Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

It seems the more removed they became from reality the more they had to censor people's thoughts and words and then actions. I wonder if we can find a historical parallel that really resembles our current situation?

[John]

** 02-Nov-2020 World View: Election polling

> Here's the thing, most voters are low information and don't know
> very much about who the candidates actually are. For Democrats,
> they only pay attention to Big News which is fully in the bag for
> Biden. They are voting for an illusion which has been presented to
> them rather than an actual person. You can blame them for not
> doing any research, but who would really expect the sheer amount
> of lies and distortion coming out of the Corporate News? It's
> unprecedented.

The polling situation is bizarre. The mainstream media polls are all
showing that Biden is ahead nationally, as well in the important
individual states, and so a Biden victory is almost certain.

Some of these polls show Trump very far behind. Trump himself is
calling these "suppression polls," saying that they're fake polls with
the purpose of discouraging Trump supporters from voting. However, it
seems to me that they would also discourage Biden supporters from
voting.

The Fox News poll also predicts a Biden victory. But some of the
analysts appearing on Fox News are saying that the mainstream polls
are fake, that they're over-counting Democrats, and that they're not
counting the "shy Trump voters," people who are afraid to say that
they're voting for Trump.

The principal pollster predicting a Trump victory is the Trafalgar
Group.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

They claim to be the only pollsters who correctly predicted that Trump
would win in 2016, and that the mainstream pollsters are making the
same mistakes in their models as in 2016. I saw the head of the
Trafalgar Group on Fox News yesterday, and he actually laughed at the
mainstream polls and mocked them, and said that Trump is going to win.

I have no idea which side to believe, and with the mail-in ballot
chaos, we may not know for a few days or weeks, as each side is
sending armies of lawyers into each state, ready to argue over which
mail-in ballots are valid, and which are to be thrown out.

[John]

** 02-Nov-2020 World View: Censorship over Vietnam War

> It seems the more removed they became from reality the more they
> had to censor people's thoughts and words and then actions. I
> wonder if we can find a historical parallel that really resembles
> our current situation?

As I work 16 hours a day on my Vietnam book, I'm constantly astounded
about how far the public view of the Vietnam war is from reality.
This is an example of long-term historical censorship by the antiwar
leftist Boomers.

The mainstream view of the Vietnam War, as defined by the antiwar
left, is that South Vietnam never really existed as a coherent
government, that the people in southern Vietnam really wanted to be
governed by the North Vietnamese Communists and were only prevented
from doing so by the evil policies of the evil presidents Kennedy,
Johnson and Nixon. Furthermore, the mainstream view is that once the
Americans withdrew in 1975, then North and South Vietnam were joined
together in a reunion and lived happily ever after.

I particularly remember from watching the news in 1975 that when the
massive genocides began, the mainstream media never reported on them.
At the time of the horrific North Vietnam genocides in South Vietnam
and the horrific killing fields genocides in Cambodia, I recall that
there were only vague mentions of them, and news shows were quoting
Jane Fonda and William Kunstler who took the position that "we will
never criticize the actions of a Communist goverment," the implication
being that everything that Communism did was good, even genocides,
while everything that America did was evil. You have to search hard
to find any information of these and other genocides, since they've
been mostly censored and suppressed.

[Xeraphim1]

The polling situation is bizarre. The mainstream media polls are all
showing that Biden is ahead nationally, as well in the important
individual states, and so a Biden victory is almost certain.

Some of these polls show Trump very far behind. Trump himself is
calling these "suppression polls," saying that they're fake polls with
the purpose of discouraging Trump supporters from voting. However, it
seems to me that they would also discourage Biden supporters from
voting.

The Fox News poll also predicts a Biden victory. But some of the
analysts appearing on Fox News are saying that the mainstream polls
are fake, that they're over-counting Democrats, and that they're not
counting the "shy Trump voters," people who are afraid to say that
they're voting for Trump.

The principal pollster predicting a Trump victory is the Trafalgar
Group.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

They claim to be the only pollsters who correctly predicted that Trump
would win in 2016, and that the mainstream pollsters are making the
same mistakes in their models as in 2016. I saw the head of the
Trafalgar Group on Fox News yesterday, and he actually laughed at the
mainstream polls and mocked them, and said that Trump is going to win.

I have no idea which side to believe, and with the mail-in ballot
chaos, we may not know for a few days or weeks, as each side is
sending armies of lawyers into each state, ready to argue over which
mail-in ballots are valid, and which are to be thrown out.

Rasmussen is the other poll that looks to be accurate. Most are push polls and oversample Democrats. As an example, look at the poll results and then where Biden has been campaigning the past week. Based on polls there is no way he would waste time there. Of course the campaigns have their own internal polls and thus a better idea of how the race is really running. The people I've listened to have made the following points: 1. If Biden takes Florida he wins. 2. If Trump takes Pennsylvania he most likely will win. It's going to rest on narrow results again but it isn't a 10% change for Trump like 538 says.

[John]

** 03-Nov-2020 World View: North Vietnamese Communist genocide of South Vietnam

> Your problem is that you think that the Vietnam War ended in
> 1975. That was just a prelude to the real war, which ran from
> 1975-1985.

> It was over for the US. After that, the people overcame the
> elites as one would expect. The old thinking was dominated by
> xenophobia, tribalism and genocide, so the result wasn't pretty.
> That many are still obsessed with that way of going about things
> is a problem.

My heart sank when I read this, because I know exactly what you're
saying. You're saying what everyone on the left says -- that the
North Vietnam Communist genocide of the South Vietnam "élites" was
perfectly ok because genocide is perfectly ok to establish a socialist
paradise.

I'm really so sick of hearing this kind of garbage in support of
violence, ethnic cleansing and genocide. It's the same way that the
Nazis justified killing the Jews or how Democrats today justify the
antifa-blm fascists burning down cities. It's become very depressing
to me.

I'm not sure what "élites" you're talking about in South Vietnam,
since they were already dead from the invasion of Saigon. The massive
genocide by the North Vietnamese Communists was conducted against
ordinary people, even people who had been sympathetic to the Communist
cause, and especially small landowners who were trying to use their
small farms to support their families, and were thrown off their land
by the Communists murderers.

Prior to America's betrayal of the South Vietnam democracy, led by the
antiwar leftists, the South Vietnamese people had been looking forward
to a bright future, provided that the Communist invasion could be
defeated. They hoped to enjoy prosperity and democracy similar to
what developed in Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. Instead, under
the Communists, ordinary people were beaten, tortured, raped or killed
by the socialist blessing. Hundreds of thousands of "Vietnamese Boat
People" fled Vietnam in rickety boats, flooding Malaysia, Hong Kong,
and Indonesia, and eventually the US and Canada.

North Vietnam sent administrators to Saigon to establish a new regime.
Officials in the defeated government were killed, and hundreds of
thousands of people were sent to concentration camps, ostensibly to
re-educate them to live in a socialist society. A system of
registering the population was instituted to ensure that those whose
families had supported the Second Republic were penalized by denial of
employment, education, and food rations. An ambitious plan for
economic development was initiated, but within three years the country
was facing political, economic, and diplomatic failures. This was
just as disastrous as China's Great Leap Forward. These failures
became parts of a crisis that led to a new war.

So it's not surprising to me that you consider all of that to be
ok, because anything is ok to produce a wonderful socialist paradise.

You've also confirmed my original point: That all of the above history
of the North Vietnam Communist genocide has been censored and
suppressed by the antiwar left and the mainstream media and mainstream
leftist historians. It's the same as today, where the mainstream
media and the Democrats are suppressing news of the antifa-blm fascist
violence and news of Biden's criminality. You can find all of the
above information online, but you have to search hard for it.

Latest news: Maxine Waters says she will never ever forgive black men
who vote for Trump. Lol! What a jackass she is.

[John]

** 03-Nov-2020 World View: Genocide

> You've also confirmed my original point: That all of the above
> history of the North Vietnam Communist genocide has been censored
> and suppressed by the antiwar left and the mainstream media and
> mainstream leftist historians.

> Well, I am aware of the genocide, and learned above it from the
> mainstream media. It sort of confirms my point that you do not
> understand but often misrepresent the opposition. The
> disappointment is that some are still obsessed with the old way of
> thinking, including yourself.

So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's
perfectly ok anyway. I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of
thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape
and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the
modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the
service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship. You certainly are
very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's
Democratic Party.

Sorry to be so old-fashioned.

> It's the same as today, where the mainstream media and the
> Democrats are suppressing news of the antifa-blm fascist violence
> and news of Biden's criminality. You can find all of the above
> information online, but you have to search hard for it.

> My guess is that the reporting on violence and the Biden
> criminality were attempts at October surprises by ideological
> sources. They were not considered significant enough to cover by
> the main stream press. Again, this is your problem with
> understanding motivation and ideological prejudice. You wanted to
> believe this garbage and to convince Earth 1. I was going to wait
> a few months to see if anything real developed on it and call your
> false prophecies on it after a reasonable time. I figure it was
> invented to sway the election and will disappear when it is over.
> Likely optimistic. Some will never learn. To verify, check a
> mirror.

It's ridiculous to say that the mainstream media and twitter have the
right to censor news of Biden's criminality or cities burning down
just because it's October. That's important news in any month, and
you would never say the same about news that favored Biden.

You think it's perfectly OK to censor news that favors Trump. You
think it's perfectly OK for the North Vietnamese Communists to commit
genocide because of some ill-defined "élites".

You have absolutely no morals and no ethics. And the rest of your
post is completely full of crap, like most of your stuff.

[John]

** 04-Nov-2020 World View: Election

The vote counting has not yet determined who will be president, but
the Congress will be pretty much unchanged, which means that policies
will remain pretty much the same no matter who is president, which is
what I expect from a Generational Dynamics analysis, as I've said
recently and several times in the past.

The election appears to be a repudiation of Donald Trump's tweets,
which many people find offensive, and is a complete repudiation of the
loony left socialist agenda, which scared many people to death.

If Biden wins, the only major change will be in the rhetoric coming
out of Washington. But the policies will be largely the same,
changing only on the margins.

At least three issues remain from the campaign:

First, the antifa-blm fascists will not be satisfied with the
inconclusive results, and they'll almost certainly regroup and resume.

Second, the evidence of criminal behavior by the Biden family has
become enormous in the last month, and there's an official FBI
investigation, and Lindsey Graham will continue the investigation in
the Senate. If Biden becomes president, he will have to face a major
criminal scandal from day one of his presidency.

Third, there are serious concerns about Biden's competency, given that
he has exhibited signs of dementia. These concerns will continue if
he has to govern.

There are two major Generational Dynamics predictions that are unchanged.

First, the size of the global debt bubble continues to grow uncontrollably.
We don't know when that bubble will burst, but we can say for certain
that it will burst when everyone least expects it, and cause a massive
international financial crisis.

"If something can't go on forever, then it won't."

Second, the Chinese Communists continue to become increasingly
nationalistic and belligerent in several places -- on the border with
India, in the South China Sea, against Taiwan, against Japan, against
Russia's Far East, and elsewhere. At some point, someone will do
something stupid and that will lead to a major war. We don't know
when that will happen, but we can say for certain that a conflict will
break out when everyone least expects it, and cause a major war.

One interesting issue is that China, Iran, and other countries are
holding off on various actions pending the results of the American
election. It will be interesting to see what happens when the
election is finally decided.

[Trevor]

I know how paranoid I'm likely to sound but I think Biden and the Democrats will charge forward with a far-left agenda regardless, protected by big tech and the media. At this point, he's likely to squeak in, but they were expecting a historic landslide. (Clearly, they didn't learn from 2016)

If China attacks Taiwan, I seriously doubt we'll do anything besides a lot of bluster and symbolic sanctions. Especially if they offer a deal like: "Stay out of this and we'll forgive all the debt you owe us." Many would consider it tempting, since nobody's in the mood for overseas adventures now. Trump campaigned on getting us out of war.

We've crossed a dangerous line: division is one thing but now many will declare their opponent illegitimate if they're defeated. This is going to be 2000 on steroids.

[Guest]

Do you think there is any substance behind Trump's legal challenges? Is it a case of a sore loser or will there be a Bush-esque outcome?

I'm not a fan of postal votes as they are open to abuse. It will be interesting to see if the decisions taken by state officials to expand voting opportunities for this election have created genuine flaws in the system which have been exploited.

[John]

** 04-Nov-2020 World View: Lawsuits

> Do you think there is any substance behind Trump's legal
> challenges? Is it a case of a sore loser or will there be a
> Bush-esque outcome?

> I'm not a fan of postal votes as they are open to abuse. It will
> be interesting to see if the decisions taken by state officials to
> expand voting opportunities for this election have created genuine
> flaws in the system which have been exploited.

This afternoon, Biden gave a speech saying that he would not declare
victory, but that he would soon have enough electoral votes to declare
victory. That seems to be true.

The Trump campaign is launching about 20 lawsuits to challenge the
results. One of them is in Wisconsin, which the Washington Post
pollsters said that Trump would lose by 17 points. It turns out that
Trump is behind by a mere half a point. The Washington Post, directed
by the Democratic Party, has been publishing false news for months,
whether about the Mueller investigation, the Ukraine impeachment, the
multi-city riots, or the Biden criminality investigation, and now it's
obvious that it has been publishing phony poll results. So it's quite
reasonable to believe that, under the direction of the Democratic
Party, Wisconsin has been manufacturing phony ballots favoring Biden.
At least, that's what the Trump administration thinks.

So this is going to get very ugly and could last a long time. The
only good thing that can be said about this massive change to allow
random mail-in ballots is that by the time of the 2022 election, the
kinks might be worked out, and the rules will be defined.