Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

Look at the Dollar and the World Reserve Currency as a "Game Theory" thing. What is the best move for individuals in the face of the likely destruction of the US dollar as they print trillions of new dollars? What will the new Nash Equilibrium be?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium

They did $1.9 trillion this past month and are working on another $2 trillion with another $1 trillion after that. They will keep doing this till something breaks. It will break as a "death spiral" or "positive feedback loop" that can not be stopped. Can you see this going any other way? What will break? What will happen after that?

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/09 ... -many.html

To me it looks like the best move for individuals is to sell dollars and buy Bitcoin. If everyone does this the dollar will become worthless and we will all use Bitcoin. What other ways can people imagine the game going?

I think he reads our obvious and well reasoned responses and just screams "NO" into the screen like a 4 year old child at this point. How else can you explain saying nothing in posts over and over and over?

[Higgenbotham]

This is a duck.



Bitcoin is a bubble.

The onus is on you to prove that it is not a bubble.

I'm sorry your panties are in a wad because I refuse to be suckered into your bubble.

Methinks thou dost protest too much.

[Higgenbotham]

How many years will it take get through to you? You can't be this dumb.

I just bought Bitcoin.

April Fools, the joke is on you.

No, I'm not that dumb. I will never buy Bitcoin. Never. I'm not a fool.

You'll have to sell your Bitcoin to somebody else, the Greater Fool, not me.

[Higgenbotham]

The roar of the bubble crowd is so loud, I can't even follow through with what my original purpose was, which was to talk about where to short the stock market bubble when it finally reaches its top.

I guess I'll have to keep that to myself. I don't want to be criticized for going against the bubble.

[John]

** 01-Apr-2021 World View: Shocking economist - Michael T Lee

I see mainstream economists on tv all the time, and they all say the
same thing -- Fed printing money, too much money chasing too few
goods, inflation coming, blah, blah, blah. What the hell is wrong
with these people? They've been saying the same thing over and over
for 20 years, and they've been wrong every time. How stupid do you
have to be to say the same stupid thing over and over, and be wrong
every time, and still say the same stupid thing over and over.

So imagine my shock and bewilderment when I saw an economist on TV who
actually knew what he was talking about.

Michael T Lee appeared on Varney and Company on Fox Business Network
this morning, on the subject of inflation, and explaining why there
won't be inflation. He traced the velocity of money back to the
financial crisis, and went into details about how the Fed's printed
money is going into "the zone," which I assume means banks and
financial firms, but because of regulations cannot be lent out, and so
cannot contribute to inflation.

This interview was a double shock for me. First, he's an economist
who knows what he's talking about, and that makes him unique among the
other mainstream economists who are on all the time, and who are all
idiots. And second, it's always an enormous shock to me to hear
somebody who agrees with me. I wonder if he's seen my web site?

Anyway, I checked out his web site, and it's pretty sparse, and not
being kept up to date. However, he does have one page of videos of
various appearances on Fox Business Network:

https://www.michaelleestrategy.com/clients

I assume that this morning's interview will appear on that page
sometime soon, and when it does, it will be worthwhile watching.

[Cool Breeze]

** 01-Apr-2021 World View: Shocking economist - Michael T Lee

I see mainstream economists on tv all the time, and they all say the
same thing -- Fed printing money, too much money chasing too few
goods, inflation coming, blah, blah, blah. What the hell is wrong
with these people? They've been saying the same thing over and over
for 20 years, and they've been wrong every time. How stupid do you
have to be to say the same stupid thing over and over, and be wrong
every time, and still say the same stupid thing over and over.

So imagine my shock and bewilderment when I saw an economist on TV who
actually knew what he was talking about.

Michael T Lee appeared on Varney and Company on Fox Business Network
this morning, on the subject of inflation, and explaining why there
won't be inflation. He traced the velocity of money back to the
financial crisis, and went into details about how the Fed's printed
money is going into "the zone," which I assume means banks and
financial firms, but because of regulations cannot be lent out, and so
cannot contribute to inflation.

This interview was a double shock for me. First, he's an economist
who knows what he's talking about, and that makes him unique among the
other mainstream economists who are on all the time, and who are all
idiots. And second, it's always an enormous shock to me to hear
somebody who agrees with me. I wonder if he's seen my web site?

Anyway, I checked out his web site, and it's pretty sparse, and not
being kept up to date. However, he does have one page of videos of
various appearances on Fox Business Network:

https://www.michaelleestrategy.com/clients

I assume that this morning's interview will appear on that page
sometime soon, and when it does, it will be worthwhile watching.

You should seek out Lacy Hunt. He has been saying this for over a decade. Steven Van Metre and Brent Johnson more recently.

The problem is that it can change on a dime with legislation or manipulation by Fed Chairs (which would only happen after Powell, if it did, btw). But yes, deflation (or disinflation) reigns until ... it doesn't. That happens quickly, and is the caveat to your argument John, which I've always agreed with.

[vincecate]

I see mainstream economists on tv all the time, and they all say the
same thing -- Fed printing money, too much money chasing too few
goods, inflation coming, blah, blah, blah. What the hell is wrong
with these people? They've been saying the same thing over and over
for 20 years, and they've been wrong every time. How stupid do you
have to be to say the same stupid thing over and over, and be wrong
every time, and still say the same stupid thing over and over.

The "run away inflation" problem does not happen every year but when it does it can wipe people out very fast.
If someone has been in gold and Bitcoin over the last 20 years, they are doing just fine. If someone is in 30 year bonds they will be wiped out in the coming years. The inflation will come and it is much better if you plan for it than if it takes you by surprise.

That people still have such low interest rates on long term bonds and such high P/E ratios on stocks shows that people don't really believe there is inflation coming. So the people predicting inflation are the Cassandras.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

John, want to make a "bragging rights bet" where I say the US gets a year with over 10% annual inflation rate sometime in the next 8 years and you say it wont? We can use CPI or some other index if you want.

[John]

** 01-Apr-2021 World View: Changing on a dime

> You should seek out Lacy Hunt. He has been saying this for over a
> decade. Steven Van Metre and Brent Johnson more recently.

I haven't seen them on TV, but I'll watch out for them. But if they
aren't adherents to the inflation religion, then they wouldn't be
very popular. I'm surprised that Michael T Lee is on TV, but perhaps
that's because he's sleeping with someone at Fox Business News.

> The problem is that it can change on a dime with legislation or
> manipulation by Fed Chairs (which would only happen after Powell,
> if it did, btw). But yes, deflation (or disinflation) reigns until
> ... it doesn't. That happens quickly, and is the caveat to your
> argument John, which I've always agreed with.

Oh for heaven's sake, no it can't change on a dime. Don't you ever
learn? Inflation now is impossible, for reasons I've given many
times, and for reasons stated in the Michael Lee interview.

The irony is that you think that inflation can change on a dime, which
it can't, but that bitcoin cannot change on a dime, which it can.

> The "run away inflation" problem does not happen every year but
> when it does it can wipe people out very fast.

It's impossible at the current time in America, for reasons I've stated
many times.

> John, want to make a "bragging rights bet" where I say the US gets
> a year with over 10% annual inflation rate sometime in the next 8
> years and you say it wont? We can use CPI or some other index if
> you want.

You've been in this forum for over ten years. You've been saying the
same thing dozens of times for over ten years. And you've been wrong
every time. So I'll pass on your "bragging rights bet," and just be
satisfied with the fact that I've already been right dozens of times,
and you've always been wrong.

What's the matter with you guys? Don't you ever learn?

[Higgenbotham]

The top of the "all one market" bubble appears to be at hand. Bitcoin is the poster child for this bubble.

Prove it. Oh wait, you won't answer again? Great job, Higgy. The onus is on YOU to prove your assertions. Not anyone else.

All I have to do is listen to you scream to know the top of the "all one market" bubble is at hand. Seen it all before with petulant children like you. But, sssshhhhh, it's a secret. I don't want to trigger another tantrum.

[Cool Breeze]

Oh for heaven's sake, no it can't change on a dime. Don't you ever
learn? Inflation now is impossible, for reasons I've given many
times, and for reasons stated in the Michael Lee interview.

The irony is that you think that inflation can change on a dime, which
it can't, but that bitcoin cannot change on a dime, which it can.

I haven't been calling for anything but BTC to keep rising. Like Vince, I have been correct. And will continue to, for reasons I have stated and Vince has supported with his many insightful posts.

Lacy Hunt states that it won't change unless they change the way the Federal Reserve acts (the FR act itself) vis a vis "lending vs providing" (Powell's words). It is a subscription (except for the crypto) but Hunt is on realvision occasionally, most recently with Danielle DiMartino. He has other stuff you can read for free. He's a sharp guy and has played the bond game for over a decade and made a lot of money on it.

He insists we are a nation of laws but you and I know that isn't true. It can change on a dime and will if the right person is Fed Chair with this Treasurer (Yellen) and this administration and congress. Having said all that, you are wrong John. Period. It can and will change if the circumstances are right.

Add it to the list.