Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

The Nikkei is up 1% and banging on some support/resistance. The Nikkei has been the worst performer among major world indees of late (so far as I know anyway).

[Higgenbotham]

If we wanted to stretch the Gann Death Window to the max we can use the January 28 futures high and add 56 days to that, which would be right now. 56 days was the point at which the 1929 crash was over. After that, a rebound of several days started, a lower low was made November 13, 1929, then a 5 month rally ended April 17, 1930, after which the big move down to the July 1932 bottom occurred.

The initial move down from the 1989 high in the Nikkei was more than 56 days, as can be seen on the chart I posted this weekend. But at this point, it had already taken out the equivalent of the February 9 low.

[aeden]

Well, John vaunted Gremlins are all asymmetrical surveillance derived as the bumpitrage cheap money hedge funds that scare the Liberal Brexiteers and Velvit Ropers who are finding this global market place a bit frightening. The point is some firms are using options to protect themselves who just may see that bony finger of ineptitude staring at themselves also. No clue H, but the cargo cults adopted patterns are being ripped apart by unintended consequences of the debased currency's.

As for this week we approached the confluence of data fragility since flow is the only thing the market understands.

[Higgenbotham]

[Higgenbotham]

Morning Call: U.S. Stocks Soar As Concerns About A U.S.-China Trade War Ease; Jun E-Mini S&Ps Up +1.23%; Dollar Index Down -0.23% At A 5-Week Low.

Barchart.com - 1 hour ago

Overnight Markets And News

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +1.19%) this morning are up sharply by +1.23% and European stocks are up +0.49% as concerns eased over a China/U.S. trade war. The WSJ reported that unidentified people with knowledge of the matter said China and the U.S. have quietly started negotiations to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets. The talks are led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. trade representative Lighthizer and Chinese President Jinping's top economic aid Liu He. On a Sunday news show, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he's "cautiously hopeful" that China will reach a deal to avoid tariffs. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.72%, Hong Kong +0.79%, China -0.60%, Taiwan +0.15%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.26%, South Korea +0.79%, India +1.44%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-1/2 month low, although closed well above its lows, and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rebounded from a 5-3/4 month low and closed higher on optimism the U.S. and China can reach an agreement over trade tariffs.

[Higgenbotham]

US and South Korea revamp trade deal that Trump called 'horrible'
by Daniel Shane @CNNMoney
March 26, 2018: 8:15 AM ET

The United States and South Korea have agreed to settle their differences on trade.

The South Korean government said Monday that the two countries had struck a deal on a new version of the free trade agreement that has linked the two economies for the past six years.

South Korea has also secured a partial exemption from President Donald Trump's new steel tariffs.

Trump had been hugely critical of the existing trade deal between the two countries, slamming it as "horrible" and threatening to yank the United States out of it altogether. That raised fears of a damaging dispute that could drive a wedge between the United States and one of its closest allies in Asia. South Korea is the United States' sixth-biggest trading partner.

But after starting talks in January to renegotiate the deal, which is known as Korus, the two sides have now reached agreement on the key points, according to top officials from both countries.

Despite Trump's threats, South Korea appears to have emerged from the talks "unscathed," said Krystal Tan, an Asia economist at research firm Capital Economics.

"The concessions that Korea has agreed to will have a very small impact on its economy," she wrote in a note to clients.

Under the revised deal, US automakers will get greater access to the South Korean market. Far more cars are shipped from South Korea to the United States than in the other direction, making up a big chunk of the $23 billion annual trade deficit between the two countries.

"On the whole, this is a good result," said Troy Stangarone, a senior director at the Korea Economic Institute of America, a Washington-based think tank.

[Higgenbotham]

Political opinions aren't worth much as far as predicting the stock market goes, but it's my personal opinion that Trump's getting tough on Chinese IP theft is long overdue (like about 2 decades overdue). I posted a few years back that the SF FBI office devotes all of their resources to Chinese IP theft. That needs to change. It's my personal opinion that the Trump tariffs are the best solution to this problem and are fabulous for American business and the stock market. I think the stock market has had an uncalled for mini panic over this.

This wasn't worth a whole lot or very predictive because it's hard for someone on the outside to know how quickly the US could move to renegotiate these trade deals. But it appears this was the correct read of the tea leaves, at least for the moment.

The Chinese have been shown by the example of South Korea what they need to do.

[Higgenbotham]

As an investor, my first job this morning is to buy stocks that I already picked out that would benefit from this news. Besides picking these stocks out, I also put a strict cap on how much I would spend on these stocks - no more than 1.5% of my money today.

[John]

The Dow was up 400+ points within 45 seconds of opening. If it could
go up 400+ points today within 45 seconds, then it could go down 400+
points within 45 seconds on another day.

[Higgenbotham]

The Dow was up 400+ points within 45 seconds of opening. If it could
go up 400+ points today within 45 seconds, then it could go down 400+
points within 45 seconds on another day.

Stocks usually go down a lot faster than they go up too.