FullMoon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:11 am
Money is a median of exchange And a store of value. Bitcoin excels at the latter only. Store of value goes to something stable, then exchanged briefly for expedient purposes. Anything else is gambling. But really, at this point it's all gambling isn't it? Getting ready for a good fireworks show at many levels. We live in interesting times.
No one is in charge of Bitcoin and so its a system designed not to change. It'll never cope as a global medium of exchange versus constantly improved competitors such as Visa. It simply won't be able to do the required number of transactions per second.
Secondly, it isn't anonymous as the minute its converted to a fiat currency such as US dollar, the dollars can be seen, and it's in dollars that its valued.
Its very attractive to criminals and terrorists, tax evasion and money laundering, and for these reasons alone expect the authorities to find ways to uncover identity of Bitcoin owners.
Massive speculation has created an enormous bubble. Getting money out of Bitcoin into US dollars has in some instances been taking a few days. At the moment pressure is putting money in. As soon as there's pressure to get money out and the few days becomes two, three, four weeks there'll be panic and I'm expecting a collapse.
The question then arises what is fair value? In the case of S&P 500 I estimate 1300 because of the underlying company value and historical P/E, and a fall to half fair value after a bubble would fit with market history. But what is fair value for Bitcoin? I just don't know!
