Generational Dynamics World View News

[FishbellykanakaDude]

..and here is a possible "response" to the twitter thread above:

https://www.worth.com/coronavirus-data- ... -tell-you/

• ... But here’s the catch. A surge in testing—one that seems poised to commence after a slow rollout and criticism—will inevitably show a significant increase in serologically confirmed cases. When the existing prevalence of a virus is high and endemic, the rise in incidence of testing can create the appearance of a rise in incidence of a virus.
  
  Nonetheless, the demand for such circumspection, or any circumspection for that matter, during the current hysteria is understandably anemic. Instead, this is that part of the horror movie where the good intentions of good actors—the companies and agencies rising to the challenge of producing testing kits at an exponentially faster rate than during the 2003 SARS panic—end up serving the interest of the antagonist (the mob) rather than the protagonist (public interest). In an environment when the increasingly unhinging mob is already competing with each other to paint the worst possible portrait of the next several weeks, the bad-news industrial-complex is about to strike gold: They will soon get to spread the word “spread.”
  
  From there, the panic can drive itself. As more cases are serologically confirmed, perceptions of a spreading plague will spread, triggering demand for more testing, which will lead to more confirmed cases in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Such vicious cycles that promote runaway growth of fear are the anathema of a society that relies on stability, security and confidence. Feed-forward loops are the preferred algorithms of all self-expanding beasts, including cancer.

[guest]

Here's what I have seen in my local ER. It's filled with immigrants (many undocumented) and welfare types. These people know that they will not have to pay for their medical treatment. They even smirk when the staff try to discuss it with them. The illegals are the worst. I speak Spanish, so I understand what they saying. They think Americans are idiots, and they hate us. Let the Americans pay for everything. If Americans really knew how much these people hated us and held us in contempt, there would be a civil war. So here is my take. I believe the other posters are on point. The middle class will suffer through the Corona virus at home and infect their entire family. Many Americans will die. The immigrants and welfare divas will flood into the hospitals and bankrupt Medicaid and take up all of the available beds. They will live, and the American taxpayer will die. Depending on how many survive will determine if President Trump wins re-election because I think this will play directly into his hands.

[John]

** 08-Mar-2020 World View: Coronavirus flood

> Here's what I have seen in my local ER. It's filled with
> immigrants (many undocumented) and welfare types. These people
> know that they will not have to pay for their medical
> treatment. They even smirk when the staff try to discuss it with
> them. The illegals are the worst. I speak Spanish, so I understand
> what they saying. They think Americans are idiots, and they hate
> us. Let the Americans pay for everything. If Americans really knew
> how much these people hated us and held us in contempt, there
> would be a civil war. So here is my take. I believe the other
> posters are on point. The middle class will suffer through the
> Corona virus at home and infect their entire family. Many
> Americans will die. The immigrants and welfare divas will flood
> into the hospitals and bankrupt Medicaid and take up all of the
> available beds. They will live, and the American taxpayer will
> die. Depending on how many survive will determine if President
> Trump wins re-election because I think this will play directly
> into his hands.

You're making an analytic error that a lot of people make in a lot of
situations: To assume that as time goes forward, one variable will
change but everything else will stay the same.

The most obvious place where this error is made these days is with
climate change, where the so-called experts assume that co2 will
increase and nothing else will change, ignoring the effects of certain
things like technology changes and world war, and even coronavirus.

So in your example, you're talking about a flood of immigrants that
will take all available beds, so that many Americans will die.
Government and medical officials will never let that happen. As soon
as that kind of situation starts to arise, government officials,
hospital administrators, and medical practitioners would start
changing the rules to make sure everyone is protected. As they used
to say after 9/11/2001, the US Constitution is not a suicide pact.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

..just a little illustration of "exponential-ness":

[Guest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-elCYF ... e=youtu.be

Daughter‘s Story: family saved from COVID-19 virus with Vit C in Wuhan

[Navigator]

The vast majority of people, as those who read here understand, live in what I would call a bubble of “self experience”. This means that they don’t think something is possible, unless they personally have experienced it.

Nobody today has lived through a period where your life was in constant danger of ending due to sudden illness or infection. So, most people think that it is impossible, or, at the other extreme, they panic and think it is the end of the world.

The reality is that throughout most of history, people lived with the fact that they might come down with some kind of illness and die, even at a young age. Tuberculosis, Polio, Measles, Smallpox, and so on, regularly killed people, and there was little to nothing that could be done. Similarly, if you developed any kind of infection, due even to a simple cut or scrape, the infection would often kill you. Up until the 1940’s, about HALF of the people in hospitals were there with Sepsis, the result of infections.

The bubble of “self experience” has led people to do things like not inoculate their children. The parents have never experienced an epidemic, so they think something like that isn’t possible.

Thanks to vaccines and antibiotics, we have lived in a bubble of medical protection. This bubble is now failing. The “WuHu Flu” is probably the result of genetic research gone awry. What’s really frightening are the number of people doing genetic research in HOME LABORATORIES.

A vaccine might eventually be possible, so long as the Covid-19 doesn’t mutate much. I hope that is the case, but it might not be. And then of course is the possibility that additional new viral strains will either develop on their own, or some arrogant idiot will develop it in a lab and somehow release it.

On top of that, anti-biotics are starting to fail. Their over prescription and use in the meat industry have greatly reduced their effectiveness, and soon we will be facing even worse diseases that are antibiotic resistant.

The point is that this is not some kind of “new world”. It is the “old world”. The way things have usually been during history. Only our arrogance of thinking that we know everything and have answers to everything has led us to believe otherwise.

We will need to adapt and to deal with this as individuals and as families.

The world is returning to its norm in terms of lethality.

The WuHu flu is not the end. Nowhere near it. But it may very well have started the ball rolling towards the chaos that we expect.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... The point is that this is not some kind of “new world”. It is the “old world”. The way things have usually been during history. Only our arrogance of thinking that we know everything and have answers to everything has led us to believe otherwise.

We will need to adapt and to deal with this as individuals and as families.

The world is returning to its norm in terms of lethality.

The WuHu flu is not the end. Nowhere near it. But it may very well have started the ball rolling towards the chaos that we expect.

Us oldsters always think the world has run down and "aches", like our bodies have, and do.

The elders are/were amazed at how much the world has/had gotten safer. My Grandmother (b.1910) could not believe the "advancement" during her lifetime, and felt lucky for crumbs. The same with my Mother (b.1935), though a bit less, but she felt unhappy with not "having it all". Even I've been amazed (b.late-1950's), but not nearly so much as my predecessors, and I've definitely been a bored spoiled brat at times.

The youngsters I might have had are almost entirely blasé, as youth always are, and feel entirely entitled to "only the best", as that's what's been "sold" to them by people who are incredibly successful at "selling to them".

..I know that's a gross generalization. But it's more true than we'd like to admit.

As you oh so correctly said Navvy, every now and then the oldsters are right, and the world really is like our old bodies, creakin' and groanin',.. and ready for a reset.

The key insight from John is that this is caused by a failing (disappearing) institutional "living memory". The true felt experiential memory,.. usually of suffering and joy at the cessation of suffering.

The attempt at transferring this "living memory" is what art is all about, and it is the only hope humanity has, and makes, to bridge the time of the catastrophic decay, trauma, and resurrection,.. the "Three Days in Hell" we create for ourselves (as societies).

Art can't stop the cycle, but it offers a road map and encouragement that we don't give up at the bottom of the spin.

Only when "art" is the literal equivalent of "living memory" will we have any chance at making the four part wheel of life less of a wheel on which to be broken, and more of a means of productive transport toward the humane.

Aloha nui ʻoe, Navvy! Nā mahalo.

[richard5za]

The vast majority of people, as those who read here understand, live in what I would call a bubble of “self experience”. This means that they don’t think something is possible, unless they personally have experienced it.

Nobody today has lived through a period where your life was in constant danger of ending due to sudden illness or infection. So, most people think that it is impossible, or, at the other extreme, they panic and think it is the end of the world.

The reality is that throughout most of history, people lived with the fact that they might come down with some kind of illness and die, even at a young age. Tuberculosis, Polio, Measles, Smallpox, and so on, regularly killed people, and there was little to nothing that could be done. Similarly, if you developed any kind of infection, due even to a simple cut or scrape, the infection would often kill you. Up until the 1940’s, about HALF of the people in hospitals were there with Sepsis, the result of infections.

The bubble of “self experience” has led people to do things like not inoculate their children. The parents have never experienced an epidemic, so they think something like that isn’t possible.

Thanks to vaccines and antibiotics, we have lived in a bubble of medical protection. This bubble is now failing. The “WuHu Flu” is probably the result of genetic research gone awry. What’s really frightening are the number of people doing genetic research in HOME LABORATORIES.

A vaccine might eventually be possible, so long as the Covid-19 doesn’t mutate much. I hope that is the case, but it might not be. And then of course is the possibility that additional new viral strains will either develop on their own, or some arrogant idiot will develop it in a lab and somehow release it.

On top of that, anti-biotics are starting to fail. Their over prescription and use in the meat industry have greatly reduced their effectiveness, and soon we will be facing even worse diseases that are antibiotic resistant.

The point is that this is not some kind of “new world”. It is the “old world”. The way things have usually been during history. Only our arrogance of thinking that we know everything and have answers to everything has led us to believe otherwise.

We will need to adapt and to deal with this as individuals and as families

The world is returning to its norm in terms of lethality.

The WuHu flu is not the end. Nowhere near it. But it may very well have started the ball rolling towards the chaos that we expect.

Yes, I make this point to younger people from time to time. I was born in 1947 and grew up in Zimbabwe. Penicillin became available to the public in 1954 and before that ailments like pneumonia were a killer. You looked after your health more; like your mother putting you to bed when you had a cold, and your older relatives and people died younger. Life was less certain and death more common. It was life and will be life

[Guest]

I’m certainly not an expert, but here’s the things I’ve noticed:
1. Our current flu shot’s efficiency is about 30 to 60%. These are the best vaccines they have; the same ones are given to movie stars, nobility, politicians and middle class alike. None of them are 100% efficient. This means that out of every 100 people who gets a flu shot, 40 to 70 of them will still get the flu. The most logical explanation as to why vaccines are so inefficient is virus mutation. By the time the vaccine is developed and tested and sent out to be manufactured, the virus has mutated. That does not mean the vaccine won’t protect you; it means the potency is less effective against a virus that is fighting back. The un-mutated virus is a heavy bag and the mutated virus is a boxing match.
2. There are usually 2 to 4 strains every year covered by the flu shot. Each strain in it may have more or less efficiency than another strain in it. Depending on the strain that’s going around, you may have strong efficiency protection or just a little. All in all, and simply put, they work together to help keep you from contracting one strain when you might have contracted another strain. And also simply put, if you are one of the 40 to 70 who contract a strain in the flu shot, the vaccine can help you fight off the strain you contracted, so the severity is not as bad as it could be. I’m a pro boxer and the virus is an amateur. You are not totally out of luck if you contract a strain not covered by your flu shot. There is evidence that your body develops defenses to help you fight against them too. However, there is no reporting that I’m aware of that this is the case or not the case with Covid-19. Since older and/or people with preexisting conditions are more likely to get flu shots, I suspect this is not the case for Covid-19. I’ve heard many health reporters saying wash your hands, stay 6 feet away from people, don’t touch your face, etc. I’ve not heard one of them say, oh and by the way, get a flu shot. I don’t know, maybe they did but I didn’t hear it. But who knows, the flu shot might be the reason Covid-19 is not killing 25% of us. This could be an even match.
3. So to put this in context, I had my flu shot this year. I have a 30 to 60% chance of catching that nasty flu that has been going around my city since November and still is.. So far, I’ve been lucky or protected or both to not get it. I attribute some of my luck to my vigilance. If I do catch one of those viruses, my body has defenses to help me from getting very ill from them and I have less than a 0.1% chance I will die. On the other hand, I have a 100% chance that I will get Covid-19 when I am exposed to it and vigilance may not be enough. If I get it, there is a 20% chance it will be severe and a 3 to 4% chance I will die. By the time there is a vaccine for it, it might mutate. I am fighting a boxer who is way better than me.
4. A mask won’t protect you but it will protect health care workers on the front line. You don’t need one because they don’t have enough. My boxing opponent cheats.
5. What happened to 24 days for exposure to symptoms? It got a lot of press for a while. Could it be because 24 days is VERY hard and costly to quarantine? My trainer just bet against me.
6. They are telling us that it is unlikely that a person without symptoms is contagious. Well, tell that to all those people on the cruise ships who were exposed before anyone had symptoms and then they died. How many people did we allow into this country because they didn’t have a fever? Shadow boxers, everywhere.
7. Excuse me, but my opponent just pulled my boxers down. Dirty fighter.

[Guest]

Yes, I make this point to younger people from time to time. I was born in 1947 and grew up in Zimbabwe. Penicillin became available to the public in 1954 and before that ailments like pneumonia were a killer. You looked after your health more; like your mother putting you to bed when you had a cold, and your older relatives and people died younger. Life was less certain and death more common. It was life and will be life

Do you live in Zimbabwe now? Do they even have a functioning medical system now?