5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms

[Guest]

Maybe NK can only deliver one or two nukes, but if it is an EMP attack that could theoretically kill a couple hundred million Americans.

Theoretically is a word used for discussing possibilities. People don't make decisions on theories they make them on realities, this isn't a philosophy class.

[Maverick]

The */SCMP/* article quoted "Chinese military expert" Li Jie who said
the drills were intended to show that the People's Liberation Army Air
Force was making strides in joint operations, which are an important
part of modern warfare.

If I'm not mistaken is this the first time China has openly admitted they are preparing for war?
Totally misjudged China. I thought when they said they would slowly become more open they were lying.
Looks like they were telling the truth.

Shen said Chinese combat aircraft flew in airspace they had never
flown before. He also said that this kind of training would become a
regular feature as the air force worked to strengthen its capabilities
so that it was ready to safeguard China's strategic interests.
...
Li also said that Monday's announcement also was aimed at sending a
message to the United States and South Korea.

"The timing of this high-profile announcement by the PLA also is a
warning to Washington and Seoul not to provoke Pyongyang any further,"
Li said.

I know finger pointing in the nature of this and each side is going to see it
their way but just to be clear: repeated missile launched by NK 3 months of
calm on both sides then missile launch by NK and US responds but the US is the provocateur?

Although this feels like years ago, merely months ago china held the position that NK was
a rouge state and was provoking instability and that china would help stop NK.
As a part of this the US imposed pressure and sanctions that china went along with.
They were all on board until this latest missile launch at which point
they have completely changed course even though China too could assert pressure.
In fact from the US side the only options of pressure left are to completely disarm NK.
So NK is a bad guy and pressure is okay on launches 1,2, 3 but after 4 when
the US has exhausted all options leading up to 4, pressure suddenly becomes provocation?
We are supposedly on the same side trying to solve the same problem and china has options that
we don't. Instead they decide to double down on trying to prevent the next step the
US can take and has control over rather than taking steps itself to resolve the problem.
Not only that they decide to take this opportunity to paint the US as the bad guy.

[John]

Well, this doesn't surprise me in the least. For well over ten years
I've been saying that we're headed for war with China, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis. But you don't really need any complex
analysis to see it. China has been developing multiple missile
systems with no other purpose than to attack American aircraft
carriers, cities and bases. Those missiles are going to be used with
absolute certainty. The only question is when. And they've built
several large military bases in the South China Sea, and they have
militarized ports scattered across the India Ocean which have no other
purpose than for war with America and India.

As for North Korea, China has never had any reason to disarm them.
Those missiles are pointed at us, and they'll just add to China's
attack on us. They've been playing a diplomatic game with NK because
Kim has been so contemptuous of them, but China's goal is not to
disarm NK but to bring them in line with China's policies, especially
to reunite all of Korea under Chinese control.

Finally, to say that China is lying is almost a joke. China never
does anything else but lie, while preparing to launch their full-scale
attack on the United States.

[Guest]

Agreed. A lot of the time I feel the only thing that has changed since Mao is they decided to allow just enough capitalism to advance their power and put on a good face for the west. That is until the day they decide it right to fly their true colors. As much as I'd like to think fighting communism to my death is an option it isn't. The fact is once the communists take everything you can give them they will take your freedom. After that they'll take your life.

I hope everyone is doing well and I pray for us all for the path ahead.

[JCP]

Woe to the vanquished

If you are a liberal and pacifist, and you refuse to fight, and a lot of your countrymen feel the same way, your country will be defeated. And if your country is defeated, your women will be raped. You will be enslaved, tortured, and if lucky, quickly murdered. If you you live, you won't be a man. You will worse than a dog. You will regret that you were ever born.

I'm sick to death of the SJWs attacking Trump. President Trump inherited the mess of four Presidents. He is doing the best he can. And these weasels, and they are weasels, are trying to undermine him. The American media and late night talk show hosts-who have elevated into positions of influence they shouldn't have and certainly don't deserve- are destroying America and sowing global chaos. It's the traitors within citizens should fear. The neocons, many of them ex-military, are traitors. The liberals, more concerned with trivialities, are useless idiots for our enemies. And the liberals, the SJWs, die of paper cuts. How will these people be of any help?

I don't even want to write anymore. It's pointless. These people, from different political spectrums, have destroyed my country for their own selfish ans shortsighted reasons.

Good night.

[John]

The discussion in this thread reflects a continuing evolution in
public perception of the danger that America is facing.

12-15 years ago, when I wrote about the danger of world war (or, for
that matter, the danger of a global financial panic and crash), most
people who paid any attention at all treated those warnings as the
equivalent of warning about an invasion from Mars. Many people that
I'd known for years simply assumed that in my dotage I had lost my
mind.

Over the years, more and more people are realizing how great the
danger is to America. For me personally, this change in public
perception has meant that people who thought I was a kook came to
ignore me or hate me or attack me, as in the Cassandra / Jeremiah /
Churchill paradigm.

For the public at large, there have been two parallel trends. One
group of people (the intelligent ones) have become increasingly
somber, either accepting that what will happen will happen, or making
some sort of plans -- everything from stocking up on guns, food,
medicines and water to moving their families to the Midwest to become
survivalists. The discussion in this thread could not have happened a
few years ago, but is happening now because of this increasingly
somber realization.

The other group of people (the dumb ones, generally supported by the
media) have not recognized anything of the danger to America, and are
suffering from a bad and continually worsening case of cognitive
dissonance. Their reaction is to double down on social issues, and to
attack anyone (Trump) who reminds them of the real danger, and then to
blame such people for being the cause of the danger.

There is a story (perhaps apocryphal) that when the Ottoman Muslims
were approaching the center of Constantinople for the final conquest
of the Byzantine Empire in 1453, the people of the Senate were having
a lengthy political debate about whether angels were male or female.
They were still arguing when the Ottomans reached them and killed
them.

The debate over whether angels are male or female must have been
exciting. One can imagine the feminists of the day using words like
"misogynists" (and "misogyny" is, after all, a Greek word) to ridicule
other Senators, saying that just because someone is a woman doesn't
mean she can't be an angel. (This is a reversal from today's culture,
where angels are almost always thought to be female.) That's a lot
more fun to argue about than worrying about the approaching doom. The
Senate debate over angels probably got increasingly bitter and
vitriolic and went on for a long time, until finally the approaching
fires of hell came within earshot.

So today the same thing is happening. The politicians and the media
can't talk about anything else besides forcing the resignation of any
man who may have said something insensitive to a woman 30 years ago.
Although the Mideast "peace process" has been dead for years, and the
number of wars in the Mideast has been growing regularly, Trump's
Jerusalem announcement is being blamed for the end of the "peace
process" and the threat of Mideast war. Although North Korea has been
developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and threatening war
with America for years, it's easier to blame Trump's tweets.

As the old saying goes, if something can't go on forever, then it
won't.

[Awakened]

It seems the recurring question with all of this is when. There are a lot of coming events ahead that more or less have to happen but no one knows how it will unfold. Everyone's "awakening" path is going to be different. For me personally it was when Trump was elected. When Brexit occurred I said to myself "holy shit Trump is going to win" and then I put it to the back of my mind. Come election day I was sure Clinton would win and when I went to bed that night it was pretty clear Trump was going to win. In the subsequent days I was in a "funk" of sorts. I could feel with Brexit and the election of Trump this signaled a shift. This wasn't your run of the mill political upset. It was something deeper. Being a curious person always wanting to understand the world I dug into this problem and ended up with GD. I think I share this story because I wanted to show that what will pop some people's bubble is just more random noise for others. I think because of the painful implications of the situation for this "awakening" process to occur writ large we will need a less ambiguous large scale event. If there is ambiguity people will cling onto their currently held beliefs than risk considering a painful alternative. The question is what type of event could this be? when will it occur? and will it occur before it is "too late"? The other challenging aspect is an event of this scale can't really be manufactured. Any attempt will likely be misconstrued by the other side as just another political tactic in the never ending political battles. I suspect our enemies know this. Many of them continue to echo the garbage they see in our media because of this reason. In thinking about this I'm not even sure if it would be a domestic or international event. The people in my life's seeming ignorance on international events (even to some degree those who work internationally) seems like that might not be where it comes from.

I think many Americans know at a very intuitive level how corrupt the system is. I don't think any American would argue that point with you. They all feel it. I think the problem is they haven't connected this to the bigger picture. They haven't made all of the connections. I know multiple people in my life that will bring up how corrupt this country is and in the next breath bash Trump. I'm not sure why this is. It's like they can't see the distinction. They don't see the constant attacks on him by the establishment as being an indication that he is largely separate from the establishment. In their mind he is someone who exists in a state of being "one of them" since he got elected and simultaneously hated by all of them. I think the most probable explanation is because they are so immersed in it they don't recognize it. I know at least in my case it was largely the media. It is so ubiquitous it surrounds us like a fish in water. It isn't until someone comes along and asks, "how's the water" that you see it for what it is.

If it is of any solace I think (in large part due to collective thought in America) we face a social structure illustrated in the prince.

principalities recorded in history have been governed in two different ways:either by a single individual ... or by a monarch together with barons

He goes on to say taking over a principality ruled by a single individual is much harder because everyone in that system is indebted to the single ruler, but once it is taken it is easily held onto. On the other side the monarch is easier to over throw (the via the barons) but harder to hold onto because the barons that brought you to power can be used by someone else to do the same. I view the establishment as a very strongly united opposition much like being ruled by a single individual. Its a hard and long fought battle to overcome an opponent (shit they've pretty much united a large amount of the country against Trump) but once overcome and their power crumbles America will be won wholesale with no going back. I think I see this as part of the process of America's consolidation into one. I think it is a battle, that while not easily won, can be won.

[Awakened]

In regards to SJWs/Millennials: I can't provide a strong argument to them "toughing up". However, in some respects I think they are tougher than perceived. It certainly helps that they are endlessly shit on even though they are more ambitious than given credit for IMO. Social Justice Warrior is a good term for them. While it is meant as a slam it is a reflection of their attitudes. They place greater value on fighting for perceived injustices. While currently focused on the minutiae of perceived social injustices I think once they see the greater injustices plaguing the world they will eventually just become Justice Warriors or better yet Warriors. I think with time and when our enemies true colors come to the surface things will change.

[John]

Let's not forget that when the next crisis war begins, the Millennials
will willingly march off to war, and become the next Greatest
Generation.

[Tom Mazanec]

either accepting that what will happen will happen
That's me.
And it has been me since I read Generations in 1991.