Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

1960 was the year that JFK, the first "celebrity" president, was elected. Ever since then, American politics has been slowly transforming from a "battle of policies" to a "battle of religions."

The American people at large have stopped viewing politicians as mere elected representatives, and now view them as gods to be worshipped. They no longer vote according to what they actually believe in, but rather in accordance to the political religion they have adopted. They vote out of compulsion, not out of conviction.

The politicians know this. And that's why they think, or rather know, that they can get away with whatever they want.

This is also true of the rich.

Modifying the above a bit:

1960 was the year that JFK, the first "celebrity" president, was elected. After that, thanks to the growing saturation of media in people's lives, other prominent people, including wealthy people, also attained similar "celebrity" status.

The American people now view the rich as gods to be worshipped. In many cases, they no longer invest according to their own ideology, but rather in accordance with whatever ideology they blindly adopt from a wealthy person who has attained guru status, such as Warrren Buffet's advice to invest in index funds. They invest out of compulsion, not out of conviction.

The rich know this. And that's why they think, or rather know, that they can get away with whatever they want.

Musk being a great example of this. Musk may not know what he's talking about or what he's doing, but he knows what his celebrity status will allow him to get away with.

[Higgenbotham]

How many months or years do you think it will be till the CPI for the previous 12 months gets over 5%?

If it takes more debt to buy more inflation, then we can at least get an idea of approximately how much additional debt it will take to buy X% inflation under current conditions.

Looking at the annual percent increase in CPI divided by the annual percent increase in total credit market debt gives this graph:



Taking out the perturbation from 2008 allows us to more easily view the trends before and after 2008:





The problem the Fed has now is interest rates are going up. It appears that additional debt is buying both increased interest rates and increased inflation.

Maybe as a rough estimate, total credit market debt might have to increase by at least 12% annually to get at least 5% inflation under current conditions?

[aeden]

https://knoema.com/dniwemb/us-inflation

People seem blind to what is coming...

How many months or years do you think it will be till the CPI for the previous 12 months gets over 5%?

By August I think we can get a better view on it. Not trying to avert the question either also.
Disinflation will appear in some areas since we are not buying durable goods for some time at home either or automotive
garbage being produced. We sure as hell are not luddites either.
The only thing transitory is the rate of bankruptcy's from these gain of function lunatics squarely on them.
The long term medical treatments are real on the numbers we seen from this Human carnage.
People cannot or will not heal on many levels also since they know and see rot on so many levels.

One thing also is it appears the flu went extinct from these evil beings top down. Data fragility was the early and constant warning.
The cartelization processes and new barrier costs we see will finish off some also.
Last time we seen this level of melt we had 17 percent overproduction on a few key areas of fine chems and catalyst supply chains.
We never abandoned the - wasting - elements of our basic understanding we seen coming.
This inflation equation is being interpreted as more are after inventory.
As H indicated given the data sets He will in all likelyhood drill down on it faster than most.
H was early on His indication but every peak I added short until we hit the rip cord on the date
here not needed for us for very modest Hit.

Americans appear brain dead to blatant stupidity from the Office level of the Third administration and security issues.
We already know the kill boxes have doubled in the slaughter zones and the reprehensible acts of medical experiments ongoing.

The pick up the body's at dawn locally has not really slowed down either given the numbers.
As we said point blank never in our lifetime will they ever entertain our interest. Truly they serve evil only
as they tout dysfunctional. Compromise with this evil makes you evil.

John Galt also could care less going forward.
Nobody and I mean nobody trusts the democrats ever again who can think.

Business does not pay tax the consumers do.
They will and have slaughtered the base while untouched by these gain of function lunatic cults still out of control.
It is more than apparent they will run this until complete implosion unpunished.

[Higgenbotham]

As H indicated given the data sets He will in all likelyhood drill down on it faster than most.

We can see that the trend (since 1980) is for lower and lower peaks (in CPI annual change divided by total credit market debt annual change) to induce recession. It may have been the tax cuts in 2017 that prevented recession at the last peak.

The Fed learned in 2008 that they can't let total credit market debt level off (or that's what they thought they learned from it anyway).



I'm not convinced that a few other countries having higher total debt to GDP means that the US can approach those levels. The debt in the peripheral countries is more likely the Achilles Heel and in the US it is more likely the corporate debt component of total credit market debt.

[Higgenbotham]

H was early on His indication but every peak I added short until we hit the rip cord on the date
here not needed for us for very modest Hit.

I'm still short and waiting. I didn't leverage with futures when the market crossed 4200, as I had previously indicated I would. I went about another 5% short and that was it.

As you've indicated inverse ETFs are sheep shear zones. I've been doing a small amount of trading to counter that as we wait. With the current backwardation in the S&P futures of 10 points per quarter those are also sheep shear zones.

[Higgenbotham]

As far as Musk not knowing what he's doing or wants to do from day to day, that applies to all heads of large organizations, economic or political. Those organizations are too complex for any person or group of people to efficiently organize. It's only the tailwind of more and more energy production that allows their inefficiency to exist. Once that tailwind is gone, manipulation and fraud can fill in the gap for awhile. After that phase is over, and without another better source of energy to create a new tailwind, human civilization will collapse to its most efficient state, which is the village or small town level.

[aeden]

It was for that day to close a failing position and break even by book 4.
Not pretty but closed SH the next day also.
Will wait for retest to reopen book four unleveraged.
The maniacs are still are still in the Kitchen so we watch the usual suspects
as the Baal cults run riot in once was a Civilization.
This means nothing good is seen and the Senate lacks any resolve to check these
delirious demsheviks and the Rhinos are just lucky strike Hookers at Port for a very long time.
They wanted the middle to vanish since outsourcing still unchecked since the CRA notes indicated.

thread:
Operation white crow won the discussion and I will link it for our collective edification also.
I was reviewing OLD53 advise on a view and he was correct in Ferdynand Antoni Ossendowski
real time study to survive policy strains released on a population.

There are times, men and events about which History alone can record the final judgments;
contemporaries and individual observers must only write what they have seen and heard.
The very truth demands it.
Titus Livious.

[aeden]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Bk4Ecdp00d

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66uEUvWP8cc review

thread: amos, bea

[aeden]

https://cultofthedeadfish.blogspot.com/ ... swine.html
sheep then as now even more so

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba8XdDqZ-Jg because

[aeden]

POS who wrote the hit piece on AGM that got him fired: https://9to5mac.com/author/apollozac/

Woke coke and rotten apple never to be going forward now.
Take the 6 foot amazon beauty for the total win.

Problems with batch predictions.
One non-solution is to avoid making predictions online.
You can generate predictions in batch offline, store them (e.g. in SQL tables), and pull out pre-computed predictions when needed.
This can work when the input space is finite – you know exactly how many possible inputs to make predictions for.

One example of a distilled network used in production is DistilBERT, which reduces the size of a BERT model by 40%,
while retaining 97% of its language understanding capabilities and being 60% faster.

Rabid woke.
Avoid.

Red Diapers
Demsheviks
1963 warning

Avoid

"This country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as when the baby gets hold of a hammer." - Will Rogers