Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

[John]

** 17-Aug-2021 World View: The mood in South Korea and Taiwan

> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml

> It's from the official mouth piece of the CCP but the above linked
> article shows how the Afghan situation is being interpreted by
> players on the global stage. Also some commentators have noted
> (with naive shock) the "When not If" tone the article takes
> regarding military action to reintegrate Taiwan.

> Today, my manager (I work in Seoul) told me that while watching
> news about the fall of Kabul, she felt that this is what America
> would do to South Korea. That is the mood here now. I can imagine
> the Taiwanese are even more afraid. A few of my co-workers talked
> about this too. They asked me what I thought the Americans would
> do under Biden. I told them I don't know.

> That's the mood here now.

> I wonder if this is what Biden was paid by the Chinese to do? Or
> is this also 4D chess...

It's hard to overestimate the size of the catastrophe unfolding in
Afghanistan, with fallout that will last for years. The catastrophe
was capped off by that ridiculous speech on Monday by the doddering
Bernie, who can barely read a teleprompter.

The stupidity and incompetence of the Biden administration is
enormous. He threw open the southern border with no plan and
disastrous consequences. He closed the Keystone pipeline with no plan
and disastrous consequences. He advocated defunding the police in
multiple cities, with no plan and disastrous consequences. He shut
down Bagram airbase overnight, with no plan and disastrous
consequences. He pulled troops out of Kabul with no plan and
disastrous consequences, requiring him to send back 1000 troops, then
1000 more, then 1000 more, then 1000 more. When he announced 9/11 as
the final withdrawal date, I said he was dumber than a bag of hammers,
and three weeks from now we'll see the consequences -- a likely
resurgence of al-Qaeda celebrating the defeat of the United States
after 20 years inside the American embassy.

On the other hand, there is some leverage to be had. Unlike 20 years
ago, Kabul is a large urban city, with thousands of workers doing
everything from driving buses to teaching to fixing elevators in
government buildings to keeping the electric grid running, and the
Taliban will need international aid to pay for those services. Also,
Afghanistan has water problems and other environment problems,
including those caused by climate change, and they will need
international help with those. China, Russia and Iran will be
offering to provide some of that aid, in return for exploiting
Afghanistan's mineral resources.

So what does this mean for American defense of South Korea and Taiwan?

It would seem that this would indicate that America would not defend
its allies. But actually, it could have the opposite effect. The
Biden administration will not want to have a second black eye, so they
may actually be more likely than previously to provide a defense.

[Cool Breeze]

If I understand, you are saying the stressors on white Americans were large enough to reduce their population over the past 10 years. But the stressors on Indians and Africans aren't large enough, yet, to reduce their populations.

If that is right, what are the stressors white Americans have been facing that Indians and Africans have not yet faced?

This could be a longer answer, but it is most simply stated by saying "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization".

It's a numbers issue largely too. The absolute loss will be enormous for the bigger populations, but it will also be higher percentage wise; that's because when you consider the move down in numbers (already closer to bottom of the barrel survival states population wise) there eventually is a buoying effect that is not there at the crazy high trad/subsistence living paradigm of poorer nations, as they move down from crazy high population levels.

Capiche?

I think you would say wealth can go hand in hand with spiritual decay/demoralization, but it doesn't have to. In the case of white Americans in recent decades, it seems to have gone hand in hand.

By itself, I would not think of wealth as a stressor. It can mostly be the opposite. Wealth can provide relief from stress, but not always. Wouldn't spiritual decay/demoralization come about because of stressors and not be a stressor itself? What would those stressors be?

Can seeing and identifying "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization" all around you be used to make predictions of future population numbers? You are saying that is the stressor causing the population of white Americans to go down. Were you able to predict on this forum that the population of white Americans would fall almost 10% from 2010 to 2020 according to the Census numbers? Are you able to predict what the population of white Americans will be in the future out to 2030 and maybe even further by looking at "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization" and measuring it in some way?

I'd have to do some research, but if I were interested in it, I might be able to - the answer is yes, it is quite likely I would be able to. But I don't know.

The wealth effect is primarily one of "getting to the women" since they are the gatekeepers. Women eat up propaganda and are overwhelmingly social conformists, so if you get to them, you'll get the decrease in population.

[Cool Breeze]

** 17-Aug-2021 World View: The mood in South Korea and Taiwan

> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml

> It's from the official mouth piece of the CCP but the above linked
> article shows how the Afghan situation is being interpreted by
> players on the global stage. Also some commentators have noted
> (with naive shock) the "When not If" tone the article takes
> regarding military action to reintegrate Taiwan.

> Today, my manager (I work in Seoul) told me that while watching
> news about the fall of Kabul, she felt that this is what America
> would do to South Korea. That is the mood here now. I can imagine
> the Taiwanese are even more afraid. A few of my co-workers talked
> about this too. They asked me what I thought the Americans would
> do under Biden. I told them I don't know.

> That's the mood here now.

> I wonder if this is what Biden was paid by the Chinese to do? Or
> is this also 4D chess...

It's hard to overestimate the size of the catastrophe unfolding in
Afghanistan, with fallout that will last for years. The catastrophe
was capped off by that ridiculous speech on Monday by the doddering
Bernie, who can barely read a teleprompter.

The stupidity and incompetence of the Biden administration is
enormous. He threw open the southern border with no plan and
disastrous consequences. He closed the Keystone pipeline with no plan
and disastrous consequences. He advocated defunding the police in
multiple cities, with no plan and disastrous consequences. He shut
down Bagram airbase overnight, with no plan and disastrous
consequences. He pulled troops out of Kabul with no plan and
disastrous consequences, requiring him to send back 1000 troops, then
1000 more, then 1000 more, then 1000 more. When he announced 9/11 as
the final withdrawal date, I said he was dumber than a bag of hammers,
and three weeks from now we'll see the consequences -- a likely
resurgence of al-Qaeda celebrating the defeat of the United States
after 20 years inside the American embassy.

On the other hand, there is some leverage to be had. Unlike 20 years
ago, Kabul is a large urban city, with thousands of workers doing
everything from driving buses to teaching to fixing elevators in
government buildings to keeping the electric grid running, and the
Taliban will need international aid to pay for those services. Also,
Afghanistan has water problems and other environment problems,
including those caused by climate change, and they will need
international help with those. China, Russia and Iran will be
offering to provide some of that aid, in return for exploiting
Afghanistan's mineral resources.

So what does this mean for American defense of South Korea and Taiwan?

It would seem that this would indicate that America would not defend
its allies. But actually, it could have the opposite effect. The
Biden administration will not want to have a second black eye, so they
may actually be more likely than previously to provide a defense.

See, when you make solid posts, I always congratulate you. Nicely done.

[Trevor]

I know there's no good solution where Afghanistan's concerned, but I'm thinking about what kind of messages this sends to China. This looks even worse than South Vietnam, with 10,000 Americans trapped, and we have no solid plan to get them out. Much as I disliked Trump, Biden is jumping from one disaster to another. If this is the leader we're going to have facing China, it'd be like the Soviet Union in 1941.

Why would anyone take promises of American protection seriously after this? If I lived in Taiwan, I'd be looking hard at this, wondering if the U.S. would stand up to an expanding, aggressive power. Taiwan could exact a dreadful price on China, but wouldn't be able to hold them off alone. Now I think we'd have to defend them, but the appearance of strength matters as well.

And if I was in China, I see America in retreat across the world. Covid has devastated them, Biden is barely functional and severely compromised, and threats of economic warfare would be enough to prevent them from doing anything but protest. Hitler expected Britain and France to do nothing when he attacked Poland, just as they did nothing for years while he continued to re-arm. (Even then, they didn't do much despite having few troops defending Germany)

[Cool Breeze]

I know there's no good solution where Afghanistan's concerned, but I'm thinking about what kind of messages this sends to China. This looks even worse than South Vietnam, with 10,000 Americans trapped, and we have no solid plan to get them out. Much as I disliked Trump, Biden is jumping from one disaster to another. If this is the leader we're going to have facing China, it'd be like the Soviet Union in 1941.

Why would anyone take promises of American protection seriously after this? If I lived in Taiwan, I'd be looking hard at this, wondering if the U.S. would stand up to an expanding, aggressive power. Taiwan could exact a dreadful price on China, but wouldn't be able to hold them off alone. Now I think we'd have to defend them, but the appearance of strength matters as well.

And if I was in China, I see America in retreat across the world. Covid has devastated them, Biden is barely functional and severely compromised, and threats of economic warfare would be enough to prevent them from doing anything but protest. Hitler expected Britain and France to do nothing when he attacked Poland, just as they did nothing for years while he continued to re-arm. (Even then, they didn't do much despite having few troops defending Germany)

Why were we ever under the delusion that Biden ever was, or could have been, a "leader". It's playing into the narrative that the USA is a Constitutional Republic, when in reality it has been a Banana Republic for the better part of my lifetime at this point. Old people ignoring that this isn't Dwight D. Eisenhower's America, or thinking that "it still could be, or it could comeback/be restored" are actually part of the problem at this point. Yes, it's sad.

[Guest]

This could be a longer answer, but it is most simply stated by saying "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization".

It's a numbers issue largely too. The absolute loss will be enormous for the bigger populations, but it will also be higher percentage wise; that's because when you consider the move down in numbers (already closer to bottom of the barrel survival states population wise) there eventually is a buoying effect that is not there at the crazy high trad/subsistence living paradigm of poorer nations, as they move down from crazy high population levels.

Capiche?

I think you would say wealth can go hand in hand with spiritual decay/demoralization, but it doesn't have to. In the case of white Americans in recent decades, it seems to have gone hand in hand.

By itself, I would not think of wealth as a stressor. It can mostly be the opposite. Wealth can provide relief from stress, but not always. Wouldn't spiritual decay/demoralization come about because of stressors and not be a stressor itself? What would those stressors be?

Can seeing and identifying "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization" all around you be used to make predictions of future population numbers? You are saying that is the stressor causing the population of white Americans to go down. Were you able to predict on this forum that the population of white Americans would fall almost 10% from 2010 to 2020 according to the Census numbers? Are you able to predict what the population of white Americans will be in the future out to 2030 and maybe even further by looking at "Wealth and spiritual decay/demoralization" and measuring it in some way?

I'd have to do some research, but if I were interested in it, I might be able to - the answer is yes, it is quite likely I would be able to. But I don't know.

The wealth effect is primarily one of "getting to the women" since they are the gatekeepers. Women eat up propaganda and are overwhelmingly social conformists, so if you get to them, you'll get the decrease in population.

It would be interesting to see the results of your research and that of others on this forum. I've been reading old posts here and have yet to run across any posts which predicted this very large decrease in the white population in America, and all of that decrease was pre-COVID. I'm wondering what that means. Did other huge empires like the British Empire experience this same sort of huge decline in their core populations as their empires retreated? Or were the women in those empires not ones to "eat up propaganda" and they didn't "get to them'? Has a decrease like this happened during previous generational dynamics periods? I'm wondering if the next 10 years will bring an even greater decline and what that may mean.

[thomasglee]

Did other huge empires like the British Empire experience this same sort of huge decline in their core populations as their empires retreated? Or were the women in those empires not ones to "eat up propaganda" and they didn't "get to them'? Has a decrease like this happened during previous generational dynamics periods? I'm wondering if the next 10 years will bring an even greater decline and what that may mean.

Yes, and the prime example of this is the Roman Empire.

[John]

** 18-Aug-2021 World View: Birth rate

> It would be interesting to see the results of your research and
> that of others on this forum. I've been reading old posts here
> and have yet to run across any posts which predicted this very
> large decrease in the white population in America, and all of that
> decrease was pre-COVID. I'm wondering what that means. Did other
> huge empires like the British Empire experience this same sort of
> huge decline in their core populations as their empires retreated?
> Or were the women in those empires not ones to "eat up propaganda"
> and they didn't "get to them'? Has a decrease like this happened
> during previous generational dynamics periods? I'm wondering if
> the next 10 years will bring an even greater decline and what that
> may mean.

I don't know the direct answer to your question, but I do know that
the birth rate has been declining generally, as couples are less
willing to have babies after the financial crisis and the threatening
geopolitical situation. What I don't know is whether this decline in
birth rates is just for whites, or for blacks and latinos as well. If
it's just whites, that would explain the decreasing percentage of
whites. Immigration could also be a factor.

This decline in birth rate also happened as World War II approached,
and then there was a huge Baby Boom when the war ended. Once again, I
don't know if the postwar baby boom was just whites, or whether it
applied to all races, but if you check that out it could provide some
clues to what's happening now.

[Burner Prime]

** 18-Aug-2021 World View: Birth rate

> It would be interesting to see the results of your research and
> that of others on this forum. I've been reading old posts here
> and have yet to run across any posts which predicted this very
> large decrease in the white population in America, and all of that
> decrease was pre-COVID. I'm wondering what that means. Did other
> huge empires like the British Empire experience this same sort of
> huge decline in their core populations as their empires retreated?
> Or were the women in those empires not ones to "eat up propaganda"
> and they didn't "get to them'? Has a decrease like this happened
> during previous generational dynamics periods? I'm wondering if
> the next 10 years will bring an even greater decline and what that
> may mean.

I don't know the direct answer to your question, but I do know that
the birth rate has been declining generally, as couples are less
willing to have babies after the financial crisis and the threatening
geopolitical situation. What I don't know is whether this decline in
birth rates is just for whites, or for blacks and latinos as well. If
it's just whites, that would explain the decreasing percentage of
whites. Immigration could also be a factor.

This decline in birth rate also happened as World War II approached,
and then there was a huge Baby Boom when the war ended. Once again, I
don't know if the postwar baby boom was just whites, or whether it
applied to all races, but if you check that out it could provide some
clues to what's happening now.

Probably the biggest driver in the decline of birthrates is an increase in the standard of living. Probably has little to do with "propaganda". Hans Rosling explored the stats here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w

It affects all races and is not limited to whites, though may appear to because generally they have more wealth and higher standard of living than non-whites (excluding Asians).

This can be observed among Central and South American immigrants into the US as well. It will be a very long time before American standards of living fall to that of Latin America though WWIII may bring it about sooner.