Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

DaKardii wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:31 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:57 pm

Honestly, I think you're making a lot of faulty assumptions about what China could/would do. Your talk of borders is frankly kind of silly. The US does not share a border with Japan in any way and only tangentially with Russia. You also need to look at actual capabilities of China. It's navy is improving but is deficient in certain kinds of experience and equipment. It's army may be competent, but without a way to get to the fight it's useless and that's a navy job. It's air force has some good kit, but it lacks the range to attack many of its neighbors. That leaves missiles. If China starts shooting missiles left and right that's inviting retaliation and China has lots a **really** tasty targets.
There are two much shorter routes that China can take. It can either invade Alaska (2,200 miles away) using the Russian Far East as a springboard, or the Northern Mariana Islands/Guam (1,600 miles away) using Japan as a springboard. No need to go the long way across the Pacific.
You can't invade Alaska by land. It's still a seaborne invasion and there is a shortage of usable ports in Northeastern Russia. Shipping men and materiel to Russia to load on ships would be very inefficient; better to use Chinese ports with all the required facilities which are close to existing bases. More importantly, you need to have sufficient troop and cargo ships. Preferably they are amphibious because it gives you much more freedom as to where you'll disembark, but they are less space efficient and cost a lot more as well as requiring naval personal to man them. You also need regular naval screening elements to protect them. Due to the distance you'd need aircraft carriers of which China currently has two. Liaoning isn't worth much being capable of only STOBAR operations with limited range and payload. Shandong is a better ship but has the same limitations. Neither is aa match for US carrier aircraft let alone land based aircraft.

The Type 071 LPD is the only modern amphibious warfare transport that China has and there are only 8 total. That's a maximum of 6,400 troops. There are three LHDs fitting out or under trials, but that mostly brings helicopters.

The USAF has activated another F-35 squadron in Alaska to go along with the air defense squadrons already there. I don't think the Chinese navy wants to get into battle with them plus additional aircraft could be moved there easily.

Guam has Anderson, a really big base which hosts fighter and bomber aircraft on a regular basis. It's also a major naval base. No invasion is possible without taking them out which would require a major missile attack. That would prompt retaliatory US attacks on PLAN forces and bases sinking many of those ships you need to move troops.

Do some research and you'll see that opposed seaborne invasions are really hard to do especially against a modern state.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

But if America collapses in a civil war, then it would be easy for China (or Mexico) to defeat us.

Navigator
Posts: 1020
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I missed a day of being able to reply. Now look what happens.

Any of this "mob rule" stuff, from either side, is a bad thing. Hopefully, it is little more than the 5% on each extreme. But if not dealt with, this can get pretty extreme (ala Portland this summer).

What it does do is make America look like it is falling apart or is degenerating into civil war. It isn't. But CCP leaders or other might think that it is and become emboldened. I wrote about this in the book.

I also got asked by a major sponsor of the book if Biden being elected would mean no anti-election results rioting. I told him no, it would just mean rioting from the other extreme. And that is what happened.

America is not "falling apart" or "turning into Zimbabwe". This is all hyperbole. We are still the strongest, richest, and ablest country on the planet. No country has ever risen to the heights of the USA.

Yes, there are serious concerns, and the future will be incredibly tough, but it will take the actual suffering and damage of a World War to bring the USA to the brink.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7969
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Higgenbotham »

At day end, it's my habit to review the news of the day and then to see what the market thought of it. This could be posted in the Financial Topics section, but it's probably more relevant here. One thing I do is to look at the top 100 or so advancing issues and the top 100 or so declining issues. I'm looking for excesses in either direction and what I might put on the radar tomorrow. Typically, biotech stocks make up a substantial part of both lists, and I never trade biotech stocks. Today, I saw this:

SWBI Smith & Wesson Brands Inc 22.52 +3.50 +18.40%
RGR Sturm Ruger & Company 77.92 +8.38 +12.05%

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/perform ... e/advances

The market, particularly this kind of market, is prone to excesses and errors, and this might not be anything besides a blip. But I noted it and thought, hmmmm, interesting. I would not short either one of these stocks.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Navigator
Posts: 1020
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

The Nazi / CCP Plan in Parallel

Post by Navigator »

Here is some background on Hitler's annexation of "German" territory prior to WW2 and how this process will most likely be repeated by the CCP (given an administration unwilling to stand up to aggression at the first instance).

(note - I am skipping the march to re-occupy the Rhineland in 1936, as it was actual German territory, just occupied by the French to ensure payment of war reparations.)

March 1938 - Hitler annexes Austria. Most of world shrugs it off, as everyone in Austria speaks German, the majority of the population seems to have voted for it to happen, and no-one wants a war. Believe it or not, Hitler's main opposition to taking over Austria was Mussolini.

Aug/Sep 1938 - Hitler demands the ethnic Germans in the mountainous border regions of Czechoslovakia (the Sudetenland) also be allowed to become German. Negotiations with the big powers (Germany, Italy, France, Great Britain) end with agreement to hold elections in these areas and if the vote goes the German way, to have Czechoslovakia give up this territory to Germany. After all, no one wants a war. (The infamous Munich agreement)

October 1938 - The elections go the German's way and the Sudetenland is given to Germany. This mountainous area was a natural defense zone for Czechoslovakia, and its annexation by Germany leaves Czech defenses seriously compromised.

March 1939 - Hitler occupies the rest of Czech Republic (Bohemia and Moravia, the third part, Slovakia, becomes its own pro-German country) in direct contravention of the Munich agreement. At this point, Great Britain and France say "no more". [as a side note on what a good idea this was, about a THIRD of the tanks the Germans used to invade France were Czech models (Pz 35 and Pz 38) siezed by Germany when they took over Bohemia/Moravia]

August 1939 - Hitler threatens Poland for return of the "Polish Corridor" which separates East Prussia from the rest of Germany. At this point, France and Great Britain finally decide not to cave in, and war starts when the Germans invade Poland under the pretext of securing the "Polish Corridor".


So here is my guess on roughly how it will play out with the Chinese:

Chinese grab the Taiwan owned Quemoy island (Kinmey County on Google Maps) which is just a few miles off of the coast of the mainland city of Xiamen. Possibly they also grab the Taiwan owned islands of Wuqui Township as well. These areas are almost impossible for Taiwan to defend nowadays, though they were successful in the 1950s/60s (when the CCP was MUCH weaker). Biden protests to CCP about escalating tensions by doing this, but does nothing to intervene militarily. [kind of like Austria]

Emboldened by grabbing Quemoy with minimal repurcussions, the Chinese now move to take the Pescadore island (Penghu county on Google Maps). Biden has withdrawn the US Navy from the area in a bid to de-escalate "tensions" over the Quemoy thing. Taiwan puts up a fight, but they do not have the ability to reinforce the island, and it quickly falls to the CCP forces. Biden does not have the US get involved, as some small island is not "worth fighting over". [kind of like Sudetenland/Czechoslovakia]

Once the CCP has Penghu, which has a huge airport and massive natural harbor (it was the Japanese naval staging area for their WW2 invasion of the Philippines), they build up massive forces there.

At this point, Biden warns the CCP that they are not to actually invade Taiwan proper. Problem is that with Penghu, Taiwanese defenses are seriously compromised. Negotiations to "keep the peace" are held.

Biden feels forced to act once the CCP actually land on Taiwan, which they do once they have completed their build up on Penghu. [kind of like Poland]

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

So in other words, Biden's weakness--or treachery--means the Taiwanese will pay a high price in blood and suffering. Or maybe Biden will abandon Asia because his SJW and people of color base decide that fighting yellow people is racist. America is Zimbabwe. Or maybe a defeated Bosnia? Or perhaps the killing fields of Cambodia? The woman who died today was a patriot. God bless Donald Trump and God bless America.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

America is more like the new South Africa. After Biden grants citizenship to 30 million illegal Latino immigrants, it will be just like Mexico, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. You have been warned.

P.S. And yes, it is catastrophic.

Guest

Re: The Nazi / CCP Plan in Parallel

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:23 pm
So here is my guess on roughly how it will play out with the Chinese:

Chinese grab the Taiwan owned Quemoy island (Kinmey County on Google Maps) which is just a few miles off of the coast of the mainland city of Xiamen. Possibly they also grab the Taiwan owned islands of Wuqui Township as well. These areas are almost impossible for Taiwan to defend nowadays, though they were successful in the 1950s/60s (when the CCP was MUCH weaker). Biden protests to CCP about escalating tensions by doing this, but does nothing to intervene militarily. [kind of like Austria]

Emboldened by grabbing Quemoy with minimal repurcussions, the Chinese now move to take the Pescadore island (Penghu county on Google Maps). Biden has withdrawn the US Navy from the area in a bid to de-escalate "tensions" over the Quemoy thing. Taiwan puts up a fight, but they do not have the ability to reinforce the island, and it quickly falls to the CCP forces. Biden does not have the US get involved, as some small island is not "worth fighting over". [kind of like Sudetenland/Czechoslovakia]

Once the CCP has Penghu, which has a huge airport and massive natural harbor (it was the Japanese naval staging area for their WW2 invasion of the Philippines), they build up massive forces there.

At this point, Biden warns the CCP that they are not to actually invade Taiwan proper. Problem is that with Penghu, Taiwanese defenses are seriously compromised. Negotiations to "keep the peace" are held.

Biden feels forced to act once the CCP actually land on Taiwan, which they do once they have completed their build up on Penghu. [kind of like Poland]
My family lives in Taiwan. When do you think this will start to unfold? Many people tell me that when they move on Hong Kong, they will move on Taiwan a month later. Everyone agrees that the CCP will take the small islands off shore, and that wouldn't be too difficult, but taiwan will react immediately. I don't believe the government will wait to be attacked.

The CCP is moving on Hong Kong now.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

My family lives in Taiwan. When do you think this will start to unfold? Many people tell me that when they move on Hong Kong, they will move on Taiwan a month later. Everyone agrees that the CCP will take the small islands off shore, and that wouldn't be too difficult, but taiwan will react immediately. I don't believe the government will wait to be attacked.

The CCP is moving on Hong Kong now.
Now the bad news: Biden will fold like a cheap suit. Best you move to Vancouver, Canada right now with everyone else.

DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

It is debatable whether we would intervene on Taiwan's behalf even if Trump had won.

There are many people on the right who are so tired of war that they would oppose war with China unless they directly attacked us. There are even some on the right who support China on the grounds that the CCP (1) has nationalist tendencies; and (2) is a potential counterbalance to the adventurisms (real or imagined) of both the neoconservatives and the neoliberals.

Those voices would shout very loudly if Trump even considered intervening. Would he listen to them? Who knows?

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