Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 07-May-2019 US-China trade war has no resolution in sight

Today's market selloff is being blamed on a growing realization that
Trump was serious about imposing large new tariffs on Friday, meaning
that a US-China trade deal will not be reached soon.

There's very little confirmed information available about what the
disagreement is in the US-China trade talks, but various reports say
it has to do with theft of intellectual property. Incidentally, this
is not a Trump-only concern. Trump is getting advice to "hang tough"
from Chuck Shumer and other Democratic leaders, and there's very
little criticism from other Western nations, since they've all been
screwed by China's theft of intellectual property, and refusal to
comply with international law and commitments it had already made in
writing.

More specifically, reports indicate that Chinese negotiators had
agreed to end theft of intellectual property, and to put that
agreement into Chinese law.

Apparent Xi Jinping pulled the plug on this a few days ago, and said
that the agreement wouldn't go into Chinese law, but would only be
made some vague "regulation." In other words, the Chinese had no
intention of abiding by their own signed agreement.

In the last few months, I've seen Trump economic advisors on TV, such
as Larry Kudlow and Kevin Hassett, repeatedly say that the US-China
trade negotiations were going very well. I watched these statements
in increasing disbelief, wondering which side was backing down -- the
Chinese or the Americans. Now we can see what happened. The Chinese
negotiators made concessions with regard to stealing intellectual
property, and Xi Jinping pulled the plug, causing Trump to announce
the new tariffs. This is the kind of thing that leads to world wars.

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts a stock
market crash and global financial crisis with 100% certainty. This
would begin with a full-scale panic. What's going on today is the
first signs of a panic, but it could reverse tomorrow, as investors
begin to calm down and decide that a delay in the US-China talks is
not serious.

At times like this, I like to repeat what happened in the stock market
panic that occurred on October 28, 1929. This year will be the 90'th
anniversary of that panic, and yet, to this day, nobody knows why the
panic occurred on that particular day, or why it didn't occur a few
months earlier or later. A panic had to occur, since the stock market
was a huge bubble (as it is today), but the panic nonetheless was
completely unexpected.

The other thing to remember is that the 1929 panic was not the same as
a stock market crash and, in fact, the stock market recovered in the
next few days much of what it had lost. What the panic did was to put
in train a long, grinding process of margin calls and bankruptcy
chains, and this was the stock market crash. An investor who had
borrowed money on high-risk stocks would have to sell his blue chip
stocks to meet the margin calls. When one person or company went
bankrupt, then its lenders were suddenly also exposed to bankruptcy.
This chain of bankruptcies continued for four or five years, as the
stock market fell 90%.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. "It's different this
time" is a lie. The next financial crisis won't be an exact repeat of
the 1929 crisis, but the general elements (stock market bubble, panic,
margin calls, bankruptcy chain) will be the same.

[John]

** 08-May-2019 Details of US-China trade deal collapse emerge

According to a new report, the current US-China trade deal crisis
began late Friday last week, when China sent the Trump administration
an edited version of the 150-page draft trade agreement that they had
been negotiating for months. The edits reversed all of China's
commitments in the areas of theft of U.S. intellectual property and
trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access
to financial services; and currency manipulation.

It's becoming increasingly clear what happened. During the months of
negotiations, the Chinese negotiators had made numerous commitments to
end China's illegal trade practices. On Friday, China threw out all
its commitments.

This is from the Reuters report:

"The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in
Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly
150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of
negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. ...

The [edited] document was riddled with reversals by China that
undermined core U.S. demands. ...

In each of the seven chapters of the draft trade deal, China had
deleted its commitments to change laws to resolve core complaints
that caused the United States to launch a trade war: theft of
U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology
transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and
currency manipulation.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded in a tweet on Sunday vowing
to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 to
25 percent on Friday – timed to land in the middle of a scheduled
visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He to Washington to continue
trade talks.

The stripping of binding legal language from the draft struck
directly at the highest priority of U.S. Trade Representative
Robert Lighthizer - who views changes to Chinese laws as essential
to verifying compliance after years of what U.S. officials have
called empty reform promises.

Lighthizer has pushed hard for an enforcement regime more like
those used for punitive economic sanctions – such as those imposed
on North Korea or Iran – than a typical trade deal.

“This undermines the core architecture of the deal,” said a
Washington-based source with knowledge of the talks."

The Chinese have a three-millennia belief that they have a mandate
from heaven, and that you and I and everyone else in the West are
barbarians and vassals. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have built
their entire economy on the principle that it's OK to steal anything
they want from the barbarians because, after all, we're just
barbarians.

I want to emphasize that the Chinese people are not at fault here.
The same, identical Chinese people have thrived in Taiwan and colonial
Hong Kong. The governments of Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong have been
far superior to the pathetic CCP, which is committing genocide and
ethnic cleansing of Uighurs, is violently cracking down on Buddhists
and Christians, demolishing churches and temples, and is pathetically
terrified of the cartoon character Winnie the Pooh because Xi Jinping
looks like him. The great Chinese people in China are being crushed
and victimized by the evils of the CCP, which is why the Chinese
people in Taiwan are ten times wealthier and happier than the Chinese
people in China.

The gloves are really coming off now. Both the Chinese and American
negotiators are playing hardball. Right now, it appears that on
Friday massive new tariffs will be placed on Chinese imports. China
will retaliate with tariffs on American goods.

Possible scenarios:

• US-China negotiators will reach a new agreement quickly (not
  likely)
• Trump will postpone the new tariffs
• The tariffs will go into effect on Friday (likely)
• The tariffs will continue for months (likely)
• The Chinese economy will be hurt (likely)
• The Chinese economy will be devastated (unlikely but possible)
• The American economy will be hurt, but only in pockets
• The tariffs will trigger a stock market panic (unlikely but
  possible)
• The stock market will mostly discount the new tariffs in the next
  few weeks (likely)

So there you go, people. Place your bets!

---- Sources:

-- Exclusive: China backtracked on nearly all aspects of U.S. trade
deal - sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1SE0WJ
(Reuters, 8-May-2019)

[Guest]

We have to stop feeding the enemy machine. It's time to gear up for war. I've fought in wars before (infantry). I'm not afraid. Death is not the worse thing that can happen to someone. I know for personal experience. Best to die fighting.

[zzazz]

The Trump mob is learning that China can't be bullied. China is right to stand up to the bully. Intellectual property has become nothing more than pure theft. It is an albatross around America's neck and China knows it. Rather than fight a trade war with China to save our intellectual property laws which have have been nothing but a knife in the back of innovation, we should pass a constitutional amendment saying that no form of intellectual property shall be protected for a period longer that 10 years. Then we would be able to compete with China, and wouldn't need any trade wars.

[Tom Mazanec]

On the brink of war with Iran:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... em-to-care

[John]

** 08-May-2019 Theft of intellectual property

> The Trump mob is learning that China can't be bullied. China is
> right to stand up to the bully. Intellectual property has become
> nothing more than pure theft. It is an albatross around America's
> neck and China knows it. Rather than fight a trade war with China
> to save our intellectual property laws which have have been
> nothing but a knife in the back of innovation, we should pass a
> constitutional amendment saying that no form of intellectual
> property shall be protected for a period longer that 10 years.
> Then we would be able to compete with China, and wouldn't need any
> trade wars.

Lol! Even if your idiotic suggestion were followed, it wouldn't
make any difference. The CCP criminals would never wait ten
years to steal intellectual property. These criminals would
want to steal it today.

[CH86]

John, Its the US with its obsession with regime change that is exacerbating the problem. Without regime change although there would still be a danger of war with Iran, China and other countries, their regimes would be much less desperate and their would be less overall tension. This is because if for example, Iran attacked US forces in the gulf and the revolutionary guard was crippled by the counterattack for example, the bloody nose given to Iran would give the mullahs cause to have better relations with the US afterwards. A war over Taiwan, while it still might occur, would be much less likely to go nuclear without the US' "regime change" policy because the CCP leadership would know a showdown would be purely over the "pecking order" and not endanger CCP rule in China. NO sovereign states has the right to tell another sovereign state what form of government they should have, this is what we are doing in Venezuela and trying to do with China and Iran right now.

[John]

** 08-May-2019 China regime change

> John, Its the US with its obsession with regime change that is
> exacerbating the problem. Without regime change although there
> would still be a danger of war with Iran, China and other
> countries, their regimes would be much less desperate and their
> would be less overall tension. This is because if for example,
> Iran attacked US forces in the gulf and the revolutionary guard
> was crippled by the counterattack for example, the bloody nose
> given to Iran would give the mullahs cause to have better
> relations with the US afterwards. A war over Taiwan, while it
> still might occur, would be much less likely to go nuclear without
> the US' "regime change" policy because the CCP leadership would
> know a showdown would be purely over the "pecking order" and not
> endanger CCP rule in China. NO sovereign states has the right to
> tell another sovereign state what form of government they should
> have, this is what we are doing in Venezuela and trying to do with
> China and Iran right now.

Lol! For the CCP, regime change is the issue, but not the one you're
talking about. After the 1989 pro-democracy protests and the
Tiananmen Square of thousands of students, followed by the 1991
collapse of the Soviet Union, the people in the CCP have been totally
freaked out about regime change -- the CCP could collapse in the same
way the Soviet Communist Party could collapse, thanks to those
super-evil pro-democracy activists.

That's when the CCP started its vitriolic anti-Japan hate campaign and
its manic demand to invade and annex Taiwan. So yeah, the CCP are
totally paranoid and totally freaked out about regime change, but the
US has nothing to do with it.

The CCP officials have victimized and brutalized the great Chinese
people, but they don't care as long as they keep their jobs, perks,
and mistresses.

[CH86]

John, Globalists and followers of Douglas MacArthur and Joe McCarthy's doctrines have hated the fact that the CCP rules in Beijing from practically the moment the CCP assumed power there in 1949. Don't dare claim that you suddenly oppose CCP rule over there because they have become a military threat and great power contender something that has only been the case for the past decade really. You Macarthur-ites Have CCP rule since 1950 and have consistently sabotaged attempts to improve relations with the CCP, You guys almost tried to do so in 1969-72 but Nixon had other Ideas and you guys had to wait until the 1990s to have political influence in strategic circles again. All of this occurred long before China became a credible military threat (a development that has really only occurred over the past 10 years or so).

On another note John; As you mention the Chinese mandate of heaven has existed since roughly 1000 BC and archaeological evidence of the antecedents of Chinese imperial culture goes back to the 3rd millennium BC. Although here in the west the Current version of western civilization's building blocks date to the 8th century with Charlemagne, however antecedents of the west go back to at least as far back as Ancient Egypt and Sumeria (3000 BC). Archaeological evidence has proven the existence of long-distance trade as far back as the 8th millennium bc. I beg the question here globalists: how come at no point before 1945 and to the lesser extent even to the present, has there been no notion of "Crime" and "Criminal" at the international level. It is the globalist by trying to insert these notions of "Crime" , "Criminal" and "international punishment", directly contrary to 10000 years of world history, into the international level that is creating the possibility of a Nuclear third world war leading to a civilization collapse and a dark age. How come there was no notion of crime at the international level for 10000 years and during those 10000 years there was never a complete civilization collapse (partial collapses did yes, occur with regularity) yet globalists introduce these alien notions of international "criminals" and suddenly civilization itself has the possibility of going down the drain. Yet globalists like yourself, John; have the nerve and gall the declare that they know better than the rest of us, what a joke. Globalists, leave Venezuela, Iran and China alone. Venezuelan, Chinese and Iranian societal problems have to be solved by the Venezuelans, Chinese and Iranians themselves.

If Trump extends his pragmatism to the Foreign arena and focuses purely about expanding American power, then he would not have to worry about social issues or politics heading into 2020; he would then be able to win on foreign policy alone. The Trade war should focus purely or extracting concessions or implementing decoupling if necessary instead of focusing unrealistically on "Behavior".

[John]

** 08-May-2019 Douglas MacArthur

> John, Globalists and followers of Douglas MacArthur and Joe
> McCarthy's doctrines have hated the fact that the CCP rules in
> Beijing from practically the moment the CCP assumed power there in
> 1949. Don't dare claim that you suddenly oppose CCP rule over
> there because they have become a military threat and great power
> contender something that has only been the case for the past
> decade really.

In 1949, the world was still reeling from two world wars, and
continuing regional wars, massive homelessness and starvation. Many
people believed that unless something were done, there would soon be a
third world war, not against Fascism but this time against Communism.
That's when the Truman Doctrine made America Policeman of the World.

That belief was actually correct, though not for the "soon" part.
Today, the CCP has turned into a fully militarized Fascist political
state, committing genocide and ethnic cleansing, living in terror of
the cartoon character Winnie the Pooh because Xi Jinping looks like
him, and fully committed to a war of revenge against Japan and a war
of annexation against Taiwan.

The engine of history grinds forward inexorably, and those wars
are coming, no matter what the US does.

Just calling somebody a "globalist" doesn't make your gibberish any
less gibberishy.