John wrote:The Dow was up 400+ points within 45 seconds of opening. If it could
go up 400+ points today within 45 seconds, then it could go down 400+
points within 45 seconds on another day.
Stocks usually go down a lot faster than they go up too.
The Dow futures are up 700 from Friday's close (up another 100 tonight).
I just went short again. I am more likely to hold short from here. I'm a lot less skeptical than last night. Of course nobody really knows on any given day whether the market will continue lower, go up and turn back down, or whether a longer term low has been reached.
My guess is that while the news that hit last night and today was good, the Chinese will not negotiate as readily as the South Koreans. And there are many other factors to consider.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
They are picking raisins out of crap piles as we speak H. Leveraged loans at 175 basis points over Libor (the tightest spread seen since the crisis) in the prior month than in the past ten years combined. Friday was one side running to other is not a solution but the frequency wave should settle down but flow will decide. Trust will be short supply but opinions will wane also. As your chart indicated you seen it two years before many even had a clue. We still live in a nation that solitary confinement is utilized for minor infractions including possessing of contraband like expired toothpaste.
Higgenbotham wrote:
> The Dow futures are up 700 from Friday's close (up another 100
> tonight).
> I just went short again. I am more likely to hold short from
> here. I'm a lot less skeptical than last night. Of course nobody
> really knows on any given day whether the market will continue
> lower, go up and turn back down, or whether a longer term low has
> been reached.
> My guess is that while the news that hit last night and today was
> good, the Chinese will not negotiate as readily as the South
> Koreans. And there are many other factors to consider.
CNBC's Steve Lieseman says that there's 52% chance on any given day
that the stock market will go up.
Higgenbotham wrote:
> The Dow futures are up 700 from Friday's close (up another 100
> tonight).
> I just went short again. I am more likely to hold short from
> here. I'm a lot less skeptical than last night. Of course nobody
> really knows on any given day whether the market will continue
> lower, go up and turn back down, or whether a longer term low has
> been reached.
> My guess is that while the news that hit last night and today was
> good, the Chinese will not negotiate as readily as the South
> Koreans. And there are many other factors to consider.
CNBC's Steve Lieseman says that there's 52% chance on any given day
that the stock market will go up.
My message for all the critters on CNBC:
"Don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it!"
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
The Late Richard Russell in December 2014 wrote:I realize that there’s a great deal of skepticism regarding my third phase thesis. But the skepticism is healthy and it will be followed by shock and awe as the stock market surges steadily higher. My belief is that the coming of the stock market boom will envelope everything from housing prices to precious metals to all commodities. Perhaps a symbol of the coming third phase was the recent Sotheby’s auction of a seven-karat blue diamond for the mind blowing price of $26 million. This is the highest price per karat of any gemstone in auction history.
As the third phase boom continues, I expect the Fed to gradually raise interest rates. The stock market will ignore rising interest rates up to a point, and continue to push higher. But eventually rising rates will tend to halt the market’s rise. At what level will interest rates restrain the third phase? I don’t have the answer to this; it’s like the question, “How hot is hot?” or, “How greedy and courageous can stock buyers become?”
All I can say to this is WOW!!!
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote:I've covered my short. A pullback was very likely after that huge run, but now it gets harder.
I resold this run higher with a smaller position (10 lots). Now I will stay short.
I now believe the market is now tracing out a similar pattern to the move down from the April 1930 high and yesterday's big move higher was a big bear market rally similar to June 10, 1930.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote:
> I've covered my short. A pullback was very likely after that huge
> run, but now it gets harder.
> I resold this run higher with a smaller position (10 lots). Now I
> will stay short.
> I now believe the market is now tracing out a similar pattern to
> the move down from the April 1930 high and yesterday's big move
> higher was a big bear market rally similar to June 10,
> 1930.
Since there hasn't been a panic yet, wouldn't the 6.32% surge on Oct
7, 1929, be a better comparison?
Higgenbotham wrote:
> I've covered my short. A pullback was very likely after that huge
> run, but now it gets harder.
> I resold this run higher with a smaller position (10 lots). Now I
> will stay short.
> I now believe the market is now tracing out a similar pattern to
> the move down from the April 1930 high and yesterday's big move
> higher was a big bear market rally similar to June 10,
> 1930.
Since there hasn't been a panic yet, wouldn't the 6.32% surge on Oct
7, 1929, be a better comparison?
