Financial topics

[aeden]

24 minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEWoPza ... e=emb_logo

Meanwhile we watched btc in our case since 1993 basically and intellectual consideration in 1996 to go digital.
Your possibilities have already been forwarded at MIT for some years now also provided.
Our initial discussion in was before you had arrived on the planet as in 1974 with Hayek
in competing currency's read.
The OTC federal case forwarded was in relationship to our contractual covenant relationship of equity.

You will see sooner than l8ter you will be fine with actual diversification efforts.

Hayek's Proposal of Introducing Competing Private Currencies
Friedrich A. von Hayek, 1937

[John]

** 17-Feb-2021 World View: Paper trails

> Who says they know you have it? Most people who opine on BTC in a
> critical way don't even know what possibilities are out there, or
> how hard it is for others (yes it is quasi-anonymous) to come
> after you. As if they have all the enforcers in the world to go
> after non billion dollar people deemed illegitimate. It's time to
> step up your game, you guys don't even know what mixing is,
> etc.

That makes it no different from cash. If someone pays you cash under
the table and you bury it in your basement so that the Feds don't know
about it, then they can't confiscate it. If they pay you in bitcoin,
it's the same.

The problem comes with paper trails. If someone pays you $25,000 in
bitcoin, then that transaction may appear in the financial statement
of the person paying you, and Feds can trace that payment back to you.

And here's a problem that you have with bitcoin but not with cash: If
you receive $25,000 in bitcoin, and you want to use that money in a
place that requires dollars, then you'll have to convert it, and that
transaction could be discovered by the Feds.

If you and all the people you transact with stay off the grid, and you
all transact only in bitcoin, then you can avoid being detected. But
if one person in your circle makes a mistake and the Feds find him,
then they can follow the paper trail to you --- same as cash.

[aeden]

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Stock+prices+ ... ave&ia=web
Genius dies penniless cared for by family.

Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes, thought they could see into the future and make a killing on the stock market -
and then both were wiped out by the Wall Street.

You think we do not understand your thought map?

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/ ... -Chart.pdf chart porn for the curious.

[aeden]

ytd
book 2 6.31%
NASDAQ Composite Index 8.99%
S&P 500 Index 4.70%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.99%

10% Stocks 90% Cash
btc may be a lion today and a red spot alone on the Serengeti.
No one really knows now do they.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-j ... everything

[Cool Breeze]

** 17-Feb-2021 World View: Paper trails

> Who says they know you have it? Most people who opine on BTC in a
> critical way don't even know what possibilities are out there, or
> how hard it is for others (yes it is quasi-anonymous) to come
> after you. As if they have all the enforcers in the world to go
> after non billion dollar people deemed illegitimate. It's time to
> step up your game, you guys don't even know what mixing is,
> etc.

That makes it no different from cash. If someone pays you cash under
the table and you bury it in your basement so that the Feds don't know
about it, then they can't confiscate it. If they pay you in bitcoin,
it's the same.

The problem comes with paper trails. If someone pays you $25,000 in
bitcoin, then that transaction may appear in the financial statement
of the person paying you, and Feds can trace that payment back to you.

And here's a problem that you have with bitcoin but not with cash: If
you receive $25,000 in bitcoin, and you want to use that money in a
place that requires dollars, then you'll have to convert it, and that
transaction could be discovered by the Feds.

If you and all the people you transact with stay off the grid, and you
all transact only in bitcoin, then you can avoid being detected. But
if one person in your circle makes a mistake and the Feds find him,
then they can follow the paper trail to you --- same as cash.

On ramping and (more frequently) off ramping are an issue, but our current system also penalizes citizens for exceedingly small sums of cash, so I hardly see the difference. And I can't take cash on an airplane with zero chance of getting caught (not so for BTC). That is very valuable if the country degrades. Or if I want to buy a place in a different jurisdiction.

[Cool Breeze]

ytd
book 2 6.31%
NASDAQ Composite Index 8.99%
S&P 500 Index 4.70%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.99%

10% Stocks 90% Cash
btc may be a lion today and a red spot alone on the Serengeti.
No one really knows now do they.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-j ... everything

For most people, BTC is the only way out. See Raoul Pal's recent twitter posts (wages have drastically decreased in real value whereas everything else important materially in life has skyrocketed). And the boomers won't die, so opportunity is not good, either --- AND they are looking into a debt barrel to keep boomers alive and on big time retirement packages, to boot.

I had predicted in 2018 that the next market turmoil would be in the first couple years of the next president's term (which I thought would be Trump at the time). Right now, I'd guess it happens in the next 15 months. And it'll be far more real than the silly covid panic and BS reaction.

If you had to predict, when will the next BIG drop in the markets occur, aeden? If I get to this summer even with my commodities stocks that have done quite well (like uranium), I'll be out of most of my positions and in cash. John will love that, since he is a deflationist.

[aeden]

btc is not the only way out. If it fits only one risk model they will not listen anyways.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=qZyTUsGP
Over night gaps increasing. Size did matter to remove the middle class as the wasting files
since operation 936.
Check your assumptions. We did on ours.

[richard5za]

** 17-Feb-2021 World View: Paper trails

> Who says they know you have it? Most people who opine on BTC in a
> critical way don't even know what possibilities are out there, or
> how hard it is for others (yes it is quasi-anonymous) to come
> after you. As if they have all the enforcers in the world to go
> after non billion dollar people deemed illegitimate. It's time to
> step up your game, you guys don't even know what mixing is,
> etc.

That makes it no different from cash. If someone pays you cash under
the table and you bury it in your basement so that the Feds don't know
about it, then they can't confiscate it. If they pay you in bitcoin,
it's the same.

The problem comes with paper trails. If someone pays you $25,000 in
bitcoin, then that transaction may appear in the financial statement
of the person paying you, and Feds can trace that payment back to you.

And here's a problem that you have with bitcoin but not with cash: If
you receive $25,000 in bitcoin, and you want to use that money in a
place that requires dollars, then you'll have to convert it, and that
transaction could be discovered by the Feds.

If you and all the people you transact with stay off the grid, and you
all transact only in bitcoin, then you can avoid being detected. But
if one person in your circle makes a mistake and the Feds find him,
then they can follow the paper trail to you --- same as cash.

Theres a lot of artificial intelligence work being done globally by tax and security authorities on the tracking of digital assets. Its essential not just for tax reasons but crime and terrorism. There are some very interesting articles on the subject if you google. I am not anti digital assets and believe they have a long term place in the financial world. How they are valued will change from the present as the tax, terrorist and crime attractions will be lost.
This also fits well with artificial intelligence developments on tax. Consider: tax is a huge amount of information applied to the specific circumstances of an individual tax payer resulting in a single answer (or a small number of options) In a world that is shades of grey, tax is surprisingly black/white and will be an early beneficiary for AI

[richard5za]

On a different subject, I wonder if the the market top has now been reached? AS I write S&P 500 below 3900

[Higgenbotham]

Economics

Fed Staff Suggest More Worry Over Financial Risk Than Powell

By Rich Miller

February 17, 2021, 7:31 PM CST Updated on February 18, 2021, 7:30 AM CST

Powell calls risks moderate, staff sees them as notable
Official insists Powell agrees with staff’s overall appraisal


Federal Reserve staff members gave a potentially more worrisome assessment of the risks to financial stability in the central bank’s policy meeting last month than the one presented publicly by Chair Jerome Powell.

Speaking to reporters on Jan. 27 after the Fed’s last policy making meeting, Powell called financial stability vulnerabilities overall “moderate.” Central bank staff gave a less sanguine assessment in their presentation at the January meeting, telling policy makers that vulnerabilities on balance were “notable,” according to the minutes of the gathering released on Wednesday.

Powell agrees with the staff’s overall assessment but was just speaking more generally to reporters than the granular approach taken by Fed economists in their presentation to the Federal Open Market Committee, according to a Fed official familiar with the matter.

As for household and business balance sheets, the Fed economists judged vulnerabilities on that front to be notable, “reflecting increased leverage and decreased incomes and revenues in 2020.” Big banks were seen to be in good shape.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... han-powell