Generational Dynamics World View News

[Tom Mazanec]

And speaking of inflation, the CPI went up 0.55% January to February, which is 6.6% annual inflation.

[John]

** 11-Mar-2021 World View: CPI

> And speaking of inflation, the CPI went up 0.55% January to
> February, which is 6.6% annual inflation.

The figure you're quoting is an annualized rate.

> "U.S. consumer prices rise 0.4% in February, as expected

> The Labor Department said on Wednesday its consumer price index
> increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.3% in January. In the 12
> months through February, the CPI gained 1.7%, the largest rise
> since February 2020, after climbing 1.4% in the 12 months through
> January."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/us-cons ... ected.html

[DaKardii]

John, I'm of the opinion that we're headed for neither an inflationary crisis nor a deflationary crisis, but rather something else that is both similar and different to both... and also arguably much worse than either.

I don't know what to call it, because it's an economic event that has never before happened in our history. In fact, it wasn't even possible for something like it to happen until the petrodollar was created.

Here's how I think it will play out:

• Something happens that causes the petrodollar to collapse. It could be a major war in the Middle East, the collapse of the Saudi regime, the collapse of Saudi-American relations, or a major discovery or technology that renders Saudi oil obsolete.

• With the petrodollar gone, the price of pretty much everything quadruples overnight in order to reflect the actual volume of the money supply.

• Because this inflation is a response to a money supply that was printed years ago, as opposed to yesterday, people won't have immediate access to large amounts of dollars to keep up with rising prices like they would during a hyperinflationary event. Instead of wiping out their debt and still being able to eat as long as they kept collecting dollars, they would remain in debt and starve.

• Because nobody is able to buy anything anymore, many businesses will start taking massive losses. Those that aren't fortunate enough to have lots of reserve cash on hand will be forced to close and/or declare bankruptcy, because again, nobody's able to buy anything. They won't be able to sell their assets for cash like they would be during a "normal" economic crisis.

• Meanwhile, creditors will start freaking out. Inflation, but borrowers can't pay off their debts? Many creditors won't know how to respond to this crisis, and inevitably will make reckless decisions that will only make things worse.

• The government won't know what to do either. If it prints more money, the crisis will become hyperinflationary. If it doesn't, it could default on its own debts. Meanwhile, it will be scrambling to find a new hard asset to back the dollar in order (1) keep it stable and (2) figure out how much the money supply can be decreased without causing a deflationary crisis. Depending on what the government chooses, this may or may not result in it resorting to mass asset confiscation, perhaps without compensation for those affected.

• With a massive increase in prices, consumption having come to a near-complete halt, businesses failing left and right, the banking system plagued with indecision, and government fiscal policy falling apart at the seams, Wall Street will be extremely scared, to the point where the stock market crashes.

• The stock market crash will drive down prices, but with massive inflation and massive deflation occurring literally back to back, there won't be a recovery any time soon...

In sum, a crisis that has all the worst aspects of both inflation and deflation rolled into one.

What do you think?

[JCP]

John, I'm of the opinion that we're headed for neither an inflationary crisis nor a deflationary crisis, but rather something else that is both similar and different to both... and also arguably much worse than either.

I don't know what to call it, because it's an economic event that has never before happened in our history. In fact, it wasn't even possible for something like it to happen until the petrodollar was created.

Here's how I think it will play out:

• Something happens that causes the petrodollar to collapse. It could be a major war in the Middle East, the collapse of the Saudi regime, the collapse of Saudi-American relations, or a major discovery or technology that renders Saudi oil obsolete.

• With the petrodollar gone, the price of pretty much everything quadruples overnight in order to reflect the actual volume of the money supply.

• Because this inflation is a response to a money supply that was printed years ago, as opposed to yesterday, people won't have immediate access to large amounts of dollars to keep up with rising prices like they would during a hyperinflationary event. Instead of wiping out their debt and still being able to eat as long as they kept collecting dollars, they would remain in debt and starve.

• Because nobody is able to buy anything anymore, many businesses will start taking massive losses. Those that aren't fortunate enough to have lots of reserve cash on hand will be forced to close and/or declare bankruptcy, because again, nobody's able to buy anything. They won't be able to sell their assets for cash like they would be during a "normal" economic crisis.

• Meanwhile, creditors will start freaking out. Inflation, but borrowers can't pay off their debts? Many creditors won't know how to respond to this crisis, and inevitably will make reckless decisions that will only make things worse.

• The government won't know what to do either. If it prints more money, the crisis will become hyperinflationary. If it doesn't, it could default on its own debts. Meanwhile, it will be scrambling to find a new hard asset to back the dollar in order (1) keep it stable and (2) figure out how much the money supply can be decreased without causing a deflationary crisis. Depending on what the government chooses, this may or may not result in it resorting to mass asset confiscation, perhaps without compensation for those affected.

• With a massive increase in prices, consumption having come to a near-complete halt, businesses failing left and right, the banking system plagued with indecision, and government fiscal policy falling apart at the seams, Wall Street will be extremely scared, to the point where the stock market crashes.

• The stock market crash will drive down prices, but with massive inflation and massive deflation occurring literally back to back, there won't be a recovery any time soon...

In sum, a crisis that has all the worst aspects of both inflation and deflation rolled into one.

What do you think?

I'm thinking more along the lines of a nuclear war which would implode the value of paper currencies, the stock market, Bitcoin, and gold.

[JCP]

** 07-Mar-2021 World View: After the war

> Tim has some good info, but personally, I don't know why anyone
> would want to survive a full blown nuclear war. It will take a
> hundred years to rebuild from one, if ever. Third world countries
> won't ever recover. I think Higge has a better outlook, survive a
> year and then decide if it is worth staying alive.

That's the wrong way of looking at it. I certainly wouldn't want to
live through a full blown nuclear war, but if you live through the war
and survive and come out the other end relatively unscathed, then in
many cases life could be quite good. There will be lots of work to do
to rebuild the world, and there will be lots of available chicks,
since usually more men than women are killed in war.

And it won't take a hundred years to rebuild. Within ten years,
things will already be looking pretty good, though primitive. After
another ten years the world will be pretty good.

I'm so upset about how Meghan Markle was treated by the Roysl family that I don't care if I die in a nuclear war. What is WW3 in comparison to the struggles of America' s greatest living actress? I can't write another word. I am too upset

Yeah, me, too.

[Tom Mazanec]

DaKardii:
Good scary scenario.
John:
I got the figure from the CPI calculator https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
And the ice cream place across the street just sharply rose their prices

EDIT: Here are a couple from my favorite doommonger, Mike Snyder
U.S. vs. China: “Years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war”
http://endoftheamericandream.com/u-s-vs ... -that-war/

These days, social justice and political correctness have become far higher priorities than preparing to win future wars, and that is a huge problem.
Because someday the U.S. will have to fight China, and right now we are clearly not prepared for such a conflict.
Years of Pentagon war games have made it clear that we are not ready to defend Taiwan or to face off with China in any other conflict in the region.
The outcomes of most wars are decided before they are ever fought. Unfortunately, it appears that the Chinese understand this far better than we do.

So This Is How The U.S. Dollar Dies…
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/so-t ... llar-dies/

It took from the founding of the United States to 2020 for M1 to get to 4 trillion dollars.
And then it took about one year for M1 to go from 4 trillion dollars to 18 trillion dollars.

[John]

** 12-Mar-2021 World View: CPI

> I got the figure from the CPI calculator
> https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ream place
> across the street just sharply rose their prices

So I used your calculator and filled in the fields with $100, February
2020 and February 2021, and pressed "Calculate".

And it says: "$100.00 in February 2020 has the same buying power as
$101.68 in February 2021."

So that would indicate an annual inflation rate of 1.68%.

[John]

** 12-Mar-2021 World View: Antifa-blm violence explodes in Portland Oregon on Thursday

• Tweet by local journalist Garrison Davis showing federal
  police clashing with protesters in Portland on Thursday night (Daily
  Mail)

Democrats had promised that the antifa-blm fascist riots would end
once Trump was no longer president, but they've actually been
continuing off and on in Portland, Oregon, for over a year.

On Thursday evening they exploded. Dozens of demostrators set fires,
smashed windows, and burned American flags outside the federal
courthouse until police forced them to flee. Courthouse walls were
spray-painted with graffiti as well.

The police deployed chemical weapons and projectiles. Bystanders
claimed the police were aggressive and the air was thick with smoke.
Police said they expected more violence over the weekend.

The antifa rioters were reportedly rioting against Immigration and
Customs Enforcement (ICE). Others protested proposed plans to replace
and expand an oil pipeline that stretches between Superior, WI, and
Alberta, Canada. Protesters carried a large banner proclaiming:
“Protect the land, end America.”

Black lives matter (blm) supporters said that they were rioting in
protest of the refusal by Portland police and Mayor Ted Wheeler’s
refusal to reopen a case where a black man was allegedly shot multiple
times by police.

It seems likely that antifa-blm fascist violence is going to grow as
the weather warms up, and spread to other cities.

The trial in Minneapolis of the Derek Chauvin in the death of George
Floyd is expected to trigger nationwide antifa-blm fascist violence
because, according to several legal analysts on Fox News including
Alan Dershowitz, the evidence is insufficient for a verdict for guilty
of murder, although there may be enough evidence for a verdict for
guilty of manslaughter.

Ted Wheeler, the Mayor of Portland, is seeking $2 million in
additional funding for police. Last summer, Wheeler led the way to
defund the police, but there has been a massive increase in gun
violence, and he's forced to make a u-turn.

--- Sources:

-- Portland protesters set fires, damage federal courthouse; officers
respond with tear gas, impact munitions
https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/202 ... sters.html
(Oregonian, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Crowd becomes destructive outside federal courthouse in downtown
Portland; officers deploy tear gas
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/ ... 95d9e9a698
(KGW-Portland, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Ted Wheeler / Portland mayor seeks $2M for police to stem rampant
gun violence
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2021/mar/1 ... -violence/
(AP, 11-Mar-2021)

-- Overnight riots in Portland: Tear-gas, violent confrontation with
police outside federal courthouse
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2021/03/12 ... e-1041901/
(BizPacReview, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Portland burns AGAIN: Federal agents shoot tear gas at Antifa
protesters setting fire to American flags and smashing windows
outside boarded-up courthouse
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tland.html
(DailyMail, 12-Mar-2021)

[Xeraphim1]

** 12-Mar-2021 World View: Antifa-blm violence explodes in Portland Oregon on Thursday

• Tweet by local journalist Garrison Davis showing federal
  police clashing with protesters in Portland on Thursday night (Daily
  Mail)

Democrats had promised that the antifa-blm fascist riots would end
once Trump was no longer president, but they've actually been
continuing off and on in Portland, Oregon, for over a year.

It's still Trump's fault, because, you know, ... Trump.
Being on the left is great because no one expects any kind of consistency.

[Guest]

My sister is really leftwing, has a rich husband, and owns a luxurious house in Portland. She told me off last year saying things like "BLM is not the problem!"

Well, I guess it is.

She now lives overseas.