Financial topics

[aeden]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-s ... 43203.html
ai implosion smoldering

Many of the assets in the funds have insurance protection to make them more appealing for investors seeking alternatives to money markets, but a major insurer -- Japan’s Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. -- has since questioned the validity of the contracts with Greensill Capital.

[Higgenbotham]

We may be in the home stretch of the stock market bubble. I stopped short term trading today and have just started to think about going short.

In surveying the mood of participants this morning, it came to mind that recent stock market tops have been preceded by wild projections, the craziest I can recall being something like S&P 8800. I haven't seen anything like that yet. We may need to see that. I'm seeing preliminary signs of the long term permabulls getting more excited and active, but they are not in a frenzy as of yet.

The Russell 2000 made a new all time high today, which might argue for the stock market bubble continuing for a few months, as diverges are more typical than the various indices topping near the same time, with the Russell often topping first, as happened in 2007.

As an aside, that is consistent with the idea that stock market tops are chaotic events, as the stock market can be arbitrarily defined by various stocks or groupings of stocks that exhibit similar but not identical behavior. What is the stock market? Is it an index of every stock in the world? Would it include every stock on the pink sheets? Would it be equal weighted or market cap weighted? Where does such an index exist? For example, if it's true that stocks are affected by money flows, planetary or lunar phenomena, or any of several other variables, then where the companies are located and who investors in certain companies are may cause the times or dates of the highs to vary.

Oil could be the most important market to watch right now. The March 8 high near $68 on the April futures is holding. Oil topped about 6 weeks before the February 19, 2020 S&P top.

[vincecate]

Higgie,

A math problem for you. Imagine the Fed has $7 trillion in "dollars in circulation" on one side of the balance sheet and $7 trillion in 30 year bonds paying 2% on the other. So to start you can think that "the dollar is fully backed". Now imagine that inflation jumps up and interest rates on 30 year bonds adjust to 10%. What is the "Net Present Value" of that $7 trillion in backing after this change? What if interest rates get to 20%?

For the average person who uses software to do math, you can use:

https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/b ... tvalue.htm

Although online calculator can't handle trillions, so you can do billions and get the idea.

When the backing for a currency goes down, the value of the currency goes down. But if the current value goes down, the future value goes down more. But if you are using the future value to back the current value, then the current value will go down more.
The idea that you can back the dollar with the future value of the dollar only works if the value of the dollar is stable or increasing. If it is going down, you get a recursion and feedback loop and it can implode. We will soon conduct a real life demo for those that don't believe me.

Long ago wisdom against doing what the Fed is doing was called this the "Real Bills Doctrine". It was known that this was a bad idea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_bills_doctrine

In truth, there is no more backing for the dollar than Bitcoin, and they can't print trillions of Bitcoins.

[aeden]

I looked at sh for a snap shot only. Vix is choking in futures.
After this demshevik bloated corpse pops in the dcf sweeps as yep with Z sweeps also.
I concluded oil to 80 but we will see since they think greenwash logic is valid.
No clue. Early is wrong as we gauge this ratio of digi and metal cone of fear safety valve.
I will wait for the black crown of the black gold and carve a bottom with gold also.
I defer to your logic map but as we know the madness will last longer than many solvency
as the wasting notes in tiny bubbles problem gains demographic traction for now.
No clue wait for the black crown. Ag losses in Texas is over 600 million so far.
a>b>c>d is in play
We slowed short term fifty percent.

c is more of a factor as it sloshes assets as currency plays

As noted Cariboo will be in play for crude longs and later shorts as a black crown appears
on the head of the harlot.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/48/b3/24 ... ac754b.jpg

[aeden]

Video of illegals streaming across the Texas border, being nonchalantly assisted in by the border control...

https://leakedreality.com/video/3969/te ... -us-border
Texas this morning. Huge line of people waiting for smugglers to ferry them across.

Red head WH presstitute clown show is career over in days not months.
As noted the dog eaters and cartels now run the illegals folded that into the dope operations with
kiddie trigger pullers as throw away killers are the norm now.

These idiots want your guns as you are over run.

[Higgenbotham]

Higgie,

A math problem for you. Imagine the Fed has $7 trillion in "dollars in circulation" on one side of the balance sheet and $7 trillion in 30 year bonds paying 2% on the other. So to start you can think that "the dollar is fully backed". Now imagine that inflation jumps up and interest rates on 30 year bonds adjust to 10%. What is the "Net Present Value" of that $7 trillion in backing after this change? What if interest rates get to 20%?

For the average person who uses software to do math, you can use:

https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/b ... tvalue.htm

Although online calculator can't handle trillions, so you can do billions and get the idea.

When the backing for a currency goes down, the value of the currency goes down. But if the current value goes down, the future value goes down more. But if you are using the future value to back the current value, then the current value will go down more.
The idea that you can back the dollar with the future value of the dollar only works if the value of the dollar is stable or increasing. If it is going down, you get a recursion and feedback loop and it can implode. We will soon conduct a real life demo for those that don't believe me.

Long ago wisdom against doing what the Fed is doing was called this the "Real Bills Doctrine". It was known that this was a bad idea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_bills_doctrine

In truth, there is no more backing for the dollar than Bitcoin, and they can't print trillions of Bitcoins.

I think to answer that question it would be best to construct a simple model:

Perhaps there was a goldsmith in a territory who issued a paper currency called dorrals and the goldsmith had adequate gold on hand so that each dorral was backed by 1/100 ounce of gold. The front of each dorral indicated that the holder could redeem 100 dorrals for an ounce of gold at the goldsmith's location. The goldsmith then merged with a bank that was run by a strongman in the territory and the strongman said we have the power to force adjoining territories that have goods we need to accept dorrals for their goods and we can start putting a lot of taxes on the population within our territory. Therefore, don't worry about your dorrals; they don't need gold backing. Since this bank we own makes mortgage loans, we'll put the dorrals on the liability side of our balance sheet and our mortgage loans on the asset side to the extent that the face value of the mortgage loans is equal to the number of dorrals in circulation. As long as we can force adjoining territories to accept dorrals and as long as we can collect taxes from within the territory, your dorrals are safe. They are backed by all the goods in the territories that are forced to accept dorrals and the population within our territory that is forced to pay taxes in dorrals.

Since math is more my forte than constructing models, perhaps this model is lacking.

[aeden]

No that map was run in Austria until a competing currency wiped it out from the Von Mises memoirs.
They tried to kill Him at the front lines but he survived.
The current theta burn in the VIX points that to a few.
Bonhoeffer told of the bank runs as actual money was relocated starting in 1933. Same thing the Morgan dealt with
from the Sutton files also if noted correctly. The current mindset is as they print money is worth less
so they buy BTC. We watched to got from 1T to 786B now up again as specs. These Demsheviks are bat shit crazy.
The current burn rate of $2,496,000,000 dollars on illegals is mounting faster than their bat shit lunacy
as Capex and Opex reality's. The blue gets its gamed ass handed to as our bankruptcy and relocated banked while the mindless baby
killers they are.

Gresham's Law and yea above that also.

http://www.antonysutton.com/suttoninterview.html
You could explore the 10(?) volume works of Dewey...outrageous Hegelianism, the state is supreme, the individual merely a pawn to be trained. This is the basis of our 'educational system" ...or you could go and explore the members of S&B who brought the system to the US.

This trained "sausage mind" outlook has thoroughly permeated our universities…that's why we have the peer review system...we are all supposed to think alike and find the same answers. This political correctness garbage is another step to total thought control.

Millegan wrote about Antony Sutton in 1999: “Antony C. Sutton, 74, has been persecuted but never prosecuted for his research and subsequent publishing of his findings. His mainstream career was shattered by his devotion towards uncovering the truth. In 1968, his Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development was published by The Hoover Institute at Stanford University (see also my additional piece here). Sutton showed how the Soviet state’s technological and manufacturing base, which was then engaged in supplying the North Vietnamese the armaments and supplies to kill and wound American soldiers, was built by US firms and mostly paid for by the US taxpayers. From their largest steel and iron plant, to automobile manufacturing equipment, to precision ball-bearings and computers, basically the majority of the Soviet’s large industrial enterprises had been built with the United States help or technical assistance.”

Union Banking Corporation seized Executive Order No. 9095

“…Then, someone sent Antony a membership list of Skull and Bones and— ‘a picture jumped out’. And what a picture! A multigenerational foreign-based secret society with fingers in all kinds of pies and roots going back to influences in 1830’s Germany.”

Lincoln had to deal with the same issues also.

You doubt our snow drift paradox and the .02 issue at all our peril.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2549103?seq=1

The aim of that paper was to explain how to reconcile the concept of a demand for money into the theory of rational choice. Although Marshall had attempted to do so in his writings, his formulations of the idea were not fully satisfactory, and other Cambridge economists, notably Pigou, Lavington, Robertson, and Keynes, struggled to express the idea in a more satisfactory way than Marshall had done.

In Hicks’s introductory essay to volume II of his Collected Essays on Economic Theory in which his 1935 essay appears, Hicks recounts that Keynes told him after reading his essay that the essay was similar to the theory of liquidity preference, on which Keynes was then working.

In the theory of value, the work of Pareto, Wicksteed, and their successors, has broadened and deepened our whole conception of marginal utility. We now realize that the marginal utility analysis is nothing else than a general theory of choice, which is applicable whenever the choice is between alternatives that are capable of quantitative expression. Now money is obviously capable of quantitative expression, and therefore the objection that money has no marginal utility must be wrong. People do choose to have money rather than other things, and therefore, in the relevant sense, money must have a marginal utility.

At this point either you get it or you never will. Currently we are sanctioned to enter the mine process.

[Higgenbotham]

That takes us to about 1968 or so. After that, the adjoining territories had a bunch of dorrals that they wanted to redeem but the strongman said no, we're not going to redeem anybody's dorrals from here on out, not even the ones in the adjoining territories. And over time, more and more dorrals ended up sitting in adjoining territories. Since the dorrals could no longer be redeemed, the adjoining territories purchased the strongman's mortgages so they could get some income. The head goldsmith said later that those adjoining territories who had accumulated a lot of dorrals had a "savings glut." Meanwhile, the strongman decided that moving the manufacturing base to the adjoining territories wouldn't be any problem at all because he could buy the goods that were formerly manufactured at high cost within his territory for lower cost when made in the adjoining territories. At the same time, all of the loans were required to be denominated in dorrals, which forced a scramble for dorrals anytime the expansion went into reverse.

So, to summarize, what underpins the value of the dorral seems to be:

1. The fact that adjoining territories sell goods for dorrals and accumulate dorrals to purchase assets that pay interest;
2. The fact that the population in the territory must pay taxes in dorrals; and
3. The fact that loans in the territory and adjoining territories are made in dorrals, which creates some demand for dorrals anytime an expansion goes into reverse.

If there is a rise in the interest rate, surely the mortgages are worth less and that can be calculated. However, I don't believe that directly correlates with the value of dorrals due to these other factors.

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7cwDR0YYek

Currently we are translating the exchange rate from files found in Toronto also from the scripted
barter known also as a carry trade.

The narrative you constructed is true in addition to the diluted exchange rate underway.
The current pro forma calculations is being imported to gaap data sets.

The questions remains who actually was removed from the books since 1202 anno domini.

[Higgenbotham]

The narrative you constructed is true in addition to the diluted exchange rate underway.

My narrative probably isn't all that helpful. At least, I can't think of how it helps me.