Generational Dynamics World View News

[Cool Breeze]

Evergrande.

How strong is the Chinese economy, really? I don't know what to believe anymore.

Would a disorderly collapse of Evergrande slow or spur a war?

Financial/economic collapse leading to war. Probably going to happen quickly once it starts falling apart.

Yes, it's the timing part once again that's the hard part here.

[Guest]

** 14-Sep-2021 World View: Milley story

> John, what do you think of this Milley story?

From Trump ultra-haters like Woodward and Costa, based on reports from
ultra-Trump-hating CNN? I'll wait for more evidence.

The Whitehouse and Joint Chiefs are all circling the wagons and spinning but not denying. Does this count as more anything?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sho ... ieved-duty

[John]

** 15-Sep-2021 World View: Milley going rogue

> John, what do you think of this Milley story?

> ** 14-Sep-2021 World View: Milley story

> From Trump ultra-haters like Woodward and Costa, based on reports
> from ultra-Trump-hating CNN? I'll wait for more evidence.

> The Whitehouse and Joint Chiefs are all circling the wagons and
> spinning but not denying. Does this count as more anything?

> https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sho ... ieved-duty

• At this afternoon's press conference, Pentagon spokesman John
  Kirby said that if a Joint Chief had a consequential conversation with
  a foreign general, then the President should be informed. However, he
  said that he cannot comment on specific details in the previous
  administration.
• Bob Woodward, who has a reputation for making things up to sell
  books, claims that Milley thought that Trump was unstable, and so he
  went around the president and had a consequential conversation with
  his Chinese counterpart, wherein he promised that China would be
  forewarned in case of a military threat.
• According to the reporting, which is somewhat vague, Milley was
  motivated by hysterical screaming by Nancy Pelosi who demanded that
  Milley take the nuclear "football" away from Trump so that he couldn't
  start a nuclear war.
• As a result, Milley spoke to other Pentagon generals and demanded
  that he be put into the chain of command in case there was a threat of
  a military strike. Milley is an advisor to the president, but is not
  in the chain of command.
• Trump says that if this story about Milley is actually true, then
  Milley committed treason.
• There is no evidence at all that Trump was unstable, or that he
  was planning a nuclear strike on China to get even for losing the
  election. That whole concept is completely absurd, and doesn't make
  sense. Trump left office on January 20, without incident.

Woodward, Pelosi and Milley were/are all vitriolic Trump haters, and
Pelosi is a particularly hysterical and unstable Trump hater.
Remember when she tore up Trump's state of the union address as he was
delivering it. Pelosi is a total shithead.

If Woodward and Trump are telling the truth, and Kirby is correct,
then Milley has committed a crime.

In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that Woodward is lying (as
usual) to sell books, or at least took fairly standard events and blew
them way out of proportion for his book, and that Milley showed bad
judgment but did not commit a crime.

[John]

16-Sep-21 World View -- China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability

Will there be a government bailout?

** 16-Sep-21 World View -- China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210916



Contents:
China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability
Will there be a government bailout?
China Huarong Asset Management bailout
Generational Dynamics analysis
China's Macau crackdown and contagion to United States


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Evergrande Group, Ponzi scheme,
Taiping Rebellion
Huarong Asset Management, Citic Group, China Insurance Investment,
China Life Asset Management, China Cinda Asset Management,
Sino-Ocean Capital Holding, Japan, Taiwan, Macau, Las Vegas,
Sands China, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment,
SJM Holdings, Melco Entertainment, MGM China

[Navigator]

A couple of months ago, I posted at length regarding the deficient military abilities of senior leadership of the US military. What happened in Kabul is verification of what I wrote. If not, at a bare minimum, the heads of the military and the SecDef should have threatened to resign once they were told what plan was going to be adopted. Then they should have resigned rather than have actually participated in the execution of the most shameful display of incompetence by the US since Vietnam (and in numerous ways, what happened was far far worse).

When the war starts, we are going to see incompetence on a scale not seen in the US since the start of the US Civil War. We are talking McDowell/McLellin/Burnside/Halleck bad (not to mention the subordinate Corps commanders of the Army of the Potomac).

But the Chinese are not exactly led by RE Lee and Stonewall Jackson. In fact, their commanders are probably just as bad as ours, theirs also being political appointees and those that excel at office politics rather than strategy and tactics.

Unfortunately, we will suffer losses far in excess of a Kasserine Pass long before the situation is sorted out.

You exaggerate. While our generals could always be better, there has been some 30 years of constant warfare to provide experience up and down the ladder. Our lamest generals are cowardly responding to political pressures but that do not necessarily mean that they are bad at their job.

China is in much worse shape with very few leaders having any combat experience. The PLAN is even worse since there are political officers who can and do countermand the actual leader's orders while reporting up is frequently falsified.

I don't think anyone could exagerate how big a fiasco (militarily as well as diplomatically) the Kabul/AFG withdraw was.

Also, I agree with you that as bad as our generals are, the PLA (and the PLAN) are much worse. After they lose the advantage of surprise and lose a lot of their somewhat trained soldiers, they will revert back to using human wave tactics with barely trained conscripts. They care nothing for the lives of their people or soldiers/sailors.

[Navigator]

16-Sep-21 World View -- China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability

Will there be a government bailout?

** 16-Sep-21 World View -- China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210916

This could be the first collapse in the Chinese economic house of cards. The whole shadow banking system and "wealth management products" they sell (read "ponzi scheme investments) are increasingly strained to the breaking point.

It has been my belief that an economic crisis of some sort would cause the Chinese to commence hostilities much earlier than they had planned in order to divert internal pressure on the CCP.

[John]

** 15-Sep-2021 World View: Is this the big one?

> 16-Sep-21 World View -- China's Evergrande financial crisis
> threatens China's financial stability

> Will there be a government bailout?

> This could be the first collapse in the Chinese economic house of
> cards. The whole shadow banking system and "wealth management
> products" they sell (read "ponzi scheme investments) are
> increasingly strained to the breaking point.

> It has been my belief that an economic crisis of some sort would
> cause the Chinese to commence hostilities much earlier than they
> had planned in order to divert internal pressure on the
> CCP.

Yeah, I agree. We keep waiting for the "big one," the event that will
trigger the expected global financial crisis and WW III. Maybe this
is it, or maybe we'll have to wait until the next one.

[FullMoon]

Whether this is it or not, it's hard to believe we're either witnessing it or going to in short order. Like getting a diagnosis of terminal degree if we're not properly situated

[Guest]

This morning my manager told me that her daughter's high school told the class that North Korea is not the problem, America is. A lot of people in South Korea are as crazy as the leftists BLM people in America. Korean politics are divisive.

President Moon met with some of his CCP friends yesterday. Does he really think that he can cut a deal with Chinese communists?

Korea should moved back towards Taiwan.

[Cool Breeze]

Whether this is it or not, it's hard to believe we're either witnessing it or going to in short order. Like getting a diagnosis of terminal degree if we're not properly situated

Ok, when is "short order"?