Financial topics

[vincecate]

Final bottom could be what? Maybe 500 to 700?

I am going to guess low of 1111 on S&P within next 2 years. Anyone else willing to venture a guess?

[vincecate]

I heard an estimate today that the Fed would have to do $4.5 trillion in "asset purchases" just to stabilize the market.

Going back to what I posted about the BOJ now being under water on their ETF purchases, what is the Fed going to do if they purchase stocks and the stock prices fall below where they purchased. I would have to wonder, given the situation that the BOJ finds themselves in, as to whether the Fed would really go through with some idiotic plan like that. I think they would because I said years ago that Bernanke wouldn't be stupid enough to do QE at the scale that was actually done, but he went through with it anyway. Full speed ahead like Captain Ahab taking down the Pequod.

Yes, it seems that $500 billion was really only part of the plan.

I believe the Fed does not have the legal power to buy anything but government bonds. But I can imagine them telling someone they will buy their bonds if they promise to use the money to buy stocks.

[Higgenbotham]

Final bottom could be what? Maybe 500 to 700?

I am going to guess low of 1111 on S&P within next 2 years. Anyone else willing to venture a guess?

650 in a standard bear market. In other words, half of fair value or trend.

[John]

** 13-Mar-2020 World View: Top 20 S&P 500 plunges in history

Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch

The S&P 500 began in 1926, 94 years of history. Today was the fifth
biggest one day plunge all-time. Monday was #20

• Top 20 S&P 500 plunges since 1926

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresear ... 7652957196

[vincecate]

The S&P 500 began in 1926, 94 years of history. Today was the fifth
biggest one day plunge all-time. Monday was #20

I am interested in this coming Monday...

[John]

** 13-Mar-2020 World View: South Korea bans short selling

South Korea on Friday announced a temporary ban on stock short selling
for six months.

South Korea's benchmark stock index, the KOSPI, dipped to a near
five-year low Thursday after tumbling 3.87%.

On Thursday, stock short selling reached a yearly high of 1.09
trillion won ($893 million).

The KOSPI again closed sharply lower Friday at 1,771.44, down 3.4%
from the previous session's close, but recovered from a more than 8%
plunge earlier in the day.

The Bank of Korea said it will take "active steps" to help
stabilize the local stock market and foreign exchange market.

-- S. Korea temporarily bans stock short selling for 6 months
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200313000701
(Yonhap, 13-Mar-2020)

[aeden]

Ounces of gold to buy the Dow will only be remembered.

We told them to prepare.

Our duty has been done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p3DzUwxI0o

[Higgenbotham]

Something I pasted in my notes years ago:

"A very, very successful trader once told me, to watch the Thursday the week before futures/options expiration. If there is a major move that day, the week of futures/options expiration will move in the opposite direction."

I've never paid much attention to this, as it is hard to define what a major move would be and, according to how I would see it, there's never been a major move on that day to take notice of until now. But we definitely had one yesterday, a major move down, which was "the Thursday the week before futures/options expiration". So according to this market lore, next week should continue up.

[Higgenbotham]

Marty Schwartz is known as the Pit Bull. He has a trade he looks for every month. Many analysts refer to this trade as the Pit Bull low. This trade was taught to me by one of the Pit Bull’s best friends. I love this trade and I look for it each and every month. This trade is crazy good.

Schwartz looks for SPX to trade at a low for the week on the Thursday / Friday, a week before options expiration Friday. Options expire on the 3rd Friday of every month, so I was taught to look for a weekly low one week earlier on the Thursday or Friday.

The SPX chart below shows that eight of the past nine Pit Bull Low trades have worked to perfection. Only last month did the trade not work…mind you the low came in on Wednesday so it was close.

https://www.simplertrading.com/the-pit- ... -9-months/

[John]

** 13-Mar-2020 World View: Major move

> Something I pasted in my notes years ago:

> "A very, very successful trader once told me, to watch the
> Thursday the week before futures/options expiration. If there is a
> major move that day, the week of futures/options expiration will
> move in the opposite direction."

> I've never paid much attention to this, as it is hard to define
> what a major move would be and, according to how I would see it,
> there's never been a major move on that day to take notice of
> until now. But we definitely had one yesterday, a major move
> down, which was "the Thursday the week before futures/options
> expiration". So according to this market lore, next week should
> continue up.

So if I understand what the very, very, very successful trader told
you, the market is going to shoot up next week. Is that what you're
saying? To 30,000?