Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: I can't find anyone who wants to be short. I called my broker and he confirmed nobody he knows of wants to be short. He was telling me about people who were saying the market was very stretched back at 2500 and 2600 and were holding short but now that the parabolic blowoff has collapsed will not go short.
aeden wrote:I will wait for another smack down in bills and build another short but not this week H. I have no need to as we are.
I have a theory as to why nobody wants to go short at what appears to be a very good place to do so (only time will tell whether it really is). It's really very simple. The market has been going up for 9 years and for 9 years anybody who sold stocks or sold short has lost money or at least seen the market go above their decision point to sell or get short. It doesn't seem likely to anyone that yesterday would have been the right day to go short when it hasn't been the right day for the previous approximately 3279 out of 3289 days (the only exceptions being the 10 or so days in late January that the market was higher than it is now). Viewed that way, not going short is good common sense.

I finally did find someone who would like to go short. But he can't. He lost all his money going short and is broke and working a part time job.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote:John, you may find this interesting.
Innovation with IBM Watson

The underlying fund investments in AIEQ are based on the results of proprietary quantitative models developed by Equbot with IBM Watson artificial intelligence.

Fund Summary
TICKER AIEQ
EXPENSE RATIO 0.75%
INCEPTION DATE 10/18/2017
http://www.equbotetf.com/

Yeah, but you've already said that you can do better than the algos.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote:John, you may find this interesting.
Innovation with IBM Watson

The underlying fund investments in AIEQ are based on the results of proprietary quantitative models developed by Equbot with IBM Watson artificial intelligence.

Fund Summary
TICKER AIEQ
EXPENSE RATIO 0.75%
INCEPTION DATE 10/18/2017
http://www.equbotetf.com/

Yeah, but you've already said that you can do better than the algos.
I noticed the fund is performing poorly. So much for Watson being a good stock picker. But I don't pick stocks, so maybe I can't do any better there.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > John, you may find this interesting.
> http://www.equbotetf.com/
John wrote: > Yeah, but you've already said that you can do better than the
> algos.
Higgenbotham wrote: > I noticed the fund is performing poorly. So much for Watson being
> a good stock picker. But I don't pick stocks, so maybe I can't do
> any better there.

Watson is a general purpose AI tool whose strength is assimilating
large amounts of textual data. There's no reason to believe a general
purpose tool like that could pick stocks better than a special purpose
algorithm specifically designed to pick stocks.

The only way that Watson could have an advantage is if a way were
found, say, to have Watson read lots of news stories online and use
that information to pick stocks. But I don't believe that's possible,
given that online news stories tend to lag the actual news.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote: Watson is a general purpose AI tool whose strength is assimilating
large amounts of textual data. There's no reason to believe a general
purpose tool like that could pick stocks better than a special purpose
algorithm specifically designed to pick stocks.

The only way that Watson could have an advantage is if a way were
found, say, to have Watson read lots of news stories online and use
that information to pick stocks. But I don't believe that's possible,
given that online news stories tend to lag the actual news.
I saw a video about the fund that said something to that effect - that it was reading news.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

On second thought, I shouldn't be so quick to say that Watson doesn't
have an advantage. If you take a high quality special-purpose stock
picking algorithm, and figure out a way to augment it with conclusions
reached from real time news -- which is presumably the sort of thing
that you and other human stock pickers do -- then the combined
algorithm should have an advantage.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

https://www.marketwatch.com/video/secto ... 95668.html

Performance since inception vs Nasdaq index:

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
> capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and
> violently.
Core vs periphery / A history of the European core and its periphery:
How an optimal currency area forms

https://voxeu.org/article/history-europ ... -periphery

*** 1993 - summary of countries in core and periphery:
Core: Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and Denmark
Periphery: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, UK

*** Today - summary of countries in core and periphery:
Core: Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands
Intermediate, trending to core: Spain
Intermediate, trending to periphery: Sweden, Greece
Deep-seated Periphery: Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I just got an email from someone who runs a stock market advisory service (makes recommendations to clients on whether to buy or short the stock market). The email said he is long now, but wanted to know if the market crashes when it would make a low.

I think everyone can draw the appropriate conclusions.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > I just got an email from someone who runs a stock market advisory
> service (makes recommendations to clients on whether to buy or
> short the stock market). The email said he is long now, but
> wanted to know if the market crashes when it would make a low.

> I think everyone can draw the appropriate conclusions.
Tell him 85 days, 9 hours, 43 minutes, 28 seconds later. Guaranteed.
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