5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms

[John]

5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms

US officials plan for military strike on North Korea

** 5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171205



Contents:
Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush
US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war
Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Houthis, Iran,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
North Korea, China, Russia, H.R. McMaster, Lindsey Graham,
Ralph Peters, Theresa May, Ireland, Leo Varadkar,
Arlene Foster, Democratic Unionist Party, DUP,
Jeremy Corbyn, Irish Republican Army, IRA

[Tom Mazanec]

So we estimate 10-18 months?
IIRC, we underestimated how quickly Russia would get a nuclear capability,
we underestimated how quickly China would get a nuclear capability and
we underestimated how quickly Pakistan would get a nuclear capability (IE, we thought it would take longer than it did).
We might not have 10-18 days.

[John]

Do you mean underestimate or overestimate?

[zzazz]

Yes, there might be war with NK. But if there is war,the primary reason will be to allow President Trump evade the law and conceal his crimes. And if it turns out that 20 million people die, then generational dynamics will have been completely debunked, since those 20,000,000 will have died because of just one immoral man.

[Tom Mazanec]

Yes, there might be war with NK. But if there is war,the primary reason will be to allow President Trump evade the law and conceal his crimes. And if it turns out that 20 million people die, then generational dynamics will have been completely debunked, since those 20,000,000 will have died because of just one immoral man.

Just like one immoral German artist with a toothbrush mustache caused the 50,000,000 deaths of WWII?
And one presidential election caused the ACW?
And one insane king caused the American Revolution?
And of course Trump solely voted himself into office (and I speak as someone who held my nose and voted for him...but I voted for Kasich in the Primary).

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Yes, there might be war with NK. But if there is war,the primary reason will be to allow President Trump evade the law and conceal his crimes. And if it turns out that 20 million people die, then generational dynamics will have been completely debunked, since those 20,000,000 will have died because of just one immoral man.

I'm sorry. You'll (Zzazz'll) have to explain the various linkages between "Trump's Crimes" and "War with NK", as I'm MUCH to dense to see them, apparently.

Sounds like a stretch, though a REALLY nifty story. Do tell..!!

Aloha! <big energetic shaka!>

[Tom Mazanec]

Rising rhetoric increases likelihood of war: http://www.newsweek.com/trumps-risky-ga ... war-730814

[John]

> Rising rhetoric increases likelihood of war:
> http://www.newsweek.com/trumps-risky-ga ... war-730814

These analysts are complete idiots. I listen to these people all day
on the BBC and other stations, and they sound like they just got out
of college after majoring in sociology or women's studies. There is
zero probability that Kim would attack right now, because he isn't
ready, and if Kim does, then the retaliation would be enormous.
Practically every statement in that Newsweek article is total idiocy,
but Newsweek and pretty much all the mainstream media are by idiots for
idiots.

[Guest]

6-18 months seems way too far out for a war in North Korea.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Do you guys REALLY imagine that China would allow a war on their doorstep?

I can see NK doing some seriously stupid "stuff", but NK isn't capable (in my opinion) of successfully chucking a nuke that will actually function properly.

I could be wrong. That goes without saying.

If they launch a missile with the "wrong" trajectory, that would be considered by everyone an initial attack, whereupon China would do as they said, and allow an attack on NK. Would that be a "war" between the US and NK? My opinion is that within minutes, if not moments, of unit military commanders seeing "big juju bang-bang" they will refuse orders and rid themselves of a few gastric parasites.

So,.. we'll see I suppose, won't we?

But, on the timeframe question: Until NK successfully launches a missile whose warhead survives reentry, they won't be launching anything on that "wrong" trajectory which will precipitate a reaction. I have no clue as to what the 6-18 months estimate is based, but we need a few more "test launches" to endure before NK is "ready", however long that takes.

Aloha!<shaka!>