This morphs into another post about math.Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:43 pm Speaking of rethinking, we seem to be moving up the S curve of collapse recognition.
Got a call from a friend a couple days ago. He was on some land, started describing it to me. He found a guy who wants to sell this property that has been in the family for 60 years and it's by word of mouth because they are particular about who will be nearby. Spring fed pond stocked with fish. Bordered on 3 sides by land owned by a timber company. The activity of the timber company drives the deer onto the property. He said I can keep us supplied with meat and you can do whatever in return. I said, well, the system should collapse within 10 years. He said no more than 3. This is the same guy that a year ago I was explaining what a pandemic would do to the economy and he had a far away look in his eyes and seemed puzzled by what I was talking about. At the time, he was talking about why property in cities would go up. I said it won't under certain conditions like large numbers of deaths from a pandemic. He said how about you come out next week and meet me at the property. I said sure.
I looked at the property yesterday and when I got done I told my friend that it is worth $160k to $200K, nowhere near what the seller is asking. He told me that I was way too low, that the property is worth at least 220K. He said the 25 dry acres is worth $4K per acre and the rest (55 acres) is worth 1.2K to 1.5K per acre. Nobody had a calculator. I said, well, you're saying the first piece is worth $100K and the second piece is worth about $80K, so that's right near the midpoint of my estimate.
