Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 5-Feb-2019 New futile Central African Republic (CAR) signed

Ever since the current war in the Central African Republic (CAR) war
between Christians and Muslims began in 2012, there have been six
peace agreements signed. One of them was signed in 2015, when Pope
Francis paid a visit. The pope removed his his shoes and bowed his
head at the Central Mosque in the last remaining Muslim neighborhood
of the capital city Bangui, and said, "Together we say 'no' to
hatred."

Well, all of those six previous peace agreements failed, and today a
seventh one was signed by the CAR government and 14 armed militias at
a meeting in Khartoum, Sudan.



------------- CAR armed militias -------------

This and the Darfur war are the only generational crisis wars in the
world today. CAR's war used to be in the news a lot, but these days
it's almost invisible in the news pages. There's still a huge
slaughter going on between Christians and Muslims, but there are more
important things to worry about -- like Russia, Russia, Russia.

Actually, that's not entirely a joke. The continuing genocide in CAR
is being mostly ignored, but there has been one major story in the
past year. Russia's Vladimir Putin has sent his personal private
army, the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), into CAR to bring
peace, and to secure its mineral wealth, including gold, diamonds,
and uranium, for Russia.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.

The peacekeepers succeeded, but then the Christian anti-balaka
militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in
2014, for revenge against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians
and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a
full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and
millions have been displaced.

Although the CAR war appears to be entirely sectarian, that isn't
entirely true. The Muslims are mostly herders, while the Christians
are mostly farmers, and this is the same kind of conflict between
herders and farmers that I've described in many other countries. As
population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle
eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on
land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the
herders knock them down. In CAR, there have been situations where
Muslim and Christian farmers were united in fighting Muslim herders.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new
crisis war is increasingly likely.

The fact that the violence has continued and even increased, but
without any major incidents explosive enough to make news, is a good
reason why the new peace agreement is almost certain to fail. A
generational crisis war can only end when there's an explosive climax,
such as an act of huge genocidal slaughter that's so horrific that
both sides are traumatized and want the war to end. Nothing even
remotely like that has happened yet, as far as I know.

It's interesting that the peace agreement was announced on Tuesday,
but the details have not been announced. One issue is that some
people in the Christian anti-balaka militias may be charged with war
crimes by the International Criminal Court, and granting amnesty may
have been used as a bargaining chip in getting the agreement.
Apparently there's also some kind of power-sharing agreement among the
14 militias, but it should be fun to watch and see how long that
lasts.



https://www.france24.com/en/20190205-ce ... s-conflict
(France24)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ ... 50705.html
(Al Jazeera)

https://reliefweb.int/report/central-af ... ple-bangui
(ReliefWeb)


--- Related

** 7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181107


** 6-May-18 World View -- Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in Central African Republic
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180506

[John]

** 5-Feb-2019 In SOTU, Trump announces North Korea summit in Vietnam on Feb 27-28

In the State of the Union address, president Donald Trump announced
that he will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on February
27-28 in Vietnam.

Interestingly, Trump didn't predict any outcomes: "As part of a bold
new diplomacy, we continue our historic push for peace on the Korean
Peninsula." As I've written many times, there isn't a snowflake's
chance in hell that North Korea will denuclearize.

[John]

** 6-Feb-2019 How should people prepare? How should America prepare?

I believe that I know, as much as is possible, what's going to happen
in terms of international events. Generational Dynamics has provided
a great deal of information that isn't available anywhere else.

Now I'd like to go one step further, and ask people to post their
suggestions for how to prepare for what we now know is coming.

We're headed for total war with China -- perhaps next week, perhaps in
ten years. In addition, I've posted Genertational Dynamics predictions
for many countries around the world.

How should people prepare, and how should America prepare?

I'm looking for suggestions that go beyond the obvious things like
"increase the defense budget."

On the international level, the mainstream media and many politicians
have been completely baffled by Trump's policies, and I've written
numerous articles explaining that many of Trump's policies are for
example the kind of preparations that I'm talking about now, including
the following:

• Withdraw troops and resources from Syria and other regions to make
  them available for war with China.
• Maintain forward air bases in Afghanistan (Bagram and Kandahar
  International Airport)
• Maintain THAAD anti-missile defenses in South Korea
• Use negotiations with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un to slow
  preparations for war
• Use tariffs to slow China's preparations for war
• Use sanctions to slow North Korea's preparations for war

These are some of the things that Trump is doing to prepare America
for war. What are some other suggestions?

On a personal level, here's a summary of what I wrote in the past to
someone living in Seoul, South Korea:

The thing is, you really have to think about what you want to do.

What this web site and Generational Dynamics give you is an insight
into what's going to happen. Some people ask me if it's better off
just to ignore all this stuff. My answer is that it probably is,
since you can't do anything about it, and you might as well just enjoy
life as normal.

So if you live in Seoul, just forget that you ever came to this site,
and go one with your happy day to day life as usual. Quite honestly,
in the end, it will probably be the best choice.

On the other hand, if you do want to do something about the situation,
then you have to stop being scared, make a plan, and do it. I've
known people who have become survivalists, and are now living in some
unknown bunkers somewhere in the midwest USA. Other people are making
sure that everyone in their family knows how to use a gun.

If you're a young male, you might take this advice from forum member
Higgenbotham:

> Based on the information you provided, since you are young
> (presumably wouldn't have a lot of money to invest) and you think
> a nuclear war is probable, I would suggest you first "invest in
> yourself" and your survival. One idea for consideration in that
> regard is to set yourself up to be able to get to a safe haven
> outside the US. A couple countries that come to mind are Chile and
> Namibia. One way to do that would be to try to meet a woman in a
> country you determine to be a safe haven who has a reputable and
> well connected family. Know how you are going to get to her
> family's home within 24 hours and have the money set aside to do
> that, your bags packed and an idea of what news would make you
> ready to act.

So his advice is to pick a country, move there, and move in with some
reputable woman.

Continuing with my response to the person living in Seoul, maybe that
option isn't available to you. If you're able to leave Korea, then
you have to decide whether you should do that and, if so, when and
where. Or, as I understand it, southern South Korea is likely to be a
lot safer than Seoul, so you might consider taking your family and
moving there.

Once you've figured out what your choices are, you have to pick one of
them and decide to live with it. If you decide to do nothing, live
with that. If you decide to move somewhere, live with that. Just
make up your mind and do it. And I really mean it when I say that
doing nothing may be the best choice, since no place is really safe
from a world war, so why bother?

So that was my reponse to someone living in Seoul.

So what should other people do?

Are there places in the US that might be safe?

Should people purchase enough canned food to last a year?

What about the EMP blast that's supposed to completely fry every
electrical circuit in the country, and lead to death of 90% of
the population?

[John]

As we discuss how to prepare, Germany is dealing with the question of
how to prepare or react to large Chinese investments in Greece and
Portugal, in the face of decades of under-investment in Europe by the
Europeans themselves.

American politicians have been criticizing European under-investment
for decades, pointing to long vacations and restrictive work rules.

I have a personal memory that still astounds me today. I was in
Germany on business in the late 1970s, and I was in a car being driven
by my Germany host in the early evening. As we drove along, he
pointed to some office buildings and said, "Do you see that there are
no lights on in the windows of any of these office buildings? It's
against the law for anyone to be working after 6 o'clock, and if there
are any lights on in the windows, then the police will arrive."

I wouldn't even have believed this crazy story, except that it was
obviously true: There were no lights on in any of the windows of any
of the office buildings. I assume that there were some criminals
doing work at home or at inside offices with no windows, but no lights
could be seen anywhere.

According to the following analysis, Germany has already suffered or
is starting to suffer huge industrial failures in many areas: consumer
electronics, telecommunication, computers, carbon fibres, solar power,
electric batteries, successful internet platforms artificial
intelligence and biotech. The last German entrepreneurial venture
with global impact was SAP -- from 1991.

China is taking advantage of Europe's decades of underinvestment
by extending its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Europe with
investments in Greece and Portugal.

Germany vs China / Altmaier's industrial policy raises important
issues, but is unlikely to get job done

• Peter Altmaier presented an ambitious strategy to protect
  German industrial interests: more restrictive merger controls and
  a fund for strategic investment;
• the measures will align Germany with France, and will have
  some positive impact, but do not address the underlying cause of
  Europe's spectacular industrial decline: decades of
  under-investment;
• we argue that Europe's loss of industrial and scientific
  innovation and the eurozone's architecture and crisis management
  are related;

There is a lot to be said in favour of Peter Altmaier's new
industrial strategy, geared towards protecting German industry
against predatory practices form Chinese competitors.

https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Downlo ... nFile&v=18

The analysis is brutally honest about the threats faced by
Germany. We also agree with the main planks of his strategy, such
as a more restrictive mergers-and-acquisitions regime and a
state-owned fund to takes defensive stakes in potential takeover
targets. We no longer live in the world of Friedrich Hayek -
although much of Germany's economics establishment still
does. Having said that, however, it is also essential to realise
that the strategy is likely to fail for reasons that have nothing
to do with Altmaier or his ministry. Of the reasons why China
constitutes a threat to the EU, lack of defensive capacity is one
but not the main one. The main reason is under-investment and a
secular decline in innovation. The two are related.

Virtually everything that is going wrong with the EU right now has
its roots in the architecture of the eurozone, and the handling of
the eurozone crisis. As a direct result of the eurozone crisis
China has become a strategic investor in Portugal and
Greece. China's New Silk Road initiative cuts right through the
EU. The maps drawn up by Chinese planners look like 19th century
European battle maps - except that the arrows point from east to
west.

So, if Germany erects barriers for Chinese investors, all they
will need to do is to operate from within the EU - disguised in a
European company. Portugal and Greece are acting entirely
rationally by allowing China in. Who else is investing there? The
eurozone crisis has left large parts of the EU - including Germany
itself - with structural under-investment. If you want to solve
the Chinese problem, this is where you need to start. A degree of
protection is helpful in our view, as a transitional device, but
it is not sufficient.

The German ministry' paper is brutally frank in its description of
Germany's industrial failures. Germany already lost consumer
electronics, telecommunication, computers, carbon fibres, and
solar power. Germany is in the process of losing its value-added
in important segments of the car industry - for example in
electric batteries. The most successful internet platforms are not
European. Europe is also on the verge of losing the battle over
artificial intelligence to the US and China. The same goes for
biotech. Germany's future is that of an extended manufacturing
plant in global supply chain - with most of the value-added
generate elsewhere.

We agree with that assessment. But why has it come to that? The
last German entrepreneurial venture with global impact was SAP - a
start-up from the early days of the computer. We believe that one
of the reasons why Germany has lost its entrepreneurial leadership
is a shift in economic objectives - from investment towards fiscal
consolidation. The letter has turned into the be-all and end-all
of economic policy. It has been legally enshrined in European
treaties and into the German constitution to make sure that it
cannot be altered.

One of the key planks of Altmaiers new strategy is an investment
fund that will take strategic stakes in companies, but only for
limited periods. The overall goal is not for the state's share in
industrial production to rise, but FAZ notes that this is
unrealistic. For example, the German government has recently
acquired a 20% stake in an electricity grid company, but without
offsetting divestment of its holdings in the railway operator or
the post office.

The strategy will make Germany more aligned with France, and is
thus likely to help formulate an EU-wide response. But for this to
succeed, the EU will have to recognise its own failings as
well. The €350bn Juncker investment plan has been an utter waste
of time. There is an overwhelming case for a eurozone-level budget
for strategic research and investment, on a scale of several
percentage points of GDP and funded by the issue of eurobonds. If
one is serious about Europe's industrial future, heavy lifting is
needed. It cannot be done within the red lines of the eurozone's
current system of governance.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/

[CH86]

Once again John you mention geographical impossibilities, If China is such a threat to Europe, why is Russia so laid back regarding China? Any Chinese threat would be immeasurably greater to Russia since, the Russians have a 3000 mile border with China: Something Europe does not have to worry about.

[John]

> Once again John you mention geographical impossibilities, If china
> is such a threat to Europe, why is Russia so laid back regarding
> China? Any Chinese threat would be immeasurably greater to Russia
> since, the Russians have a 3000 mile border with China: Something
> Europe does not have to worry about.

That's an interesting question.

Russia is very concerned about its border with China, especially in
the Far East. I wrote about this last September:

** 12-Sep-18 World View -- Russia's 'strategic alliance' with China evokes memories of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180912

In that article, I discussed Russia's Vostok-2018 war games, which
were being held in the east (near China) rather than in the west (near
Europe), and how they are sending a message to China.

Putin will hope to stay neutral as long as possible, just as Stalin
did with Hitler (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact). That was a disaster for
the Soviets, and Russia may suffer a similar disaster with China.

[Navigator]

John,

Love your site and work. Miss your daily posts on the website, as you have the most insightful world news! I will be looking here instead.

I am a retired Army Colonel. I had blogged for a while at http://www.comingstorms.com, but have held off for a while due to my wife's health issues.

I agree with you mostly on the coming WW III. I recently wrote about how to prepare for it from one aspect:

Lethality

Modern war really begins with the American Civil War. This is the first war in which the both sides drafted the masses into their armies to expand them and then refill the ranks. They had to "refill the ranks" due to the massive casualties they suffered in every campaign and battle. Both sides were initially shocked and mortified at how incredibly high the losses were during major battles.

The same thing happened again during the World Wars. At the start of World War One, the casualty rates were far higher than anyone expected. And by now it was accepted practice by all countries that when you are in a major war that you draft everyone possible into the Armed Forces.
In both eras, leaders and common people alike were shocked at the numbers of dead and wounded. Nothing in their prior experience had prepared them for what actually happened. In both eras this was due to advances in technology that made it much easier and more efficient to kill human beings.

In the American Civil War, this was due to rifled bullets. Prior to that war, a musket ball had only a remote chance of hitting someone, so armies of old packed together in tight formations so some musket balls would actually hit the enemy. With rifled bullets, the bullets trajectory was no longer random, and an aimed shot could accurately hit something almost as far away as you could see. Unfortunately, the armies still continued to use tight formations, as this is what armies then were taught to do. It wasn't uncommon in the war for units to take 50% (or more) casualties in a single day long battle.

In the World Wars, machine guns, rapid fire artillery, then tanks and airplanes added new levels of lethality to the battlefield. Again, no one was really prepared for what the new technology could do. And again, casualty rates were so high that the wars, in the end, were decided by who ran out of replacement Soldiers first.

In all of these wars, the lion's share of the casualties are taken by the infantry. These are the foot soldiers literally on the front line. They have a rifle or a machine gun. These days they wear a helmet and maybe some body armor covering their chest and back to protect themselves from some of the dangers they face. They still have an incredibly short life expectancy once put on the front line in a major war. In the World Wars, about 80% of the casualties were infantrymen. Let this sink in. Eight out of Ten who are injured or die in a major war are the front line foot soldiers.

It has been as long now since the World Wars as it was between the American Civil War and World War Two. The pace of technological change has only accelerated. Neither military leaders nor the citizens that could be called to arms have any personal experience with what would happen in a major war when all of the new technology is applied to killing humans on a mass scale. Losses again will be horrific and the masses will be drafted to expand the armies and replace the fallen. And there will be countless millions who will fall.

What to Do

The last place you want to be in a major war is in the infantry. Especially if you have little to no prior military experience. Your odds of dying or suffering serious injury would be almost 100%. So you and your loved ones probably want to avoid this experience if possible.

The best way to avoid being drafted into the military as an infantry replacement is to already be in or associated with the military. Have a military skill OTHER than being a foot soldier. Join the Reserve Forces and learn how to work radios or repair trucks for example. It is a decent way to pay for college and learn a backup trade skill. And it will most probably keep you from being an infantry replacement when they start drafting people off of the streets.

[CH86]

Navigators post would only be applicable if Russia was the enemy and the war was fought primarily on Land. If China is the enemy, the points mentioned earlier would not be applicable, because a war with China would be fought primarily at Sea and in the Skies, not on Land.

[Navigator]

All wars are decided primarily on land. Even in the Pacific in WW2. The Naval War there might have been dominant, but the navies either allowed (or failed to interdict) land force projection. (Japanese in Dutch East Indies, SE Asia and Philippines; US in island hopping, New Guinea, Philippines).

That said, I am actually glad the Chinese are wasting such vast resources on building a Navy. I think the strategy is greatly misguided and does not play to their primary strengths. I think they following the path of the German Kaiser in his pre-World War One ideas of becoming a power with global force projection capability. The Imperial German fleet, while impressive, and certainly highly competent, was a waste of their military resources.

[John]

** 6-Feb-2019 What was the most politically divisive speech in the last 24 hours?

Who said the most politically divisive thing recently?

Was it the State of the Union speech?

Apparently not. It was the statement by European Commission president
Donald Tusk:

> I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like,
> for those who promoted Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how
> to carry it out safely.

Tusk opened the door to other snarky remarks by EU politicians, and
giggling by Ireland's prime minister.

British politicians are in a tizzy. The Brexiteers are furious.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47143135