Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 18-Mar-2020 World View: The China mousetrap

> It takes very little energy to trip a mousetrap. The efficacy of
> the trap, though, is not determined by the triggering energy, but
> rather by the pent up "spring" that kills the little varmint.

> Non-crisis wars are what they are because the spring is
> weak-ish. Crisis wars have massively twisted springs just itchin'
> to squish and shred.

> My opinion is that the trap is being "restrained" by <insert
> favorite belligerent here> because it's not yet "powerful" enough
> to thoroughly enough kill "the enemy" in a way that is
> "satisfying" enough.

> (( Enough with the ENOUGHS, already! ))

> I don't see that happening until AFTER the next US Presidential
> election in 2024 (when Trump leaves office), and until the tech is
> in place to dominate the "communication and surveillance"
> infrastructure of the planet.

> That tech will be developed and largely deployed during the
> "rebuild" after the pandemic, and the tensions created by the
> "final steps" of its implementation from early (late January) 2025
> will explode into war in the spring of 2026.

> The Chinese will not get "what they want" at some point, most
> likely late summer of 2025, and they (and we) will start off a
> series of tit for tats that will allow some "Pissing Soldier"
> casus belli to fling the gates wide open.

> ..but then that's just my half-assed opinion, of course!

> Fun times, eh,.. fun times...!!

Please give tim another chance.

It's not possible to judge the pent-up power of the spring in the
mousetrap. In particular, the snap of the mousetrap will not depend
on any US election, but will depend on generational flows within China
itself. Mousetraps are inward looking, not outward looking.

My research has found that the pent-up power is great enough for a new
crisis war after the 58-year mark past the climax of the preceding
crisis war, and then the pent-up power grows greater each day.

So, for China, the pent-up power in the spring was great enough in the
year 2007 (=1949+58), and the power of the spring has been growing
since then.

So the mousetrap could snap any time.

[John]

** 18-Mar-2020 World View: Obsessive pessimism

> LOL I didn't say anything racist. The words I used can be applied
> to any race.

> John, I owe you a thank you. 10 years ago I found your site and
> read your book. When I finished reading the book I understood the
> theory and saw the cycles in all the countries then I started to
> panic.

> I completely changed my life, moved out of the city, made
> decisions knowing where we were headed.

> I told friends and family about GD who laughed at me called me
> crazy and now here we are.

> I am as ready as I will ever be. I can't imagine where I would be
> today had I not found your work.

> A more intelligent and civilized people would have prepared for
> this.

> You think we are unprepared now? When the Chinese missiles start
> flying how many governments have Geiger counters?

Please give Fishbelly another chance.

Thanks for the compliment. I'm glad that my book has turned you
into the same kind obsessive pessimist as I am.

With regard to preparation, the trends are clear. Republicans
and Democrats are slowly but surely becoming increasingly united
behind Trump, and young people are slowly but surely coming to
the full realization that this is a serious situation, and
it affects their families.

Trump has particularly been doing all he can to beef up the
armed forces, and to block Chinese infiltration of the country.
There's no simple solution to this, but it's the trend.

[DaKardii]

I think it's time to update the State of the World table. And rename the Swine Flu/Bird Flu/Ebola category.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

LOL I didn't say anything racist. The words I used can be applied to any race.

...

I shall give you another chance, but...

The lack of ethnicity in your disparaging remark is irrelevant to its being racist.

I suppose "collective punishment" might be a better word than "racist" in this case.

I'm just as adamantly opposed to collective punishment as I am to racism, as I consider racism to simply be a subset of collective punishment.

It is NEVER appropriate, and it harms the credibility of anyone who expresses it.

Better luck to you in your choice of words and understanding of "collective punishment" in the future.

[tim]

Further evidence for my theory that the virus was leaked on purpose by China to attack China's enemies - back in 2005 a Chinese general went on record stating they were ready to accept destruction of "all cities to the East of Xian"

""War logic dictates that a weaker power needs to use maximum efforts to defeat a stronger rival," he was reported as saying by the New York Times."

They are on record stating heavy causalities are acceptable to them. This was also 15 years ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/ ... athanwatts

A senior Chinese general has warned that his country could destroy hundreds of American cities with nuclear weapons if the two nations clashed over Taiwan.
Major general Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the National Defence University, said he was expressing a private opinion, but his comments, the most inflammatory by a senior government official in 10 years, will fuel growing concerns in Washington about the rise of China.

Speaking at a lecture arranged by the foreign ministry and attended by several foreign correspondents on Thursday, Mr Zhu said China was prepared to initiate non-conventional warfare over Taiwan. "War logic dictates that a weaker power needs to use maximum efforts to defeat a stronger rival," he was reported as saying by the New York Times.

"If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons."

Echoing threats last made in 1995, Mr Zhu, who has a reputation as a hawk in Chinese military circles, said his country was ready to sustain heavy casualties in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other heavily populated areas.

"We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian," he said. "Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

Although Mr Zhu said war was unlikely, his proposal that China should adopt a first-strike nuclear option against the US will alarm the Pentagon.

China tested its first atomic bomb in 1964, but it claims that its arsenal of nuclear weapons is the smallest among the five nations on the UN security council.

According to a recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, China has only 18 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the US mainland. Most sit in their silos unarmed.

However, US intelligence predicts that over the next 15 years, China will expand its IBM force to 75-100 strategic nuclear warheads targeted primarily at the US. They will be mounted on a new mobile solid-fuel rocket, the Dong Feng-31, and, possibly, miniaturised for launch from China's submarine fleet.

The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, recently expressed concern about Beijing's growing military power. Such strategic fears come at a time of rising Sino-American tensions over the bilateral trade deficit and competition for global energy resources.

The Chinese government refused to comment on Mr Zhu's statement, but in recent weeks the state-run media has carried several articles rebutting US claims about a military build-up. Earlier this month, Major General Ding Jiye, head of the finance office of the People's Liberation Army, said the 12.6% rise in defence spending this year was in line with economic growth and was mainly used to improve the living conditions of soldiers.

The China Daily, the English-language paper aimed at an overseas audience, focused on the planned reduction of 200,000 military personnel from the 2.5 million-strong army by the end of this year.

Analysts say China has learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union that it would be economic suicide to attempt an arms race with the US.

But there are still risks of a clash over Taiwan, a self-governing island that China considers part of its territory and the US has vowed to protect.

The president of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, urged his hosts yesterday to resume dialogue with Taiwan before 2008.

"This will also greatly advance China's international standing and reputation as a global player with a particular responsibility for peace and security in east Asia," said Mr Barroso, who was on his first official trip to China.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 18-Mar-2020 World View: The China mousetrap

> It takes very little energy to trip ...

Please give tim another chance.

Right-O,.. done. Until next time,.. which I'm expecting in a couple of days. <chuckle!>

It's not possible to judge the pent-up power of the spring in the
mousetrap. In particular, the snap of the mousetrap will not depend
on any US election, but will depend on generational flows within China
itself. Mousetraps are inward looking, not outward looking.

I think it is possible to judge (measure) that spring energy, but I certainly can't do it very well, admittedly. My spit-balled judgement is, as they say, "strictly for entertainment purposes only, and should not be used as authoritative information".

The CCP panic and initiation of war won't depend on a US election. My opinion is that the confluence of a mostly rebuilt Chinese economy (and the rest of the world) and the perceived weak-point during the US handover of power to a new administration (by the CCP) will embolden the CCP to start pushing for what it deems "necessary and just" access to things that the West will not allow.

A mousetrap that goes off "when it feels like it" isn't something I'd buy! Even mousetraps wait for appropriate external stimuli before implementing their most near and dear aspirations.

My research has found that the pent-up power is great enough for a new
crisis war after the 58-year mark past the climax of the preceding
crisis war, and then the pent-up power grows greater each day.

The power is CERTAINLY there on the part of the CCP, but it may not be sufficiently there for the internal populations of China.

PLUS,.. it may be actively stifled (held back) BY the CCP if any even more advantageous situation seems likely in the future.

So, for China, the pent-up power in the spring was great enough in the
year 2007 (=1949+58), and the power of the spring has been growing
since then.

So the mousetrap could snap any time.

Absolutely agree. I would prefer that the spring itself snap (break), dissipating the energy in the spring, without the whip-lever being loosed at all.

Do I think that'll happen? Not really. I think the CCP has the spring's resiliency (the spring's ability to hold it's potential energy without snapping) pretty well monitored.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Further evidence for my theory that the virus was leaked on purpose by China to attack China's enemies - back in 2005 a Chinese general went on record stating they were ready to accept destruction of "all cities to the East of Xian" ...

That is both boasting/bluster and "making a silk purse out of a sow's ear" on the part of the CCP.

I, personally, am much more "agitated" when the Chinese become quiet than when they bluster, boast and try to make obvious detrimental inevitabilities into virtues.


That said, you could be entirely correct! If you can be convincing with someone with real power to do something, go for it bucky! Take the news to the Chiefs, my good man.


I'm assuming that someone within the "powers that be" in the West is running this scenario, and will react to indications appropriately.

[tim]

I'm assuming that someone within the "powers that be" in the West is running this scenario, and will react to indications appropriately.

I hope so. I hope that John was right about Steve Bannon and Trump knowing war with China was coming.

The pessimistic side of me says that this is the modern Fall of Rome.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Is "Chinese Virus" racist?

No,.. but it IS a lovely jab in the eye of those who feel guilty about not telling folks about it when they should have!

Should Trump keep on jabbing them?

Yes, as it's a very good provocation to "incentivize" the "bad guys" to make fools of themselves and to, more importantly, expose their "enablers" throughout the world as CCP tools.

The cost for benefit ratio of this tactic is beautifully small, and a wonderful counter hammer to the CCP disinformation/propaganda campaign that never ends.

My routine, were I Trump, would be to ask any "journalist", inferring that the phrase is racist, what the CCP/Chinese ownership or Ad Revenue IS in the organization that they work for.

..they'd say, "I don't know", and I'd say, "I'll answer your questions when you can answer mine. Next!"

[FishbellykanakaDude]

. . . . . . . . . .

..one of my buds (that I don't know or live near but he's holding an uku, so...) :



..and no, he's not flipping you off.