There is a lot of very sound thinking in that article that is rarely encountered today. There is only one thing in the article I disagreed with, but that is minor given how much material was covered.
"Investment Advice" and "Investment Advisors" are big business today. Hussman's article, through its eminent logic, exposes the lie of that entire industry. If a prospective client walks into a UBS, Wells, Merrill, etc., etc., investment advisory firm and those prospects are told they invest client money and any of that money is going into stocks, they are not investing. And that is what they are going to tell those prospective clients and have been telling them for the past two plus decades that real bonafide investment in stocks has not been possible.
Nixon's 1971 comment that we are all Keynesians has morphed into we are all speculators (or gamblers if one prefers). It's important that people keep that perspective day to day as they are constantly being told otherwise. I think it's also true that in a speculative environment winnings get distributed much more unevenly than in an investment environment.
Financial topics
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
Soap Salt Matches
Store of value when the wall fell.
We sent money to bury the frozen dead.
Few remember.
Our people noted Levis where wanted and Marlboro reds where coveted as status.
Recognizing that valuations matter profoundly over the long run, yet are nearly useless over the short run, is central to navigating complete market cycles. John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
John is a very smart paper man and value is lacking with out a metallic ring to it.
Store of value when the wall fell.
We sent money to bury the frozen dead.
Few remember.
Our people noted Levis where wanted and Marlboro reds where coveted as status.
Recognizing that valuations matter profoundly over the long run, yet are nearly useless over the short run, is central to navigating complete market cycles. John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
John is a very smart paper man and value is lacking with out a metallic ring to it.
Re: Financial topics
At least six members of Mueller’s team worked for the Department of Justice while Sater produced important details about cybercrimes.
We can read the filtered facts in twenty years unless the white hats get a backbone .
informational infection algo Viral Rank quarterback contamination meme
January 10 2017 CNN
infection route cnn January 10 2017 algo
https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/
One thing is clear they will not follow the dcf to preserve capital to allocate productive information since the press
is as bad as the interoffice malinvestment clean up crews despoiling the and sullying the taxpayers earnest request
since we seek to preserve the Letter since they cannot fathom the Book.
The red meme assault path is nihilism from the political dog whistle ops currently and the usual suspects so we can
discern that approach before their eggs get cold for breakfast since they ignore what is eating their lunch.
The public is confused as they trusted others and stepped in a game they cannot comprehend. We call it truth of youth.
Dollar cost averaging needs to savings so appreciation can begin.
They are warned not to be deceived. Avoid those who do since the narrative is certain destruction of one thing along no one can control.
Time
https://www.politico.com/magazine/galle ... 74?slide=5
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/leftcenter/ short the left as they smash and grab what was standing.
http://www.shorpy.com/node/23129?size=_original#caption
How long does wealth and influence remain in a nation that makes nothing, does nothing, and knows nothing?
http://www.bibles-online.net/1390/NewTestament/1thru50/
Faraday was a very humble man, rejecting a knighthood and twice refusing the presidency of the Royal Society. He was an active elder in his church throughout his life, and although Faraday considered religion and science to be "two distinct things, he did not see them as conflicting with one another.
Scottish mathematician James Clerk Maxwell (1831-1879) later used Faraday's work to develop the equations that underlie all modern electromagnetic phenomena theories.
Morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals.
We can read the filtered facts in twenty years unless the white hats get a backbone .
informational infection algo Viral Rank quarterback contamination meme
January 10 2017 CNN
infection route cnn January 10 2017 algo
https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/
One thing is clear they will not follow the dcf to preserve capital to allocate productive information since the press
is as bad as the interoffice malinvestment clean up crews despoiling the and sullying the taxpayers earnest request
since we seek to preserve the Letter since they cannot fathom the Book.
The red meme assault path is nihilism from the political dog whistle ops currently and the usual suspects so we can
discern that approach before their eggs get cold for breakfast since they ignore what is eating their lunch.
The public is confused as they trusted others and stepped in a game they cannot comprehend. We call it truth of youth.
Dollar cost averaging needs to savings so appreciation can begin.
They are warned not to be deceived. Avoid those who do since the narrative is certain destruction of one thing along no one can control.
Time
https://www.politico.com/magazine/galle ... 74?slide=5
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/leftcenter/ short the left as they smash and grab what was standing.
http://www.shorpy.com/node/23129?size=_original#caption
How long does wealth and influence remain in a nation that makes nothing, does nothing, and knows nothing?
http://www.bibles-online.net/1390/NewTestament/1thru50/
Faraday was a very humble man, rejecting a knighthood and twice refusing the presidency of the Royal Society. He was an active elder in his church throughout his life, and although Faraday considered religion and science to be "two distinct things, he did not see them as conflicting with one another.
Scottish mathematician James Clerk Maxwell (1831-1879) later used Faraday's work to develop the equations that underlie all modern electromagnetic phenomena theories.
Morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals.
Re: Financial topics
innocent civilians ignorant soldiers it was said
heart rules the mind and judged by Him alone
orontes valley
But as soon as Jeremiah finished telling all the people everything the LORD had commanded him to say,
the priests, the prophets and all the people seized him and said, "You must die!
the point remains clear
Prove the spirits δοκιμάζετε τὰ πνεύματα.
Decide whom you serve. Ezekiel 33
Ezekiel 38 unless they awake
For I will surely deliver thee, and thou shalt not fall by the sword, but thy life shall be for a prey unto thee:
because thou hast put thy trust in me, saith the Lord. Jeremiah 39:18
Denn ich will dir davon helfen, daß du nicht durchs Schwert fallest, sondern sollst dein Leben wie eine Beute davonbringen, darum daß du mir vertrauet hast, spricht der HErr. Luther bibel 1545
The one who raised Him from the well as was also seen recently. One of the daughters of Ishmael who cried out.
Ebed-melech is the hero of popular legend. According to "The Rest of the Words of Baruch,"published by J. Rendel Harris in Greek under the title
Tὰ Παραλείπομενα Ιερεμίου τοὺ Προφητὸυ(Cambridge, 1889), Ebed-melech slept under a tree during the sixty-six years which elapsed between the destruction of the Temple in the month of Ab and the return of the exiles from Babylonia on the 12th of Nisan; during all this time the figs in the basket which Jeremiah had sent him to carry to the sick in Jerusalem remained fresh as when first put there. Ebed-melech is also counted among the nine persons who entered paradise alive ("Masseket Derek Ereẓ," i., ed. Taurogi, p. 8; "Alphabeticum Siracidis," ed. Steinschneider, pp. 27 et seq.; comp. "J. Q. R." v. 409-419).
The fig tree for those who hear.
heart rules the mind and judged by Him alone
orontes valley
But as soon as Jeremiah finished telling all the people everything the LORD had commanded him to say,
the priests, the prophets and all the people seized him and said, "You must die!
the point remains clear
Prove the spirits δοκιμάζετε τὰ πνεύματα.
Decide whom you serve. Ezekiel 33
Ezekiel 38 unless they awake
For I will surely deliver thee, and thou shalt not fall by the sword, but thy life shall be for a prey unto thee:
because thou hast put thy trust in me, saith the Lord. Jeremiah 39:18
Denn ich will dir davon helfen, daß du nicht durchs Schwert fallest, sondern sollst dein Leben wie eine Beute davonbringen, darum daß du mir vertrauet hast, spricht der HErr. Luther bibel 1545
The one who raised Him from the well as was also seen recently. One of the daughters of Ishmael who cried out.
Ebed-melech is the hero of popular legend. According to "The Rest of the Words of Baruch,"published by J. Rendel Harris in Greek under the title
Tὰ Παραλείπομενα Ιερεμίου τοὺ Προφητὸυ(Cambridge, 1889), Ebed-melech slept under a tree during the sixty-six years which elapsed between the destruction of the Temple in the month of Ab and the return of the exiles from Babylonia on the 12th of Nisan; during all this time the figs in the basket which Jeremiah had sent him to carry to the sick in Jerusalem remained fresh as when first put there. Ebed-melech is also counted among the nine persons who entered paradise alive ("Masseket Derek Ereẓ," i., ed. Taurogi, p. 8; "Alphabeticum Siracidis," ed. Steinschneider, pp. 27 et seq.; comp. "J. Q. R." v. 409-419).
The fig tree for those who hear.
Last edited by aeden on Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Higgenbotham on April 2 wrote:I expect any move under the key levels to be a false move...
I believe any move under the key levels that occurs this week has a high probability to lead to a crash.John on April 2 wrote:I'm just "thinking out loud" about what I think might happen in the next few weeks, and I do believe that this is a particularly dangerous time...
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
I believe that a lot depends on the earnings announcements
beginning next week.
beginning next week.
- Q1 Earnings growth is expected to be astronomical - 18.4%.
- The astronomical earnings growth is expected to continue
each quarter q2-q4 - Q1 earnings growth expectations were at 12.2% as of last
September, but have skyrocketed since them.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/416157 ... gs-7-years> The first quarter of 2018’s earnings season is approaching and
> expectations are high. Year-over-year (YoY) earnings for the S&P
> 500 are expected to be the strongest in seven years and increase
> 18.4%, while revenue is expected to grow 7.3%. Overall earnings
> are expected to benefit from global growth and tax reform, which
> are expected to remain drivers throughout 2018. As a result, full
> year earnings are expected to grow 19.7% in 2018.
> Exhibit 1: S&P 500 YoY Earnings Growth Rates
>
> High Expectations
> Analysts typically become more bearish and make downward revisions
> to earnings estimates ahead of earnings season. As a result, the
> expected YoY earnings growth rate declines an average of four
> percentage points from the start of the quarter to the start of
> earnings season. This quarter, largely driven by expected benefits
> of tax reform, analysts have increased their growth expectations
> by 6.2 percentage points to 18.4% from 12.2% on Jan. 1, 2018.
> Exhibit 2: S&P 500 18Q1 YoY Expected Growth History
Re: Financial topics
The "actual" back ground noise will shake out the unfunded etf baskets as the cef are sifted also.
I considered also Blackrock may of jumped the shark with the social responsibility investment comment.
Morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals.
As we invested in decent models to protect themselves they went private.
That trend may pick up in what is left in the civilized world. We noted the zones that can never be cleaned up and
a few that will take 500,000 years.
It's becoming less of an exception to the rule to have a company that focuses on understanding its role in society. Jeffrey Walker
I expect the usual suspects to split ai killing machined technology from it current host.
No "machine" is safe from IP theft. Even the loony left knows that.
Example: When you consider GOOGL has never earned an ROIC below 25% (the median S&P 500 stock earns an ROIC of 8%).
The last time the firm grew revenue by less than 10% annually was in the depths of a recession in 2009.
Google should fire the board of directors for not tabling that thought map to value streams.
Anyways who gets the tariffs stealth money the governments seeking dcf.
Stock up on stables as we already know. Consumers are tapped out anyways.
Simply a pissing contest to whats left. The true context of Jeremiahs snorting horses are "locusts".
I considered also Blackrock may of jumped the shark with the social responsibility investment comment.
Morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals.
As we invested in decent models to protect themselves they went private.
That trend may pick up in what is left in the civilized world. We noted the zones that can never be cleaned up and
a few that will take 500,000 years.
It's becoming less of an exception to the rule to have a company that focuses on understanding its role in society. Jeffrey Walker
I expect the usual suspects to split ai killing machined technology from it current host.
No "machine" is safe from IP theft. Even the loony left knows that.
Example: When you consider GOOGL has never earned an ROIC below 25% (the median S&P 500 stock earns an ROIC of 8%).
The last time the firm grew revenue by less than 10% annually was in the depths of a recession in 2009.
Google should fire the board of directors for not tabling that thought map to value streams.
Anyways who gets the tariffs stealth money the governments seeking dcf.
Stock up on stables as we already know. Consumers are tapped out anyways.
Simply a pissing contest to whats left. The true context of Jeremiahs snorting horses are "locusts".
Last edited by aeden on Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
John wrote:This quarter, largely driven by expected benefits
> of tax reform, analysts have increased their growth expectations
> by 6.2 percentage points to 18.4% from 12.2% on Jan. 1, 2018.
There seems to be a consideration as to how sustainable these earnings might be showing up in stock prices. The parts of the chart that indicate "not very sustainable" are shown - in other words, the stock averages have recently spent a considerable amount of time below the pre tax reform passage level and every time the market has gotten up there in the past 2 weeks (horizontal red line), sellers have come in, creating this flutter.John Hussman wrote:For example, even before the recent corporate tax cuts, the effective tax rate (taxes actually paid as percentage of profits) for U.S. nonfinancial corporations was just 20%. Even if those taxes were reduced by fully 40%, the effect on after-tax profits would be just [(1-0.6*0.20)/(1-0.20)-1]= 10%. Moreover, that 10% increment would deserve to be embedded into stock price gains only if it was expected to survive every future administration in the next 5 decades.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
Your view matches sentiment. The 48 hour futures reflect most of your appraised as correct in the crushing news cycle noise
In budget-talk, a “rescission” (the noun form of the verb “rescind”) is the cancellation of previously appropriated spending.
The Office did not like the stuff crammed down its throat since the red and blue are relegated to local affairs since warned in 1990.
Rescissions have largely fallen out of use more recently, in part because they were temporarily replaced by a presidential line-item veto which was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1998
Ryan miscalculated and the smugtardation look of McConnell was just removed.
Apprehension over uncertainty for me going into this week pricing boxes.
The Office is checking facts.
In budget-talk, a “rescission” (the noun form of the verb “rescind”) is the cancellation of previously appropriated spending.
The Office did not like the stuff crammed down its throat since the red and blue are relegated to local affairs since warned in 1990.
Rescissions have largely fallen out of use more recently, in part because they were temporarily replaced by a presidential line-item veto which was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1998
Ryan miscalculated and the smugtardation look of McConnell was just removed.
Apprehension over uncertainty for me going into this week pricing boxes.
The Office is checking facts.
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
I don't have a prediction I want to throw any significant money at. Suffice it to say, though, that this week there will be no small nibbles from the long side at all.
It is interesting to note, however, that the public bulls who have been correct or maybe even "smart" (or is it "lucky"?) since 2009 remain bullish with new all time high targets.
Martin
Carl
Tony
And probably a few more I've forgotten. I quoted Martin above.
Martin - "April 4, 2018. The expected correction occurred in January so now we await the low. This could possibly be already in but lets wait to see the numbers before jumping."
Carl - "Guesstimates on April 6, 2018. June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped to 2619.75 on Trump’s threat of higher tariffs after yesterday’s close. But the subsequent recovery has been very persistent and a swing up to and above yesterday’s 2672.25 high is probably underway. In any case I think Monday’s low print at 2552 will not be revisited for quite some time to come. The ES is headed for new bull market highs and I expect to see the market trade near 3100 later this year."
Tony - "Weekend update posted on April 7, 2018. Our analysis suggests this week’s Monday low, SPX 2554, could have ended the Intermediate wave iv correction. The Major wave 1 bull market from February 2016 continues."
And there are others who are more anonymous that I could quote who are stating similarly, including one who was bearish right from the January top and is long as of April 6.
That's a lot of brainpower on the long side. As for me, I will stand back and see how lucky they may get. I hope they do get lucky.
It is interesting to note, however, that the public bulls who have been correct or maybe even "smart" (or is it "lucky"?) since 2009 remain bullish with new all time high targets.
Martin
Carl
Tony
And probably a few more I've forgotten. I quoted Martin above.
Martin - "April 4, 2018. The expected correction occurred in January so now we await the low. This could possibly be already in but lets wait to see the numbers before jumping."
Carl - "Guesstimates on April 6, 2018. June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped to 2619.75 on Trump’s threat of higher tariffs after yesterday’s close. But the subsequent recovery has been very persistent and a swing up to and above yesterday’s 2672.25 high is probably underway. In any case I think Monday’s low print at 2552 will not be revisited for quite some time to come. The ES is headed for new bull market highs and I expect to see the market trade near 3100 later this year."
Tony - "Weekend update posted on April 7, 2018. Our analysis suggests this week’s Monday low, SPX 2554, could have ended the Intermediate wave iv correction. The Major wave 1 bull market from February 2016 continues."
And there are others who are more anonymous that I could quote who are stating similarly, including one who was bearish right from the January top and is long as of April 6.
That's a lot of brainpower on the long side. As for me, I will stand back and see how lucky they may get. I hope they do get lucky.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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