Financial topics

[aeden]

"...this is a red pill moment for many, and it's beautiful."
sentiment trader

... also for the thinking one billion battery's using ocean floor cleaners on the ocean floor for
materials...

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/joc.6674
... we already posted local margin clusters supply underway...
... we will be lucky and posted hard facts on who missed what as even having a menu....

MMT is intellectual suicide from our view posted early from the NZ issue.

[Higgenbotham]

The best short term trading opportunity I found this week was based on this piece of news. When the news broke, private prison stocks went down substantially, then reversed those losses and closed the week for a gain.

Biden Signs Executive Order to Phase Out Federal Use of Private Prisons

President aims to advance racial equity with a series of actions; ‘we must change’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-s ... 1611682272

Here's a weekly chart of one of the private prison stocks:



I had this stock on my list waiting for this type of news to break. Once it did, I began scaling into the stock, then scaled out as it began to rise. I was out by the end of the day Tuesday. I have no idea how high a stock will go in these situations, only that there is likely to be a bottom near term, then a likely reversal above my average buy point.

As the stock dropped into the temporary low, I was thinking the following:

The private prisons probably have contracts with the federal government for several more years.
The private prisons can have contracts with states or other entities besides the federal government.
The private prisons' assets can be used for other purposes than housing prisoners. Like housing dissidents.
The private prison stocks are exceptionally cheap.
Hunter Biden was probably loading up on this stock as it dropped.

I don't actually know how much of this is accurate, as there is not enough time to investigate any of this thoroughly before making a decision, as I'm scanning hundreds of stocks.

[Higgenbotham]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... est_short/

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddi ... eze-silver

If Wall Street Bets can bankrupt JP Morgan in a silver squeeze, that would be bigger than the 14th Century collapse of the Bardi and Peruzzi, in my estimation.

[FullMoon]

Thanks H. I need to know when physical silver will be a good trade for FRN's. Like we did in 2011. I panicked last year and sold a bunch after the bottom bounce. But I sold at cost, just to lighten up. It's a scary thing to hold. Heavy and cumbersome. A bit too manic of a market for my disposition. How to play it this time do you think?

[Higgenbotham]

Thanks H. I need to know when physical silver will be a good trade for FRN's. Like we did in 2011. I panicked last year and sold a bunch after the bottom bounce. But I sold at cost, just to lighten up. It's a scary thing to hold. Heavy and cumbersome. A bit too manic of a market for my disposition. How to play it this time do you think?

When I posted those links, what came into my mind was that I don't know much about silver right now. For example, a couple years ago, I knew that the commercials were net long in an unprecedented way and that seemed good for at least a bounce. I have no idea whether JP Morgan really is short silver at this time or about how much or what kind of prices would be required to get them into trouble in a squeeze. My thoughts right now are more along the lines of how it will affect other markets if silver were to gap up and maybe exceed the recent high around $30. If the Reddit guys are successful in squeezing it to several hundred dollars per ounce, that will be a different scenario than the one I am thinking about now. Personally, if they can do that, I think that will be the big one - I think the system is very vulnerable to that scenario, and if it happens it would seem the Fed will not be able to stop a systemic collapse. After that, I don't know.

Most of what you have been saying in general seems right to me. I think we're beyond the point where financial or monetary items are going to be of much use for very long after a collapse. I believe that point was passed around 2011.

[John]

** 31-Jan-2021 World View: Systemic collapse?

> When I posted those links, what came into my mind was that I don't
> know much about silver right now. For example, a couple years ago,
> I knew that the commercials were net long in an unprecedented way
> and that seemed good for at least a bounce. I have no idea whether
> JP Morgan really is short silver at this time or about how much or
> what kind of prices would be required to get them into trouble in
> a squeeze. My thoughts right now are more along the lines of how
> it will affect other markets if silver were to gap up and maybe
> exceed the recent high around $30. If the Reddit guys are
> successful in squeezing it to several hundred dollars per ounce,
> that will be a different scenario than the one I am thinking about
> now. Personally, if they can do that, I think that will be the big
> one - I think the system is very vulnerable to that scenario, and
> if it happens it would seem the Fed will not be able to stop a
> systemic collapse. After that, I don't know.

The Gamestop situation caught everyone by surprise, and so the
authorities did nothing to stop it. But the authorities can certainly
see the silver situation coming. What are they doing about it?

[Higgenbotham]

** 31-Jan-2021 World View: Systemic collapse?

> When I posted those links, what came into my mind was that I don't
> know much about silver right now. For example, a couple years ago,
> I knew that the commercials were net long in an unprecedented way
> and that seemed good for at least a bounce. I have no idea whether
> JP Morgan really is short silver at this time or about how much or
> what kind of prices would be required to get them into trouble in
> a squeeze. My thoughts right now are more along the lines of how
> it will affect other markets if silver were to gap up and maybe
> exceed the recent high around $30. If the Reddit guys are
> successful in squeezing it to several hundred dollars per ounce,
> that will be a different scenario than the one I am thinking about
> now. Personally, if they can do that, I think that will be the big
> one - I think the system is very vulnerable to that scenario, and
> if it happens it would seem the Fed will not be able to stop a
> systemic collapse. After that, I don't know.

The Gamestop situation caught everyone by surprise, and so the
authorities did nothing to stop it. But the authorities can certainly
see the silver situation coming. What are they doing about it?

Probably nothing at the moment.

But what they would do, and I think quickly, is what they did during the Hunt Brothers squeeze which I think, not coincidentally, is about what they did with Gamestop. First they will raise margins. Then they will circle the wagons to ensure that there are sufficient warehouse stocks to facilitate delivery for the next contract expiration in March. Then the exchanges will force the market into liquidation only mode like they did with Gamestop, but it will be across the board for all silver futures, not just some brokers. But if there's no physical silver available out there for industrial use, that will not work. The price will have to go high enough to bring the physical supplies out into the market.

I've probably forgotten some details about the Hunt Brothers squeeze and will need to review that. There's not nearly as much physical in people's attics as there was then.

[Higgenbotham]

Portnoy and others were indignant about the brokers putting Gamestop into liquidation only mode (probably on the advice or urging of the Biden Administration Treasury), but I think this just came out of their playbook from 1980. I'm almost positive it happened during the Hunt Brothers silver corner.

Federal commodities regulators introduced special rules to prevent any more long position contracts from being written or sold for silver futures. This stopped the Hunts from increasing their positions by temporarily suspending the fundamental rules of the commodities market. With longs frozen and shorts free to pile in, the price of silver began to slide. Margin calls on the loans began to take a toll on the Hunts' reserves to the point where they were paying millions a day in calls, storage fees and interest.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/o ... others.asp

"shorts free to pile in"? I don't know how you have more shorts without having an equal number of longs though. Maybe they put a cap on open interest. A better source than this is probably needed.

[Cool Breeze]

I don't appeal to credentials, I only mentioned Saylor as MIT because John was.

I have as high of credentials as anyone, but I don't need to post them.

I just wondered whether your gambling style there would match your investment gambling style.

The chance that any random individual was accepted to Caltech, Stanford, and Princeton for graduate school and has the evidence to back it up after nearly 40 years is really, really small.

Do you really believe that I was telling the truth and have the evidence to back it?

It doesn't matter to me, as I have as high of credentials as anyone, so it makes no difference to me. It's funny you think bitcoin is gambling, since it ... isn't.

You also said,

You, on the other hand, are playing the highest stakes game with the devil. It's an illusion that the financial elite are controlling affairs, as they are under the spell of demons.

I agree with your analysis of the financial elite, but I am not playing a high stakes game with the devil at all. You don't even know me very well, that's why you so often mischaracterize me, and also why you will not invest in something (BTC) far superior than any other [financial] device going.

[Cool Breeze]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... est_short/

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddi ... eze-silver

If Wall Street Bets can bankrupt JP Morgan in a silver squeeze, that would be bigger than the 14th Century collapse of the Bardi and Peruzzi, in my estimation.

This would be funny. It's the kind of thing that would amazingly, prove the conspiracy against precious metals by the big boys and governments. Not that we need more examples of proven conspiracies these days.