of the day and secured our daily operation then and said get to work. They do work for us as we reminded them. I asked some sysop’s wtf as of late and they laughed, since we are plugging client’s holes but all is well…. Evil only prevails when good stands by. Do you really wish the dollar delinked or more SDR? In my opinion zone currencies of SDR may be needed so do not get in a twist over it.

Nationwide, there are factories and joint ventures with at least 11 foreign automakers, including General Motors, which opened a $300 million plant near St. Petersburg in November. In general, then-President Vladimir Putin set the stage for this politically driven historical bias when he referred to the collapse of the Soviet Union as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Regarding questions of history, it seems that Medvedev is dutifully following in Putin's footsteps. And this once again demonstrates who is really calling the shots in the country.
You just got to love the Moscow press. All spectrum's of Government to date are the same over sized and over confident China included. These events are going to bite them in the ass sooner or later. As stated fixed capital until October...
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/377681.htm
Nissan is the third carmaker to build a plant in St. Petersburg after Toyota and Ford, prompting Matviyenko to declare at the ceremony that the city had built a copy of Detroit. Think about that Taxpayer before the libtards give it all away in both party's.

[freddyv]

From a web site reader:

> What happened? Why are you not posting your negative thinking
> about the stock market anymore? Are you too scared to look foolish
> now? Damn it, why did I believe in your stupid thoughts. I missed
> this big rally because of you. Stop writing bullshit if you can't
> understand what's happening out there.

...

There are people in that thread who have been investing and making
money (especially Gordo, freddyv and Higgenbotham), but they have very
complex short/long strategies that I wouldn't recommend to anyone but
an expert.
....

I want to chime in on that last comment about who's making money and how and why I am investing in this market.

First of all my investing perspective is actually rather simple and I will try to detail it here:

1. I see plenty of data to tell me that our entire economy is going to be in trouble for a long time; years at least, perhaps much longer.

2. I pay for the advice if a handful of people who are much more experienced than me and each has a specialty. I also take in as much DATA as I can process and try to keep it all in perspective.

3. I invest via a retirement account that limits my trading but allows me to trade tax-free, at least for another decade and a half.

4. I have my own business that is easily the center of my financial stability.

Number 4 is the key for me. I am more aggressive with my hedging to the short side because I would be in very bad shape if the economy were to truly go to hell and take my business with it. Therefore, if that happens, I expect to at least have a nice nest egg in my SEP IRA.

Let me also state that I have been taking a beating for quite a few weeks now as I build a position in my two favorite shorts, SDS and SRS. Yes, at times it is hard to take, seeing these positions lose value but I am committed to doing what the vast majority of investors can not do: stick to a plan that makes sense. My plan makes sense for me. I recommend it for no one else but I like to share it honestly so that others' will consider how it may or may not apply to them. I am not a sophisticated investor or a day trader. The simpler my strategy is and the more I listen to and rely on really knowledgable people (Richard Russell is my favorite and he called this rally right at the bottom) the better I seem to do and the more calm I am, even when losing money. No one makes money all the time. Right now the market is playing on our fear and our greed, which is what the market does. Just as the holdouts capitulate there will be no more buyers and down we go. That's how this bear market got started - there were no more suckers left with credit and so down we went. Decades of indulgence doesn't all get fixed in a year and a half. A year-and-a-half in which we created greater problems than we started with.

In truth I hope the economy continues from this little boom to a full-fledged boom because I can easily make up from my business what I will lose in my IRA. I also do not want to see my country sliding into a black hole of debt but that is exactly what I see. I see a lot coming at us in the next 6 months and most of it is not good. I think this is a classic bear market, relief rally that will turn as quickly as Jim Cramer can call a bottom or a bull market. All we need is a bit of over-confidence.

The Current Headlines on CNBC:

Dow at 14,000 in Two Years

Pros Say: S&P 1,200 Still Possible This Year

Rally Can Carry on Another 10-15%

Cramer: This Is a Bull Market

BTW, I didn't change the order of these. These four were at the top of CNBC's web site today.

--Fred

[malleni]

I’m wondering why the post above by mellini on the Fed manipulating the market hasn’t gotten more discussion. It seems that major newspapers should be screaming in their headlines “Fed Manipulating Stock Market!” How bad must things be if the Fed has to print off and dump $20 billion into the market every week or so to keep it from crashing? Here’s another “green shoot” that has the government’s hands all over it. As Matt Stiles pointed out, this is all like Weekend at Bernies, with the government trying to prop up a dead economy.

Another view.....

Aedens,

In my point of view - it is definitely not so complicated as you described in this text.

The things are so simple and no "bloggers" find it, but main stream media as said and professional finance "pundit" Dan Shaffer, President of Shaffer Asset Management.
It handling about - obvious fraud and manipulation of US financial system.
Now so obvious that even mainstream media reporting it.

I really do not see the reason to "explain" obvious fraud with 1000 words.

If you do not want to see this short video - here is transcript:
"...
With 2 minutes 30 seconds remaining in the video, Dan Shaffer, President of Shaffer Asset Management, gives shocking evidence of direct government intervention in the stock market:

“Something strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this -- there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures.
I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break, and it shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day –
it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way.
Who has that kind of money to move this market?

On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issued secondaries – they issues stock – they raised capital into this rally.
It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets – now that the stock has been issued…” [interrupted by Richard Suttmeier].
..."

Even for one non-English native speaker - this is so clear that I really do not understand what more explanation are need (even without "bloggers").

Simple Mr. Shaffer said -
that "someone" fraudulently put BILLIONS in future contracts ("printed money") always in last par minutes before closing stock markets.
Everybody know that there are not so much "foreign power" but FED who can do it.

Which explanation need to be given additionally?
... I do not know...?


As an answer on your incredible long text "on support" to the "dollar wall" and Israel fallen policy
yesterday:
-China’s Yu Tells U.S. Not to Be Complacent About Debt
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=bond
today:
- BRIC May Discuss Moving From Dollar
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31061545

Short and effective.
Fraud is so obvious that 10 trillion words - can not hide it any more...