Financial topics

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=OysKOBwG

H

Think you will see by mid day what sentiment conveys on direction. Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:10 am
First we turned off cnbc then we watched the blue screen of death as cnn, fox needs to be careful
and I think they know this.

Alot of smart people think they can fade reality with debt. We are back to the risk premium out of our control.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... k-buybacks

selah

the starting point of the concept of faith

[Higgenbotham]

I am raising cash.

I take that to mean you think stocks will plunge this week?

I just took a big short position but I must be the only person in the world who thinks the market can still plunge. Everyone I read and talk to is now either bullish or afraid to short.

My chart is showing the high was at 2:31 a.m. Central. I went short at 2:21 a.m. Central 3/4 of a point from the high. This is the highest price since the market crashed 5 weeks ago. Today it is down about 20 points from the overnight high.

We'll see how it goes from here. I was a little uncertain about this one because everyone is so rabidly bullish. Sometimes the bulls are right for awhile but the fundamentals of this economy are simply awful.

[aeden]

Empirical knowledge base of the current progressives political pressure groups cannot push the market down. Not making a decision is one and not acting right now is better for me. Alpha decay is a choice made in avarice as they covet. That House will fail in intent and purpose. As I noted the ROC will have to shift and we seen the numbers which do not announce a drift down. In the political sense it was forwarded a man of too many friends comes to ruin as the foundation is set we are warned. He fears the Lord, hates what is false and He shuns evil. We all have made errors but we are warned those above others are to be held to a higher account. This is not being done. I can forward the thought map from the four markers as we enter the convergences which will. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/exter-in ... -refresher

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... race-crash

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=lMk3H5xu

mustard, in the study, with a candlestick

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDW3D_MJ1y0

[Higgenbotham]

None of the stuff on zero hedge ever helps me to figure out when and where to get short. But today's high looks pretty good in hindsight for a short. Also, the high and the rebound high of today are centered on the February 16 9 year high-low-high off of March 24, 2000 and March 6, 2009. And the test of 2800 was discussed a few weeks ago here.

I can't find anyone who wants to be short. I called my broker and he confirmed nobody he knows of wants to be short. He was telling me about people who were saying the market was very stretched back at 2500 and 2600 and were holding short but now that the parabolic blowoff has collapsed will not go short.

[aeden]

If you made it past mid day ramp into the close you made money.
Today was not my view at all. I will wait for another smack down in
bills and build another short but not this week H. I have no need to
as we are.

t noted how 'odd' the surge in stocks was relative to the unchanged levels of bonds, dollar, and gold
@ 11:48
If i was going to decide it was at lunch so as conveyed nothing is a decision also.

~@09:45 was dead bang bottom to get in, and out into the end ramp.

As noted the algo's looked to be re-tuning it was mentioned.

No way will I mess with this current swing trade noise.

[Higgenbotham]

There were a lot of bears on this forum at one time, but none to be found this year. I'm specifically recalling freddyv, Matt1989, mannfm11, etc. And we don't want to forget vince.

The other day I was thinking to ask John what a mean reversion would look like in a case where he felt it should have reverted to the trendline and below to Dow 3000 whereas instead it has drifter further and further above the trendline.

After today, I'm really thinking a crash may be possible this week and next. I wasn't so sure last night.

I agree you don't want to mess with the noise. I told a guy who was advocating that to forgo short term gains to get as short as possible for a drop that may occur. That was my strategy. 20 points up and down will mean nothing if he wakes up one morning and the S&P is down 400 points.

[John]

> The other day I was thinking to ask John what a mean reversion
> would look like in a case where he felt it should have reverted to
> the trendline and below to Dow 3000 whereas instead it has drifter
> further and further above the trendline.

I haven't updated this chart since 2015:



The area above the blue line has to equal the area below the blue
line. If the red line stays above the blue line for a long time, then
the red line will have to stay below the blue line for an equivalent
length of time.

Back in 2007, a web site reader updated my graph at that time to
illustrate this:



So even back in 2007, there was still a need for a lot of green below
the line to make up for the accumulated purple above the line. Today,
there's a lot more purple, so a lot more green will be needed. The
could mean that the P/E ratio could fall to 5 for a long period of
time, or fall close to 0 for a shorter period of time -- which could
mean that the Dow could fall below 1000. Or, maybe it'll be a new
dark age.

[Higgenbotham]

So even back in 2007, there was still a need for a lot of green below
the line to make up for the accumulated purple above the line. Today,
there's a lot more purple, so a lot more green will be needed. The
could mean that the P/E ratio could fall to 5 for a long period of
time, or fall close to 0 for a shorter period of time -- which could
mean that the Dow could fall below 1000. Or, maybe it'll be a new
dark age.

Thanks, John, that's the kind of explanation I was hoping for. I had considered the much more serious short term fall but hadn't thought of the alternative of the Dow staying moderately low for a very long time.

[Higgenbotham]

John, you may find this interesting.

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