Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

For further proof that Russia is not interested in annexing the Poland or the Baltic States, look to Aleksandr Dugin. He is basically to the Russian foreign policy establishment what Brzezinski is to the American foreign policy establishment.

In 1997, the same year Brzezinski published The Grand Chessboard, Dugin published his own foreign policy manifesto, Foundations of Geopolitics. Like Brzezinski, Dugin's worldview is heavily influenced by Mackinder's "Heartland" theory and uses it as a pretext for imperialism. But unlike Brzezinski, Dugin specifically lays out which countries should be incorporated in the Empire, and which should not be. He lists the following as targets for annexation:

• All of Finland

• All of Belarus

• Eastern Ukraine, including Crimea

• The Orthodox-majority regions of the Balkans

• Abkhazia and South Ossetia

• Northern Azerbaijan

• All of Central Asia minus Afghanistan

• All of Mongolia

Notice what's missing from that list: Poland and the Baltic States.

Now, Dugin does mention those countries in his book, but he believes they should be kept independent but subservient to larger powers. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia go to the Russian sphere; Estonia goes to the German sphere.

Assuming Russia is a rational actor in its imperial mission, one should presume that it would go after the actual targets for annexation before going after other countries. This means that it's much more likely that a Russo-NATO confrontation would take place in the Orthodox Balkan countries that are currently part of NATO. Those countries are Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Romania. And out of those five countries, only Bulgaria and Romania currently share a border with Russia; and those borders are maritime, not land.

Even more interestingly, Bulgaria and Romania also share a border with Turkey (Bulgaria has a land border, Romania has maritime border). In the event of a Russo-Turkish conflict, those countries are ripe for picking (so they can be converted into buffer states).

To conclude, we've been looking at the wrong countries in anticipation for a Russia's next move. We've been looking too far west, and not far enough south.

[John]

** 02-Apr-2021 World View: Noah Green

• Noah Green

The terrorist du jour is Noah Green, a follower of Nation of
Islam.

*** Noah Green: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know
https://heavy.com/news/noah-green/

[John]

** 31-Mar-2021 World View: BBC China reporter John Sudworth and family flee to Taiwan

• John Sudworth

The BBC's Beijing correspondent John Sudworth has taken his family and
fled to Taiwan, after "massive surveillance, obstruction and
intimidation" from Chinese authorities.

Sudworth has been particularly effective in reporting China's ongoing
genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of the Muslim Uighurs in
East Turkestan (Xinjiang province), through the use of leaked
documents, interviews, and satellite photos. Sudworth has also
reported extensively on other human rights issues, including religious
persecution and brutality in Hong Kong, and so the events surrounding
the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus.

The Chinese Communists have become angrier and more defensive about
such reporting. It used to be that the Communists could make some
mealy-mouthed excuse and the useful idiots in the Western media would
simply report it as fact. But today, there are few useful idiots
left, and almost nobody believes anything that the Communists say, and
that is infuriating the Communists, since their entire foreign policy
depends on having everything they say, no matter how ridiculous, be
believed without question.

The same has been true about the Wuhan Coronavirus. The Communists
tried to blame it on a plant by the US army, but no one believed that.
Then they tried to blame it on frozen food imports from other
countries, but no one believes that either. Today the debate is
whether the virus escaped from a Chinese virology lab, where it had
been created. This is still under debate, but nobody believes
anything the Communists say on the subject.

The Communists have been having increasingly hostile reactions to the
mere mention of any of these issues, and they're striking out in any
way possible, using bribery, extortion, detention, intimidation, or
other tools.. Australia's government announced that it wanted an
international investigation of the source of the Wuhan Coronavirus,
and China is boycotting Australia wine and other products.

Economic boycotts are standard fare. Swedish firm Hennes & Mauritz AB
(H&M) is the world's second largest fashion retailer, with 505 stores
across China. Last year, a statement on its web site said that it was
“deeply concerned by reports from civil society organizations and
media that include accusations of forced labor and discrimination of
ethnoreligious minorities." This resulted in a boycott, forcing the
shutdown of many H&M stores in China, and removal of H&M from
e-commerce platforms. H&M has removed the statement from its web
site, but that isn't enough for the Communists. A CCP post says, "Why
doesn’t H&M apologize openly to consumers?", and a Chinese Commerce
Ministry spokesman said, "We can’t tolerate any forces bringing shame
on and tarnishing the pure and flawless Xinjiang cotton." Other
Western brands including Burberry, Nike and Adidas have also been hit
by consumer boycotts in China for raising similar concerns.

These actions by the Communists have been getting more belligerent as
time goes on. It's extended to a number of journalists.

Last year, China expelled at least 18 foreign correspondents from the
New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post as a
diplomatic row deepened between Beijing and Washington. In the last
few months, several journalists have been arrested without
explanation.

Lately, John Sudworth has been increasingly intimidated and threatened
with lawsuits for his reporting about the Uighurs. The threat of
lawsuits was a suggestion that he was about to have his passport taken
so that he couldn't leave the country.

Thus, he and his family packed hurriedly and fled to the airport. As
he was fleeing, he was tailed by police and followed through the
airport. He left with his wife, Yvvone Murray, China correspondent
for Irish broadcaster RTE, and their three young children. They are
now in Taiwan, where he continues as BBC China correspondent.

His sudden departure apparently caught the Communists by surprise.
State media was bitterly critical, saying that he "faces potential
lawsuits for slanderous reports" for fake news, and that he left
"without notification," and "is now believed to be hiding in Taiwan
island." My guess is that a lot of people in Beijing are furious that
he got away before they could confiscate his passport or jail him.

Sudworth has been reporting from China since 2012, the year that Xi
Jinping was appointed as general secretary of the Chinese Communist
Party. According to Sudworth, "President Xi has used China's already
rigid political system to tighten control over almost every aspect of
society, and 10 years into his now open-ended tenure, it is the media
landscape that has emerged as the defining battleground."

---- Sources:

-- BBC China correspondent John Sudworth moves to Taiwan after threats
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56586655
(BBC, 31-Mar-2021)

-- 'The grim reality of reporting in China that pushed me out’ By John
Sudworth
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56607815
(BBC, 1-Apr-2021)

-- BBC reporter John Sudworth hides in Taiwan island after Xinjiang
individuals plan to sue BBC for fake news: source
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219922.shtml
(Global Times, Beijing, 31-Mar-2021)

-- BBC reporter John Sudworth faces potential lawsuits for slanderous
reports, leaves without notification
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1220021.shtml
(Global Times, Beijing, 1-Apr-2021)

-- BBC journalist John Sudworth leaves China over safety concerns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... -concerns/
(Telegraph, London, 31-Mar-2021)

-- BBC journalist leaves China after Beijing criticises Uighurs
coverage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... s-coverage
(Guardian, London, 31-Mar-2021)

-- China's Threat to Free Speech in Europe
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1721 ... ech-europe
(Gatestone, 31-Mar-2021)

-- H&M vows to rebuild trust in China after Xinjiang backlash
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h-m- ... SKBN2BN0LV
(Reuters, 31-Mar-2021)

-- Hennes & Mauritz AB / H&M Stores Shuttered in China as Backlash
Over Xinjiang Grows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... iang-grows
(Bloomberg, 27-Mar-2021)

[Navigator]

While we argue about gender and transgender abilities in the military our enemies continue to prepare for war.

Learning about WWII I never understood how Germany got away with rebuilding its military after WWI and how it was such a surprise when they defeated France so quickly.

I still think a "Chinese Pearl Harbor attack" is in our future with a missile attack on American cities. Same strategy Japan had knock us out of the war quickly even though it will not work.

The French lost WW2 primarily for two reasons (there are many additional ones, but these two cover the main points):

1. The top French generals, Gamelin and Georges, were two of the worst commanders in military history. The French troops mostly fought well, but the plans, strategic and tactical, that these two saddled the French army with were disastrous.

2. The French actually had more tanks (and many of superior quality) to what the Germans had. But instead of keeping up with evolving military theory (concentration of tanks into armor divisions), the French mostly had theirs dispersed in support roles to infantry divisions.

The French being "surrender monkeys" is a myth. The real "surrender monkeys" are non-professionals in the Italian Army.

[Navigator]

Wouldn't attacking the Baltics require a NATO military response?

My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics.

Then, yes, his going after the Baltics will require a NATO response.

But my guess is that they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade him.

He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the Baltics. This is my guess.

How long of a breather?

ARM THE CHECHENS.

My bet is that he goes for Ukraine soon (within a couple of weeks at the latest). After that is done, the Russians will wait for the USA to be embroiled in Asia (Taiwan, Korea, Japan) before going after the Baltic states.

Now that Putin has the Belarusian president in his pocket, Putin feels he can act.

[Navigator]

Russia is not going to attack the Baltic states unless there's a major incident that forces it to do so defensively.

If Russia's going to go on the offensive, it probably will do so in Ukraine, in the Eastern Balkans, in the Caucasus, and/or in the Far East. And it will be doing so in order to create buffers against China and Turkey.

The Russians are freaked out about the Baltic states belonging to NATO. This was actually a pretty provocative move on NATO's part, even if the desire to help ensure the independence of the Baltics was desirable.

Putin wants to put Russia back where it was pre-USSR breakup. Having NATO bases in the Baltics is seen as an existential threat to the defense of "Mother Russia".

[Navigator]

The Ukrainian government is incompetent and corrupt and has made Ukraine one of the poorest countries in Europe. Ukraine has gotten lazy and complacent, knowing that they can always rely on the West to defend them. A significant portion of Eastern Ukraine is ethnically Russian and speaks Russian. Let Russia take Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, and even Kharkiv. Ukraine isn't worth defending, nor is Belarus. The line in the sand should be drawn further West at Finland, Estonia/Latvia, and Poland.

The Europeans will do little or more likely nothing to defend Ukraine. They (and US) will bloviate and tell Putin how bad he is, but he will get away with it. The Europeans will not even do an economic embargo as they are completely dependent on Russia for energy needs.

Belarus is now a defacto Russian ally. This is because the Belarus president had to get Putin's backing when his latest election theft became obvious and people went to the streets in protest.

Very soon the defacto line of defense will be Finland, Poland, Romania. It is impossible to defend the Baltic states, and everyone knows it. The only question is if their defense leads to actual war in Europe that nobody really wants.

[DaKardii]

The Russians are freaked out about the Baltic states belonging to NATO. This was actually a pretty provocative move on NATO's part, even if the desire to help ensure the independence of the Baltics was desirable.

Putin wants to put Russia back where it was pre-USSR breakup. Having NATO bases in the Baltics is seen as an existential threat to the defense of "Mother Russia".

Yes, but that doesn't necessarily means Russia wants to annex those countries, like it wants to annex the Orthodox Balkans.

[Guest]

The Russians are freaked out about the Baltic states belonging to NATO. This was actually a pretty provocative move on NATO's part, even if the desire to help ensure the independence of the Baltics was desirable.

Putin wants to put Russia back where it was pre-USSR breakup. Having NATO bases in the Baltics is seen as an existential threat to the defense of "Mother Russia".

Yes, but that doesn't necessarily means Russia wants to annex those countries, like it wants to annex the Orthodox Balkans.

What the hell that does that hair spliting even mean?

Either you are the president of the Putin fan club and a shill or you are just ridiculous.

[Guest]

Russia Warns of Anti-White 'Aggression' in U.S.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday warned that anti-white racism might be building in the United States and said that political correctness "taken to the extreme" would have lamentable consequences.

But Lavrov stressed it was important "not to switch to the other extreme which we saw during the 'BLM' (Black Lives Matter) events and the aggression against white people, white U.S. citizens."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/ ... -us-a73446