Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

** 28-Jan-2021 World View: Most likely scenario

> Between the women running the show and stooges like John Kerry, it
> will be interesting to see just how bold China gets.

> Burner, do you think they try something bold this year ... and I
> presume you predict Quid Pro Joe does nothing, right?

That isn't exactly the most likely scenario. It's true that the
Chinese are full of themselves may try something extremely dangerous.

But the more accurate scenario is that the Chinese will make the same
mistake that you're making -- believing that Biden will do nothing.
Depending on the particular action, the most likely scenario is that
the Chinese will be completely shocked because Biden will (be forced
to) respond, and that will begin an escalating staircase to war.

Right now, we are obligated (by treaty) to defend just three of China's neighbors: Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Contrary to popular belief we are NOT obligated to defend Taiwan, although previous Presidents have indeed expressed interest in doing so. We're also not obligated to defend Russia, the only country other than Japan that shares a border with both superpowers (keep in mind that if China took Siberia it would then have the ability to invade North America WITHOUT having to cross the South Pacific first).

[Taiwan Forever]

We could be at war with China any day now. The Taiwanese are not going to back down. My relatives are Taiwanese, and they are warriors.

i think I should also mention that the "Taiwanese", that is the island natives, generally don't hate Japan. The Taiwanese had a much better relationship with the Japanese than other Asians. The part of the population that escaped mainland China after 1949 generally hates Japan. The mainlanders also massacred a lot of native Taiwanese during the takeover of the island by Nationalist forces. Today the average Taiwenese is more than comfortable with the idea of joining forces with Japan to fight mainland China.

FREE HONG KONG!

Make Hong Kong British again!

[Burner Prime]

Between the women running the show and stooges like John Kerry, it will be interesting to see just how bold China gets.

Burner, do you think they try something bold this year... and I presume you predict Quid Pro Joe does nothing, right?

I think John's predictions mostly hold, that being China will try to retake Taiwan at some point, and they absolutely hate Japan and are seeking revenge. The Japanese are well aware of this. China's current tests are to see if they can get away with it sooner rather than later. There's no way I'd try to predict a timeline. I really can't tell how the Biden Admin will respond, though I don't dispute WWIII will begin if Taiwan is attacked. Also by law he'd have to defend Taiwan. On the advice of his team Biden may order forces to war, but I am not sure the full brunt of US might will come to bear right away. I think it will be more deliberative like Gulf War I, and the US trying to gauge support from allies. Biden will do what he's advised by his handlers and his nursemaid wife will promise him ice cream and pudding for being a good boy. I don't think any of them are afraid to send Americans to die as long as they're certain their power and luxuries aren't jeopardized by declaring full war on China. That will be their calculus. We have to always remember they have no morality, but only pretend to in order to claim just cause.

If China attacks US forces directly as part of their invasion plans, there won't be any deliberation, full-scale war will be declared. I don't think China is ready for that, instead is trying other options. Their incursions into Taiwan ADIZ is to test US resolve, not Taiwan's. What's fascinating is the path the planes flew, showing they don't want to accidentally trigger deadly response from responding fighters or SAMs.

And as I maintain, domestic support will be tepid with lots of virtue signaling, but little to no sacrifice. Few will resign themselves to the fate of death to support a free Taiwan. Many will put their face on TV for "making a difference[TM]" and "being in this together[TM]", collecting tin cans for the war effort, but shying away from the recruiting station.

I'm also thinking China may decide that her objectives can be achieved without even going to war, just by using a salami-slicing strategy, slowly & unceasingly expanding, buying land, building, sending her population all over the world...Periodically checking the amount of resistance they encounter. But that assumes rationale, and John always points out they like to choose the stupidest, most self-destructive path over anything else.

[John]

** 28-Jan-2021 World View: War over Taiwan

> Right now, we are obligated (by treaty) to defend just three of
> China's neighbors: Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.

> Contrary to popular belief we are NOT obligated to defend Taiwan,
> although previous Presidents have indeed expressed interest in
> doing so. We're also not obligated to defend Russia, the only
> country other than Japan that shares a border with both
> superpowers (keep in mind that if China took Siberia it would then
> have the ability to invade North America WITHOUT having to cross
> the South Pacific first).

I only became aware yesterday, from a news story, that Carter had canceled
the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979.

But that doesn't change my view that it would be a disaster for
America to simply stand and watch and do nothing as China invades
Taiwan. Taiwan is a close ally, and other allies would assume that if
America refuses to defend Taiwan, then America will refuse to defend
its other allies, irrespective of whether they have mutual defense
treaties.

[Guest]

** 28-Jan-2021 World View: War over Taiwan

> Right now, we are obligated (by treaty) to defend just three of
> China's neighbors: Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.

> Contrary to popular belief we are NOT obligated to defend Taiwan,
> although previous Presidents have indeed expressed interest in
> doing so. We're also not obligated to defend Russia, the only
> country other than Japan that shares a border with both
> superpowers (keep in mind that if China took Siberia it would then
> have the ability to invade North America WITHOUT having to cross
> the South Pacific first).

I only became aware yesterday, from a news story, that Carter had canceled
the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979.

But that doesn't change my view that it would be a disaster for
America to simply stand and watch and do nothing as China invades
Taiwan. Taiwan is a close ally, and other allies would assume that if
America refuses to defend Taiwan, then America will refuse to defend
its other allies, irrespective of whether they have mutual defense
treaties.

Jimmy Carter is an idiot.

[Burner Prime]

We could be at war with China any day now. The Taiwanese are not going to back down. My relatives are Taiwanese, and they are warriors.

i think I should also mention that the "Taiwanese", that is the island natives, generally don't hate Japan. The Taiwanese had a much better relationship with the Japanese than other Asians. The part of the population that escaped mainland China after 1949 generally hates Japan. The mainlanders also massacred a lot of native Taiwanese during the takeover of the island by Nationalist forces. Today the average Taiwenese is more than comfortable with the idea of joining forces with Japan to fight mainland China.

FREE HONG KONG!

Make Hong Kong British again!

This is true the Taiwanese and Japanese generally like each other.

[DaKardii]

I only became aware yesterday, from a news story, that Carter had canceled
the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979.

But that doesn't change my view that it would be a disaster for
America to simply stand and watch and do nothing as China invades
Taiwan. Taiwan is a close ally, and other allies would assume that if
America refuses to defend Taiwan, then America will refuse to defend
its other allies, irrespective of whether they have mutual defense
treaties.

And I only became aware today that we ever had a mutual defense treaty to begin with.

This makes Taiwan one of only eight countries to be former mutual defense partners of the US. The other seven are Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, Pakistan, and Thailand. Venezuela may be considered an additional former mutual defense partner depending on who you recognize as the legitimate government.

[Cool Breeze]

** 28-Jan-2021 World View: Most likely scenario

> Between the women running the show and stooges like John Kerry, it
> will be interesting to see just how bold China gets.

> Burner, do you think they try something bold this year ... and I
> presume you predict Quid Pro Joe does nothing, right?

That isn't exactly the most likely scenario. It's true that the
Chinese are full of themselves may try something extremely dangerous.

But the more accurate scenario is that the Chinese will make the same
mistake that you're making -- believing that Biden will do nothing.
Depending on the particular action, the most likely scenario is that
the Chinese will be completely shocked because Biden will (be forced
to) respond, and that will begin an escalating staircase to war.

I didn't make a mistake, I presumed from BP's post that he suggests that Biden will do nothing.

Now I know your take.

I'm not sure what they will do or what we will do, because I don't have a religious belief in them doing something deterministically, so it's not easy to say.

[DaKardii]

To clarify my earlier posts:

1) The following countries border both China and the US itself: Japan and Russia.

2) The following countries border both China and a US treaty ally: Japan, Malaysia, North Korea, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

3) The following US treaty allies border China directly: Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.

[Cool Breeze]

** 28-Jan-2021 World View: John Kerry

> Between the women running the show and stooges like John Kerry, it
> will be interesting to see just how bold China gets.

> Burner, do you think they try something bold this year ... and I
> presume you predict Quid Pro Joe does nothing, right?

> John Kerry flies around the world in his wife's family jet. How
> concerned is he really about climate change? Just like little
> Greta long stockings with her disposable plastic cups and plastic
> bags littering the interior of her Tesla... (Insert vomitting
> smile face here).

For a while in the 80s I was dating a girl who had met John Kerry at a
singles dance in the early 70s. This was presumably the time when
Kerry the buffoon was going around trashing America's soldiers as
worse than jihadist terrorists.

Anyway she told me that Kerry asked her to dance, and asked her a few
questions about what she did for a living and how much money she had.
When it turned out that she didn't have much money, he dumped her
immediately and went off and asked someone else to dance. She didn't
know who won Kerry's lottery that night.

By the way, the girl that I was dating was the same one that had the
dog named Bowser that I mentioned a few days ago, and that's the name
of the mayor of DC. Spooky, huh?

Guy Smiley, an inverted gold digger ... what a pussy.