Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham on April 6 wrote:
Still bootstrapping. I was slowed down quite a bit when I dropped off to sleep in the middle of a trade. You might have an edge in the market but it's irrelevant if you can't stay awake. When I have big positions on, I repeat the mantra "Stay Awake, Stay Alive."

The obvious comment somebody might make is if I added over 10% to the account why not put a lot of money in. It doesn't seem to work that way.

Also, the most probable outcome is that after considerable struggle I don't get this off the ground.

I'm going to end the day and the week here and wait for some more turbulence to develop before making another move.

Image
Despite being wrong about the direction of the market today, I was able to squeeze out a profit. The futures are up tonight on Facebook earnings. I'm going to stand aside once again and only become active if the market goes down once again and appears vulnerable to crashing.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
Posts: 13963
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Same here but we warned of the dead ring effect we seen coming H.

Sun May 21, 2017 7:19 am Deny, disrupt, degrade, deceive. It is all they have going into mid terms.
Last edited by aeden on Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
aeden
Posts: 13963
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Closed half of book four. Marked to market fantasy to appear solvent.
Last edited by aeden on Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

WSJ newsletter wrote: > Remember When Stocks Were Unstoppable?

> Three months ago, some investors believed a yearslong,
> record-shattering rally in U.S stocks could go on
> indefinitely. Then the reality of a pullback in global liquidity
> set in, unleashing a bout of market volatility that many now
> believe is here to stay.


> On Jan. 26, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average
> soared to their last milestones. The S&P set its 14th record close
> of the year and the Dow reached its 11th (out of just 18 trading
> sessions).

> The rally began to unwind the next trading day as fears over
> inflation and rising interest rates crept in.
The declines
> turned into a full-on rout over the next two weeks, as the S&P
> briefly dipped into correction territory and the Dow notched its
> worst-ever daily point loss.

> Stocks have staged a few comebacks since then, but they remain
> almost 10% below the Jan. 26 levels. And few investors see a
> return to the uninterrupted gains
that had characterized the
> past year.

> Some analysts and investors were surprised by how quickly
> sentiment shifted. Before the selloff, even the most skeptical
> investors were starting to come to terms with the relentless
> nature of the rally even as many fretted over stretched
> valuations.


> Jeremy Grantham, a well-known stock market bear and chief
> investment strategist of the firm GMO, in early January had urged
> investors to brace for a “melt-up” scenario, when stocks climb
> quickly, within the next six months to two years.

> What went wrong is a topic of discussion, but analysts say fears
> that inflation was beginning to take off and a popular bet against
> future volatility likely contributed to the rout. Investors are
> now weighing lofty issues such as trade skirmishes between the
> U.S. and China, mixed economic data and corporate earnings, and
> rising expectations for U.S. interest-rate increases that
> helped drive U.S. Treasury yields above 3% this week.

> Morgan Stanley analysts recently warned: “Global liquidity
> conditions are tightening, and markets are coming to the
> realization that the process will be rocky.”

> If the past three months are any guide, that could be an
> understatement.
There are still plenty of people on tv who say that we're merely in a
pause and stocks will start shooting up again soon. There are
pessimists, but they say only that there will be a 20-30% correction.
I've heard two people say that they expect a worse correction than
in the financial crisis, which was about a 40% correction.

Nobody is predicting the kind of emotional panic that occurred
in 1929 and 1987, but these WSJ newsletters seem to be hinting
at it.
aeden
Posts: 13963
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

They do not care top to bottom.
The grassroots had been burned to servitude while the borders are crashed by design.
The mid term strategy is unfolding at the Border.
The top democratic operatives went to that region called the left Coast.
Holder will bring people together as he conveyed.
Republicans if they even exist know this and will fade into the mist.
Public opinion is a tool only since they only need one thing gloating as compliant minds only.
DOJ and FBI are compromised to the point they get paid no matter who signs the checks.

Mon 11 Sep 2017 00:28:12
No.141102703 Report

it's called the "high incident project".

Saboteurs in the US government from the previous Left-wing liberals that want collectivism... The entire narrative of the Left is designed to promote collectivism and induce regression through educational indoctrination and the media as Hillary Clinton famously remarked they need “an unaware compliant public.”
What these antifa village and useful idiots do not fathom the whole system they want is predicated on exploitation.
Former Attorney General Eric Holder says Americans would be able to count on him to “unify the country” if he became the 46th U.S. commander in chief.
Mr. Holder said during an hourlong interview that he was still open to the idea of a 2020 presidential campaign that could pit him against President Trump.

The wedge is being driven in as we speak.

Horkheimer 1972, 249–250. The normative orientation of Critical Theory, at least in its form of critical social inquiry, is therefore towards the transformation of capitalism into a “real democracy” in which such control could be exercised (Horkheimer 1972). In such formulations, there are striking similarities between Critical Theory and American pragmatism.

Critical Theory developed a nonskeptical version of this conception, linking philosophy closely to the human and social sciences.
Just another dialectic tool since while linked ultimately to a narrative of its decline through the market and the administrative state, the core of such interaction and the critical and egalitarian potential of being part of a public whose members address one another as equals had for Habermas a nonideological, even “utopian” core.

https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/TOC.htm#a
The value of the moral powers, and their frequently incredible influence, are best exemplified by history, and this is the most generous and purest nourishment which the mind of the general can extract from it. — At the same time it is to be observed, that it is less demonstrations, critical examinations, and learned treatises, than sentiments, general impressions, and single flashing sparks of truth, which yield the seeds of knowledge that are to fertilise the mind.

Mid term is the trial balloon to whats already here.

2004 nugget - This year, as in the past, Republicans will portray us Democrats as embittered academics, desiccated Unitarians, whacked-out hippies and communards, people who talk to telephone poles, the party of the Deadheads. They will wave enormous flags and wow over and over the footage of firemen in the wreckage of the World Trade Center and bodies being carried out and they will lie about their economic policies with astonishing enthusiasm.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/979/

We could only wish the current NPR bureau of internal affairs had a clue, or pretended to want one.

Any organized resistance as we have seen is shelled for target practice as in the Serbian conflict
and now gassed and slaughtered to media perfection in disinformation.

Mencius, "The sense of compassion is the beginning of benevolence; the sense of shame the beginning of righteousness; the sense of modesty the beginning of decorum; the sense of right and wrong the beginning of wisdom. Man possesses these four beginnings just as he possesses four limbs. Anyone possessing these four and saying that he can not do what is required of him is abasing himself."

Mencius replied, "Why must your Majesty use that word 'profit'? What I am provided with, are counsels to benevolence and righteousness, and these are my only topics."

FDR “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”

https://www.google.be/search?hl=en&tbm= ... =769&dpr=1

Natural Law and International Law merged into one.
Creator: Crowe, David M.,author.
Edition: First edition.

The first wave is the only wave they wanted since borders are to be exploited.
Are you still confused what fast and furious actually was meant to do?
In 2008 Webster Tarpley seen the theoretician Nye of "soft power," a new form of imperialist aggression based on economic warfare, subversion, deception, and people power coups moved forward. The period we are in since as we know the current administration will not be allowed to fully staff the positions since delay is the only tactical advantage they need to keep it drained anemic going forward to enfeeble an actual representative system. It is a sociological fact that a revolution has a nigh zero chance of success if a comfortable 'middle' class exists. The Cloward - Piven scheme of intentional abuse of 'social safety-net' programs is calculated to incrementally overburden government budgets from the local, county, state and finally federal levels. The ultimate goal is general minimum income decoupled from actual work.

The constant demands for 'minimum wage' increases, along with this program of crashing governmental budgets inevitably leads to job loss, increased dependency upon transfer payments [redistributionary 'welfare'], and compression of the middle class into the lower. The decoupling of productivity from remuneration increases means that the value even of the wages collected erodes; "Quantitative Easing" [increasing the volume and availability of currency above demand] gives the wage-devaluation wheel another kick every time it is done, further devaluing the value of hours worked, and further compressing the middle-class wage-earners into the lower class of transfer-payment recipients.

Ironically, it is this Progressive 'revolution' that is responsible for the decreasing 'standard of living' in all but the ultra-wealthy [so-called] one percent, who have the means and political influence to insulate and exempt themselves from the effects of Progressive policy.

Ultimately, this form of "socialism" has the effect of the top tier of wealth-holders' ability to "pull the ladder up behind them", essentially creating a permanent two-class Neo-Feudal State.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... on-hillary
aeden
Posts: 13963
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Warning to the Blue Dogs.

Don’t take them at face value. Image is everything as they work hard to present a facade of superiority and certainty. They like to keep others guessing and operate less than transparently. But it is important to remember that most people are deeply insecure. Their flashy facade is designed to hide emptiness within. We can have compassion and yet not be taken in by their pretenses. All that glitters is not gold.
Don’t over-share personal information. The more personal information you give, the more ammunition they have to use against you to feel one up. They may use anything you share to humiliate or manipulate you, particularly when you are most vulnerable or in need. Be judicious about what you tell them.
Don’t feel a need to justify your thoughts, feelings or actions. Many do try to make others second-guess themselves. They may do this by asking pointed or leading questions, acting as though you need to explain yourself to them. Recognize this for what it is: an attempt to undermine you. One helpful self-help mantra is “No JADE,” which stands for Justifying, Arguing, Defending, or Explaining. You do not need to explain or justify your feelings or thoughts. Furthermore, arguing with or defending yourself is generally counterproductive as they can be interested in winning, not listening; competing, not communicating.
Don’t minimize self-serving behavior and hunger for attention as it can suck energy from those around them. Over time people get fatigued or numb and fail to register how behavior can be directed. Make no mistake: deceiving, manipulating and humiliating others is unhealthy and wrong. Sometimes it may be best to let provocative behavior pass without comment but that doesn’t mean you should fail to make a mental note of how it is.
Don’t expect them to take responsibility. They take credit and give blame, rarely apologizing or admitting fault. They have special status, greater stature, and more rights than others. They have no interest in equality or in owning up to what they do other than taking credit. Seeking to take responsibility for negative actions can be a waste of time. If you want to point out their role in a problem, fine – but do so because you need to say it, not because you expect them to hear or validate your concerns.
Don’t assume they share your values and worldview. If you expect compassion you will be repeatedly disappointed. People view others for gratification, not as equals at times. They use words as tools or weapons more than as truth. They have a bottomless hunger for attention. All these come from a shaky sense of self, it is normal at times. Knowing this can free you from false expectations and allow you to set boundaries accordingly.
Don’t try to beat them at their own game. It may be tempting, but remember: most have spent their entire lives perfecting their campaign of self. Many do invest time for manipulative actions over a week week than most people do all year sensing the fear of losing, feeling inferior, and being or humiliated.

As a result, they devote massive energy to maintaining their image and cultivating sources of ego-boosting, generally at others’ expense. Trying to best them in a war of words, get even, or otherwise adopt their techniques is like an amateur going up against a seasoned pro. It won’t feel good and it rarely works. Instead be true to your values.
Don’t take their actions personally. They may treat those closest to them especially negatively, but few are immune from put downs and manipulations. If you take what they do personally, you grant them extra real estate in your mind and psyche which is exactly what they want. Mistreatment is painful and wrong. It’s not personal. It is just what they do.
Don’t expect empathy or fairness as generally they are incapable of having empathy. Empathy is based on the assumption that others are worthy, equal, and deserve attention and compassion. Entitlement leaves little reason to play fair or reciprocate since others are inferior and undeserving. Rather than expecting equality or reciprocity, focus on respecting yourself.
They may alter some behaviors over time, but the underlying dynamics that drive them are generally there for life seen as threats or potential victims and are trapped in an endless quest for approval. To hope that they will change is a setup. Rather, accept who they are and focus on how to take care of yourself around them. They seek to be above all and will betray those closest to them when it suits them. This is what you are up against more than not. Seventy times seven we are instructed.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

It's Friday afternoon, and all Canadian exchanges closed at 1:39 pm
because of a "computer glitch," and will not reopen again until Monday
morning.

A lot of people are going to be really screwed by this.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cana ... SKBN1HY2RS


April 27, 2018 / 7:21 PM / in a minute
Canada stock markets shut down due to exchange issues: TMX

Reuters Staff

2 Min Read

TORONTO (Reuters) - The TMX Group ([1]X.TO), which operates the
Toronto Stock Exchange and other exchanges, said on Friday it was
shutting down all markets for the rest of the day after experiencing
issues with trading on all its exchange platforms. [IMAGE]FILE PHOTO -
A TMX Group sign, the company that runs the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSX), is seen in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, June 23, 2014.
REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

“TMX has decided to shut down all markets for the remainder of the
day. Trading will not resume today, including market on close,” TMX
Group said in a statement on its website.

The U.S.-listed shares of several Canada-based firms were still
trading even as their Toronto-listed securities were idled by the
outage.

Blackberry Ltd’s ([2]BB.TO) New York Stock Exchange-listed shares
([3]BB.N), for example, were trading as of 3:08 p.m. EDT, but the
company’s TSX-listed shares had not traded since 1:38 p.m.

The Toronto-based company first flagged the issue on Twitter shortly
after 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), updating numerous times through the hour
to say the issues were persisting and that an investigation was
ongoing.

“I don’t think it was incredibly high volume day. At this point it
looks like ... technical issues,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market
strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “It doesn’t seem like it’s tied
to a flash crash.”

The TMX Group operates numerous Canadian exchanges, including the
Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture Exchange, and the Montréal
Exchange.

Reporting by Julie Gordon and Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Tom
Brown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Risk Intelligence is the ability to estimate probabilities accurately.

People with high risk intelligence tend to make better predictions than those with low RQ.

The Basic RQ Test is a risk intelligence
test that consists of 50 statements
which may be true or false. Your
task is to say how likely you think
it is that each statement is true.

TRY IT FOR FREE
http://www.projectionpoint.com/

My result for the Basic RQ Test:

Your RQ Score is 81!
Such a score is high. Risk intelligence can be measured by calculating something called a "calibration curve".
Your K factor is 35. This is high. This means that your RQ score in this test is a quite reliable measure of your risk intelligence.
Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty

There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ, and most psychologists failed to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people - American weather-forecasters, professional gamblers, and hedge-fund managers, for example.

This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers, for instance - seem unable to navigate what Evans calls the "darkened room", the domain of doubt and uncertainty.

Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.
Higgenbotham wrote:Any trader who does not realize they are gambling does not have a clear picture of what they are doing.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

The effects of an earthquake in Tokyo would dwarf those of the Tohoku quake. The city is home to a quarter of Japan’s population, as well as being the country’s administrative and commercial centre. Big quakes struck the area in 1703, 1855 and 1923, with the last claiming the lives of 100,000 people. Were any one of these events to occur today, the economic losses alone would be expected to top 80 trillion Yen ($1 trillion). But the capital to back catastrophe risks isn’t supplied by insurers. It mainly comes from reinsurers, and the key players in the global reinsurance market are all European (Munich Re & Swiss Re in particular). An earthquake in Tokyo could cause them to become insolvent. Since these are systemically important institutions for the insurance industry, their insolvency would have severe consequences for the global financial system. Such financial aftershocks would dwarf the geological ones.
http://blog.projectionpoint.com/?p=49
Secondly, risk intelligence is required even when sophisticated models and supercrunching computers are in plentiful supply. An overreliance on computer models can drown out serious thinking about the big questions, such as why the financial system nearly collapsed in 2007–2008 and how a repeat can be avoided. According to the economist Robert Shiller, the accumulation of huge data sets in the 1990s led economists to believe that “finance had become scientific.” Conventional ideas about investing and financial markets—and about their vulnerabilities—seemed out of date to the new empiricists, says Shiller, who worries that academic departments are “creating idiot savants, who get a sense of authority from work that contains lots of data.” To have seen the financial crisis coming, he argues, it would have been better to “go back to old-fashioned readings of history, studying institutions and laws. We should have talked to grandpa.”

Risk management is a complex process that requires both technical solutions and human skill. Mathematical models and computer algorithms are vital, but such technical solutions can be useless or even dangerous in the hands of those with low risk intelligence.
http://blog.projectionpoint.com/?p=239
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

It's my conclusion that the above-referenced RQ Test is flawed.

The reason for saying that is most of the questions are not such that it is reasonable to gauge distinct levels of uncertainty for most people.

For example, "The population of Beijing was over 20 million in 2008." The population was in fact 17 million. The only reasonable answer for a non-expert is "I don't know." All the non-expert really knows is right around 20 million seems reasonable. Slightly under or slightly over is a coin toss. Any guess a non-expert makes in the "I don't know" range provides no useful information.

I think the gist of the test is to tabulate the degree to which a person is more uncertain about what they get wrong versus what they get right and score higher for a higher degree of that. That's difficult to do given the subject matter of the test.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 3 guests