Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Any organization or business reliant on 'any' cloud service, would be wise to rethink their reliance on virtualization on "clouds" and go back to being 'server' centric. If you value your freedom, you will begin immediately. Relying on a cloud that you do not own or control, as Parler just found out, can wipe out a billion dollar business, with the click of a mouse, simply for not obeying the tech demons. Talk about an insane vulnerability nobody ever dreamed possible. Well guess what?

[Guest]

WhatsApp and Facebook are now reaping the whirlwind. Twitter has taken a hit, but not as bad as the Zuckerberg.

[John]

** 18-Jan-2021 World View: Cloud services

> Any organization or business reliant on 'any' cloud service, would
> be wise to rethink their reliance on virtualization on "clouds"
> and go back to being 'server' centric. If you value your freedom,
> you will begin immediately. Relying on a cloud that you do not own
> or control, as Parler just found out, can wipe out a billion
> dollar business, with the click of a mouse, simply for not obeying
> the tech demons. Talk about an insane vulnerability nobody ever
> dreamed possible. Well guess what?

I agree. Amazon shut down Parler, a billion dollar business, overnight
for purely ideological reasons. There are many reasons why this was
an unbelievably stupid decision, and one of them is that anyone would
have to be crazy to commit to staying on Amazon's AWS platform.

If a company wants to use AWS for their systems, there are two ways to
do it. One way is to heavily integrate their core code with AWS APIs.
This makes the company totally dependent on the whims of the children
of Amazon.

The other way, and apparently this is how Parler did it, is to
implement a small layer between the core code and AWS, so that any
function in the core code that needs to access the cloud has to go
through this layer. That way, if the Amazon aholes decide to shut you
down, then you can go to a different cloud service, and just rewrite
the small layer.

Parler is now claiming that they've found another cloud provider,
and they'll be back online by the end of the month.

[John]

** 18-Jan-2021 World View: Sunni vs Shia

> John, you frequently say that in the upcoming world war, the
> situation in the Middle East will be Shia vs. Sunni and Arab
> vs. Jew.

> If the Shias and Sunnis will be fighting each other, that
> presumably means the fault lines will apply to the Arab
> countries. So, which ones are Israel's allies, and which are its
> enemies?

I always try to hedge this prediction. The following is fairly
standard paragraph of text that I've used in one form or another for
several years:

> "As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics
> predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world
> war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
> countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
> Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
> re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
> partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
> The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional
> war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various
> ethnic groups against each other."

In recent years, you can see how some of these alignments are working
out.

First, there will be a war between Israelis and Palestinians. That's
an ironclad guarantee.

Among the Shias, you have Iran, Afghanistan's Hazaras, Syria's
Alawites, Yemen's Houthis, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Shia groups
all appear to be monolithic, as far as I can tell. The exception is
that the Shias and Sunnis in Iraq are mostly united against Iran.

It's different with the Sunnis, who are badly splintered. The purpose
of organizations like the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League
was to keep the different Sunni or Arab aligned with each other.
However, there have been many problems. Syria was banished from the
Arab League for years because of Bashar al-Assad's genocide.

In June 2016, several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations with Qatar.
Amazingly enough, that blockade is still in place. The core of the
disagreement is apparently related to Arab tribal differences that go
back to World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, including
the Sauds vs the Wahhabis.

Then there's Turkey. Erdogan would like to revive the Ottoman Empire.
At the same time, he's taking money from the Chinese Communists in
return for ignoring the arrest, torture and enslaving millions of
ethnic Turkic Uighurs in China.

The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh has revived Turkey's historic hatred of the Armenians
who are, in turn, aligned with the Russians -- who have fought
multiple wars with Turkey in Crimea, and are now fighting Turkey in
Syria and Libya.

So, DaKardii, you seem to be someone who likes to connect the dots
historically. Maybe you can take the above list of alignments and
make something of it.

[Burner Prime]

Any organization or business reliant on 'any' cloud service, would be wise to rethink their reliance on virtualization on "clouds" and go back to being 'server' centric. If you value your freedom, you will begin immediately. Relying on a cloud that you do not own or control, as Parler just found out, can wipe out a billion dollar business, with the click of a mouse, simply for not obeying the tech demons. Talk about an insane vulnerability nobody ever dreamed possible. Well guess what?

You are 100% right, any web application that has decided to exit colo's and move entirely to AWS is extremely vulnerable and their $million or $billion business shut down with a mouse click. Prior to the tech purge though, smart people observed that dependency on AWS is a point of failure. Even firms heavily laden with woke Trump haters realized that AWS won't always be the biggest game in town, Azure was there from the start and others are coming into the space, though I would steer clear of Google Cloud, who is probably of the same mind as AWS.

Going back to server farms has been a serious topic of conversation.

[Burner Prime]

** 16-Jan-2021 World View: Collapsing

Can you provide two or three historical examples of "collapses" so
I'll know what you're talking about?

There are many ways you can look at it. All of them are possible. All of them point to the end of a way of life.
...

However, the collapse of America means the end of the welfare state which means the physical death of much of the Democratic electorate (welfare in all its forms). Yes, many in the center and right will die, but these people generally pay into the system and don't need it to survive. Many of the left (if not most) depend on the system for life support. They all claim to be "amazing and talented" but in reality that are unskilled and delusional. I see it all around me. Sometimes collapse is better.
...

"Orwell was an optimist." I don't know who said that first, but I have to agree.

Ayn Rand may have predicted some of how the collapse will happen: those who can will "go Galt". But the left isn't stupid, they know people with money will try to flee, so they'll impose "exit taxes" that can go on for decades. It's already being proposed in California:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgle ... 311c042674

The movement is already underway for people on the right to quietly close connections and dependencies on the current system. That means reducing dependencies on the banking system, commerce, tech, food, shelter, even the nation. Many say now is not the time to make noise and draw attention, but to quietly disconnect, and move everything beyond their reach.

The left will support their giveaway machine by taxing anyone they deem "wealthy", which could be totally arbitrary and will include more of the middle class as funds run dry. Low/no income people will get their UBI or other free stuff but won't be taxed. The mob will vote for it. Remember that scene in Gone With the Wind, "you're gonna vote like your friends do..."? The 10's of millions of immigrants will vote for people who promise the free stuff, make the rich "pay their fair share". Just who is "rich" by the way? It'll be anyone with more money than a destitute, and probably YOU TOO.

https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d77b4f ... d581aa9860

It'll be like Venezuela where a bus driver (sorry how about a bartender instead?) will gain power, seize other people's money, seize guns, print up any other money needed and buy the loyalty of the remaining dependents. They gonna make as many as possible dependent on the state. But eventually they'll run out of other people's money.

Then end will probably look like Brazil, where mixed-Euro or Asian-raced people run the show (Fujimori in Peru, Indians in Fiji), while indigenous live poorly but do all the work. It won't be a total Mad Max collapse, but portions of the US may fall under control of other countries, especially the South.

Definitely an end of a way of life we have taken for granted.

[DaKardii]

** 18-Jan-2021 World View: Sunni vs Shia

> John, you frequently say that in the upcoming world war, the
> situation in the Middle East will be Shia vs. Sunni and Arab
> vs. Jew.

> If the Shias and Sunnis will be fighting each other, that
> presumably means the fault lines will apply to the Arab
> countries. So, which ones are Israel's allies, and which are its
> enemies?

I always try to hedge this prediction. The following is fairly
standard paragraph of text that I've used in one form or another for
several years:

> "As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics
> predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world
> war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
> countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
> Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
> re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
> partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
> The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional
> war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various
> ethnic groups against each other."

In recent years, you can see how some of these alignments are working
out.

First, there will be a war between Israelis and Palestinians. That's
an ironclad guarantee.

Among the Shias, you have Iran, Afghanistan's Hazaras, Syria's
Alawites, Yemen's Houthis, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Shia groups
all appear to be monolithic, as far as I can tell. The exception is
that the Shias and Sunnis in Iraq are mostly united against Iran.

It's different with the Sunnis, who are badly splintered. The purpose
of organizations like the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League
was to keep the different Sunni or Arab aligned with each other.
However, there have been many problems. Syria was banished from the
Arab League for years because of Bashar al-Assad's genocide.

In June 2016, several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations with Qatar.
Amazingly enough, that blockade is still in place. The core of the
disagreement is apparently related to Arab tribal differences that go
back to World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, including
the Sauds vs the Wahhabis.

Then there's Turkey. Erdogan would like to revive the Ottoman Empire.
At the same time, he's taking money from the Chinese Communists in
return for ignoring the arrest, torture and enslaving millions of
ethnic Turkic Uighurs in China.

The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh has revived Turkey's historic hatred of the Armenians
who are, in turn, aligned with the Russians -- who have fought
multiple wars with Turkey in Crimea, and are now fighting Turkey in
Syria and Libya.

So, DaKardii, you seem to be someone who likes to connect the dots
historically. Maybe you can take the above list of alignments and
make something of it.

I personally believe that the Sunni countries will be divided between the US and China, while the Shia countries will initially side with China but later switch sides (just like Italy during WWII). The Sunni fault lines will be determined largely by the question of whether the cause is advanced by monarchs and non-ideological dictators, or by revolutionary regimes. The former faction will side with the US, the latter with China. Of course there will be exceptions to those general rules, especially in cases where a minority group is in charge (examples: Bahrain; Syria; etc.) or the country's foreign policy is defined by a certain friendship or certain conflict (examples: Shia Azerbaijan and Sunni Turkey being close allies with each other and also being bitter enemies with Armenia; Sunni Afghans who ally with Shia Iran against the Taliban; etc.).

[JCP]

Definitely an end of a way of life we have taken for granted.

I have been saying exactly that since 2003. I knew everything was different after 1999. And now it is clear to at least half the country that America has falling into the abyss. It will be obvious to everyone with an IQ over 60 be the end of 2021 that we are not coming back.

The liberals have destroyed everything, stolen everything, ruined everything, and now there is nothing.

[DaKardii]

I have been saying exactly that since 2003. I knew everything was different after 1999. And now it is clear to at least half the country that America has falling into the abyss. It will be obvious to everyone with an IQ over 60 be the end of 2021 that we are not coming back.

Things are bad now, and will get worse. But the ultimate test is yet to come. When the next crisis war begins, how will we respond? We don't know yet because the vast majority of us haven't lived through a crisis war.

The people who came of age during the last crisis war are now between their late 70s and their mid 90s.
The people who fought in the last crisis war are now between their mid 90s and their mid 110s.
The people who dictated policy during the last crisis war are now all dead.

[Stevealger]

Just a quick question for John , you often speak about your computer skills. Why is your website so rudimentary?
Not trying to pick a fight just curious.