Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

My best guess near term date for a crash is Monday, May 18, 2020.

The ten year anniversary of the flash crash is May 6, 2010. I'll be watching that, but I think it is more likely that the big crash day if there is to be one soon will be May 18.

My big question is where will the S&P 500 top out? I am forecasting a 61.8 retracement (being an Elliot man) which is around 2935. I could see a crash on Monday May 4 for Wall Street and the next day elsewhere. Both 11 and 18 May are possible, as is 25. Just based upon bear market patterns I would say earlier rather than later. However, I have no mathematical, historical or quantitative evidence for anything I've said except perhaps the 61.8
What will flatten my ego is if this market continues up and makes a new record high!! It's possible albeit so unlikely.
I am ready to go short!

I know a former pit trader at the CME who won't short the 61.8% retracement because, according to him, it gets exceeded too often, and he will only short the 78.6% retracement. He was telling me that after the February 2018 drop and I think he got the retracement he was looking for. I have my doubts that it will get to the 78.6% retracement this time.

I was talking to my broker last week. He works with a trader who's had a pretty hot hand over the years. His approach was to sell 1/4 at 2840, 1/4 at 2880 (quite good so far) and 1/2 at 2920. He doesn't think it will get to 2920, but says it could.

If the market follows the 1929 and 1987 patterns, the big generational crash day will be about 2-3 weeks after the secondary top. But that's not why I am pinpointing May 18. I'll talk about why after the fact (whether it happens or not) but anyone who's read John over the years can figure it out.

[Higgenbotham]

Also, there would be a minor alert for tomorrow. My reasoning would be, as posted a few times here before, large initial down moves have occurred 10 calendar days after a high (the May 6, 2010 flash crash occurred 10 days after the April 26, 2010 high, for example). So far, the high in the S&P has been April 17.

[aeden]

I have my doubts that it will get to the 78.6% retracement this time.

My purchases have nothing to do with fundamentals until August or later.
The last purchase was a stock destroyed by the oil wars as a dislocation in the EU zone.
The other was a communication company crushed by the herd and had nothing to do with fundamentals as a ADR.
I do not know when another dislocation occurs but your window elates a lot of good experience
and the FED will decide what velvit rope survives next week for the inclined buy list
as the analyst twist in the suckers gauntlet in the tautological suckers list.
The liquidity problem was targeted at ten minutes to close.
I have not opened an aggregate short so far.

thread: velvit rope

[vincecate]

It is more and more clear that the virus is not going to kill off 3.4% of the population. The good news has cheered people up some. And the virus is nearly the only news.

At some point people are going to look at economic news. These unemployment reports could shake people:
Reference Month Release Date Release Time
April 2020 May 08, 2020 08:30 AM
May 2020 Jun. 05, 2020 08:30 AM

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm


Mish thinks we are going form March's 4.4% report to Apr of 23.1% unemployment.

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... yment-rate

Seems like 23+% should start to get people's attention.

[aeden]

Trump goes thieving Rhino He loses the election and the market crashes.
Independents will not show up and the body farm demsheviks know this also.
He let up on NGO criminals and they buried Him.
They played this hand and Trump went full retard Rhino anyways.
H and V are over the target in my view for a May crash.
I will not vote Rhino. The Major City's are infested with millions and millions who do not even belong here
and yes they can get in line as they should of in the first place.

... As we noted in Texas the uhauls are going one way. They are not democrats. As we warned as seen from friends and family in Arizona we see Sat May 27, 2017 8:56 am uhauls and they are sure as hell are not moving west.

They voted with with their feet and now they think a disinfectant dialog is an issue why voters are past adjectives.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelli ... d=70031273

Angry cannot cover it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/we-ran ... es-one-day
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ion#p50030

[Higgenbotham]

... As we noted in Texas the uhauls are going one way. They are not democrats.

You are correct.

I've been listening to Governor Abbott's town halls. He was talking about the influx from California and was worried about Texas turning blue. In a subsequent town hall he was asked about this and Governor Abbott said we took a look at who is coming in from California and they are not Democrats.

[Higgenbotham]

Despite the uncertainties, she was trying to focus on work rather than what the city had just gone through. “I can’t see news about medical workers without crying,” Yao said, choking back tears and rubbing a jade keychain attached to her phone. She was having trouble sleeping, as she turned over the stories of doctors and nurses who’d succumbed to Covid-19 again and again in her head: “I don’t know these people, but if someone tells me what happened to them, it’s devastating. These deaths aren’t just numbers or strange names to me. They’re vivid lives.” She believed that many of her neighbors and colleagues were experiencing similar emotions but might not be willing or able to talk about them. “Many other people are traumatized but can’t recognize the problem or express their feelings,” she said.

The pandemic was causing Yao to rethink her life. She spent almost half of last year on the road, often visiting clients overseas. Now, she said, she wanted to spend much more time at home, keeping her family close. Her son was supposed to return to Australia for university in February, but he was unable to get there, for obvious reasons. Yao didn’t want him to go back.

Even after seemingly world-shattering events, human behavior has a way of reverting to the mean. In the weeks after Sept. 11, commentators predicted the end of globalization, of the skyscraper, of irony—which all, needless to say, persisted. Within a couple of years of the global financial crisis, banks and homebuyers were back to arranging risky mortgages, and the very wealthy were back to, and then well beyond, pre-2008 levels of excess.

It’s reasonable to think this time will be different. Hardly anyone alive today has endured a pandemic this severe, and the basic problem it’s created—that anyone, whether friend, family, or stranger, might be a vector for lethal infection—is uniquely corrosive to the daily interactions that keep countries and economies going. An effective vaccine could be at least a year off, and given what the world has learned about how quickly a novel pathogen can shut everything down, even that might not return things to the way they were. Wuhan was the first place to traverse both sides of the Covid-19 curve, and how it changes, or doesn’t, in the disease’s aftermath will say a lot to the rest of us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... nt-anxiety

[John]

** 27-Apr-2020 World View: Yao's jade

> Despite the uncertainties, she was trying to focus on work rather
> than what the city had just gone through. “I can’t see news about
> medical workers without crying,” Yao said, choking back tears and
> rubbing a jade keychain attached to her phone. She was having
> trouble sleeping, as she turned over the stories of doctors and
> nurses who’d succumbed to Covid-19 again and again in her head: “I
> don’t know these people, but if someone tells me what happened to
> them, it’s devastating. These deaths aren’t just numbers or
> strange names to me. They’re vivid lives.” She believed that many
> of her neighbors and colleagues were experiencing similar emotions
> but might not be willing or able to talk about them. “Many other
> people are traumatized but can’t recognize the problem or express
> their feelings,” she said.

As Yao was stroking her jade keychain, she noticed a handsome young
man staring at her. Suddenly she was so nervous that she dropped her
keys. The young man rushed over, picked up her keys, and asked her if
it would be OK if they both stroked her jade together. As they
stroked the jade, they stared into each others eyes. She felt hot,
and everything was hazy and all out of focus. He touched her arm and
felt in the spell of a strange hocus pocus. Suddenly he was overcome
by passion, and he pulled her to him, and tasted the passion in her
mouth. They both fell into the hospital bed next to them, and spent
the next few hours consuming each other. They told each other that
it's nice to be alive, when you meet someone who bewitches you. When
it was over they got dressed and went their separate ways. Both of
them died a week later from a Covid-19 infection they had gotten from
the hospital bed.

-----------

You guys need a little bit of musical entertainment.

This is A Little Bit In Love sung beautifully by Audra McDonald. The
song is originally from the 1953 show Wonderful Town.



Lyrics by Betty Comden and Adolph Green, music by Leonard Bernstein

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2ZPldWZqqA

[Higgenbotham]

You guys need a little bit of musical entertainment.

This is A Little Bit In Love sung beautifully by Audra McDonald. The
song is originally from the 1953 show Wonderful Town.

Lyrics by Betty Comden and Adolph Green, music by Leonard Bernstein

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2ZPldWZqqA

You have rescued all of us who were wondering what we will do for entertainment when Disney World has to close permanently.

[vincecate]

So we are starting to get some better data. It seems worse than I was thinking.

The Coronavirus Isn’t Just the Flu, Bro
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... JT06yPEGuo