Hah ha ha ha...! Very good.Guest wrote:'Kiss me I'm from Wuhan' t-shirts will be big sellers too...

..That's why "The Comedy Industry™" was mentioned.
How about: "I got Tested, and all I got was this Ventilator!"

Hah ha ha ha...! Very good.Guest wrote:'Kiss me I'm from Wuhan' t-shirts will be big sellers too...
Sex toys? Sex VR? Sex robots? People who are accustomed to using tinder to get their rocks off are not going to be satisfied with regular old internet porn for very long.John wrote:** 15-Mar-2020 World View: The Real Economy
In analyzing how the crisis will unfold in the next few months, there
are three related issues that everyone is conflating, but which are
really quite separate:
What I'm particularly interested in is the real economy. The spread
- The spread of the virus
- The stock market
- The real economy
of the virus is a potential disaster, and the stock market is a
potential disaster, but I believe that, although it will be hurt, the
real economy will do better than many people expect.
To show what I mean, here's what happened between 1929-33:
The GNP represents what I'm calling the "real economy." These are
- the stock market fell 90%
- but the GNP (gross national product) fell only 35%.
ordinary businesses, often private businesses completely unaffected by
the stock market, that are scrambling to do everything possible to
stay in business.
If a restaurant or bar wants to stay open, then the owner will
separate the tables and place screens between them to create
compartments, and then sanitize each compartment after the people
leave.
If a factory wants to stay open, and it depends on supply chains
originating from one country whose factories can't supply them, then
the owner will look for new suppliers in other countries.
Here are some examples of businesses that are likely to do well in the
next few months:
Even in the worst case scenario, we can imagine a world that's as busy
- Suppliers of bathroom and medical supplies.
- Beds, furniture, and various "self-isolation" products
- Online education services
- Telemedicine / telehealth services
- Online entertainment and gaming
- Electric scooter rentals (so you won't have to take the bus)
- Adaptive clothing of all kinds (protection from virus)
- Air filtration systems (for boats and planes)
and bustling as it was until recently, but now people are protected by
special clothing or compartmentalization or special safe modes of
transportation. These are all technically within reach -- and in fact
are really quite simple to implement -- but they just haven't been
necessary until now.
I believe that the real economy is going to do a lot better than most
people think, and possibly a lot better than the stock market, as it
did during the Great Depression.
So does anyone have any thoughts about businesses that will do well,
and possible surprises, during the next few months?
I am not clear where you included global debt in the 3 points above, John. I suspect that debt is the biggest issue we are facing. Corporate debt alone is around $ 75 trillion and unpayable. Total global debt you posted as $ 260 trillion and I agree with your figure.John wrote:** 15-Mar-2020 World View: The Real Economy
In analyzing how the crisis will unfold in the next few months, there
are three related issues that everyone is conflating, but which are
really quite separate:
What I'm particularly interested in is the real economy. The spread
- The spread of the virus
- The stock market
- The real economy
of the virus is a potential disaster, and the stock market is a
potential disaster, but I believe that, although it will be hurt, the
real economy will do better than many people expect.
So does anyone have any thoughts about businesses that will do well,
and possible surprises, during the next few months?
There's no way that the global debt crisis will be resolvedrichard5za wrote: > I am not clear where you included global debt in the 3 points
> above, John. I suspect that debt is the biggest issue we are
> facing. Corporate debt alone is around $ 75 trillion and
> unpayable. Total global debt you posted as $ 260 trillion and I
> agree with your figure.
> Some market analysts have suggested that eventually we will reach
> a point called "the Great Reset". A fellow called John Mauldin has
> long been a proponent of this theory. The theory basically says
> that there will be a grand debt jubilee, where all debt is written
> off and the slate wiped clean. I have no idea how this works in
> practice, but what I have always thought is that we will only get
> to that point when there has been a credit crisis of epic
> proportions and no other way out. It will be a last resort plan
> and way out of the mess. Could take a long time to get there
> too. By that stage most of us will be living in poverty
John wrote:... If everyone gets sick at
once, then the "Healthcare system capacity" will be exceeded. But if
the same number of cases is spread over time, and the curve is
flattened, then according to this graph, the healthcare system will be
able to handle them.
Here's another one:
[im g]https://miro.medium.com/max/1600/0*U8p2wc_K6APLgTeQ.gif[/img]
- Dynamic flattening graph
The article does some calculations, and concludes that this won't
work unless the length of the flattened curve is a decade.
-- Graphics: Flattening the curve
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flatteni ... a324fe9727
(Medium, 16-Mar-2020)
There will be a "Debt Jubilee Light" within two years, which will be a forgiveness/write-off of debt of some portion of debt, simply to relieve the immediate pressure on everyone (as everyone owes everyone to some extent), but a portion of the debt will remain in place without a "collection enforcement" being implemented.John wrote:** 16-Mar-2020 World View: Global debt
There's no way that the global debt crisis will be resolvedrichard5za wrote:...
> Some market analysts have suggested that eventually we will reach
> a point called "the Great Reset". A fellow called John Mauldin has
> long been a proponent of this theory. The theory basically says
> that there will be a grand debt jubilee, where all debt is written
> off and the slate wiped clean. ...
without a world war. ...
The "old" word for the "sexy" stuff is (as I said above): "Teledildonics".MrGuest wrote:... Sex toys? Sex VR? Sex robots? People who are accustomed to using tinder to get their rocks off are not going to be satisfied with regular old internet porn for very long.
Can you say more about this adaptive clothing?
This is speculative, but I think it might also be possible to createFishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Adaptive clothing would be something like Single Use Overgarments
> (trashable at the door) that are still "stylish". This would also
> include shoes and gloves. And "lung protectors", which would be a
> "stylish" facemask wherein the user's face is entirely visible
> (bubble mask).
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