Generational Dynamics World View News

[Cool Breeze]

Also, as I just noted, it's quite funny or amusing that the financial posts on the forum about a recession coming are almost 5 years ago.

AI predictions are in a way doomsday predictions too, that seem to always be off by decades if not laughable entirely.

I think these show the tenuous nature of the human psyche regarding optimism, pessimism, irrationality, and magical thinking.

I wonder if the Japanese have had similar chicken littles all the while, during their stupid QE experiments that have surely caused problems (mostly just the guarantee of future but slow degradation), but haven't led to major crises for over 30 years now.

[John]

Where is it? I don't see it.

it's on top.

[John]

** 28-Dec-2020 World View: International hostility to China rises sharply

For years, I've been describing how the level of xenophobia in many
countries toward other countries has been increasing. This is a
standard phenomenon during generational Crisis eras. It leads to the
setting and crossing of red lines, and from there to a small military
clash, and from there in a full-scale generational crisis war.

Historically, Americans have loved China, and we even saved China from
the Japanese in WW II. Americans continued to love and adore China
through the Mao Zedong years, even as his Great Leap Forward and
Cultural Revolution resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of
innocent Chinese, and the beating, torture and jailing of probably
millions more.

Things began to change in 1989 with the Tiananmen Square massacre and
collapse of the Soviet Union. These two events evoked total panic and
paranoia in the Chinese Communist Party, and put the Chinese
Communists on the road to open hostility toward the West, and also
toward hostility towards its own people, as it began to openly
criticize and punish the "five poisons": Tibetans, Uighur Muslims,
democracy activists, Taiwanese, and Falun Gong practitioners.

The CCP xenophobia has increased even more sharply since 2011, when Xi
Jinping came to power and became a dictator. He's repeatedly made it
clear how contemptuous he is of the west, whether in Hong Kong, the
South China Sea, threats against Taiwan, or the enslavement of
millions of Uighurs. In my opinion, the worst example of this was the
National Intelligence Law in 2017, which required all Chinese
businesses and individuals to spy on the West, even when such spying
is illegal.

The international reaction has been an increase of xenophobia toward
China. Pew Research recently showed how unfavorable views of China
have been increasing in many countries in the last 20 years:

• Increasingly negative views of China across countries (Pew
  Research)

The change has been extremely dramatic in the last year, because of
China's actions in intentionally infecting hundreds of countries with
the Wuhan Coronavirus.

At the same time, there have been increasingly negatie views of Xi
Jinping in the last year:

• Negative views of Xi Jinping -- 2019 vs 2020 (Pew Research)

The research shows that older people see China more negatively than
younger people:

• Older people see China more negatively (Pew Research)

However, it isn't one-sided. A survey by the Diplomat found that
Chinese views of Americans have also become sharply more negative,
because of Trump's trade policies, Huawei bans, and criticisms of
China over the Uighurs, Hong Kong and the Wuhan Coronavirus.

So the negative feelings are mutual. In particular, Chinese and
Americans dislike each other to the same extent. 73% Americans hold
either “very unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” views of China. On
the Chinese side, the antipathy is even more widespread: 77% of the
Chinese hold such views of the United States.

These are historic trends in mutual xenophobia, leading to a world
war. Biden blames these trends on Donald Trump, and he implies that
he'll reverse them. Biden's change of policy is a chaotic event that
could either delay the path to war, or speed it up. There's no way to
predict.

--- Sources:

-- Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020 ... countries/
(PewResearch, 6-Oct-2020)

-- What Do Chinese People Think of Developed Countries?
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/what-do ... countries/
(Diplomat, 18-Dec-2020)

[Cool Breeze]

Where is it? I don't see it.

it's on top.

Ah yes, thanks. It's been separated. I hope that is quite fruitful for us, thanks John.

And by the way, nice post on China. I get into debates frequently right now about China and its attempts at controlling its people and currency, and quite a few otherwise savvy investor or financial types oddly think that people would adopt Yuan, things are going to keep getting better for China economically, etc. It's totally bizarre. A few youtube guys do this, but Jim Rogers is also a big name example. Who would want yuan I always ask? Does anyone like China? No, as evidence by common knowledge and supported by your charts there from Pew. Even a lot of Democrats know China is a major problem, they just enjoy lying about Russia to deflect from their scumbag leaders and marxist ideas.

If you had to pick 1, what sets off the Chinese beginning to start a war or provoke an oncoming one (such as invading Taiwan or messing with Japan)?

A global financial and economic crisis?
A fight with a neighbor (as you've said, India or Russia)?
Famine/plague and revolution ideas of their own people?

[Bob Butler]

Also, as I just noted, it's quite funny or amusing that the financial posts on the forum about a recession coming are almost 5 years ago.

AI predictions are in a way doomsday predictions too, that seem to always be off by decades if not laughable entirely.

I think these show the tenuous nature of the human psyche regarding optimism, pessimism, irrationality, and magical thinking.

From a blue perspective, I have come to expect a voodoo economics collapse about one and a half terms after the red come into power, for example "it's the economy stupid" and the Great Recession. For doomsday predictions, I watch the spiral of violence. Right now, with the cooler weather, it is way down. By the time the weather warms up again enough for protest and violence, the Georgia runoffs will be long past, Biden will be in power, the COVID holiday surge on a surge will have happened, Trump's legal problems would start to manifest and we might see if the stronghold Trump currently has on the Republican Party holds.

All of which suggests getting a copy of the book and following the easier advice might not hurt.

I would guess that if the other party is going into power, people would tend to panic. I sort of expect a honeymoon before a violent protest, and for voodoo to work for a while on the economic side.

[Tom Mazanec]

Secession is already happening but most are unware. Several blue states have already started to secede. They ignore Federal immigration policy and have set up sanctuary states. Next, red states are going to ignore any restrictions on the First and Second Amendments that the Biden regime impose.

Secession is starting slow but will very soon snowball. If tens or even hundreds of millions want to separate, it is not morally right to keep them from doing so. Is one half of the country going to forcibly keep the other half from separating? If so, massive blood will be spilled. Bosnia, here we come.

1861-1865.

[Tom Mazanec]

John, I just hope I have time to prepare myself.

[Bob Butler]

Historically, Americans have loved China, and we even saved China from the Japanese in WW II. Americans continued to love and adore China through the Mao Zedong years, even as his Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of innocent Chinese, and the beating, torture and jailing of probably millions more.

Nitpick. Truman refused to intervene when Mao won the Chinese Revolution on the grounds that he did not want to start a land war in Asia. If you were to intervene in such a populous environment, it would require a very full mobilization which people were unwilling to do after World War II. That triggered the Republican strong on defense position, projecting the Democrats as weak at containment. After World War II, the need for strong containment of autocratic expansion was a thing.

So I think the timing of the American love affair with China is a little off, but does not effect the note overall.

[Guest]

China Joe Biden will sink us and the rest of the West with his double dealing. I can't believe how stupid the liberals really are. The only cure for stupid is death. Unfortunately, the liberals will take decent people with them.

[DaKardii]

If you had to pick 1, what sets off the Chinese beginning to start a war or provoke an oncoming one (such as invading Taiwan or messing with Japan)?

A global financial and economic crisis?
A fight with a neighbor (as you've said, India or Russia)?
Famine/plague and revolution ideas of their own people?

I actually fear that it will be the US, not China, who ends up starting the war. Our own foreign policy elite has proven to be just as reckless as the CCP, if not more so.