Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 30-Sep-2021 World View: Jamie Dimon's Potential Catastrophe

Dimon says JPMorgan preparing for 'potentially catastrophic' US credit default
> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the multinational
> investment bank has started to prepare for a "potentially
> catastrophic" situation in which the United States could default
> on the national debt.

> https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5743 ... it-default

> Oh, this is just great.

> John, do you still think the US dollar will be the last man
> standing? Is gold still a bad investment?

The Democrats are a party in crisis, with a mentally deficient leader
who is responsible for one catastrophe after another -- the
Afghanistan catastrophe, the open borders debacle, mass slaughter of
blacks on the streets -- and who are badly split over trying to
implement the next catastrophe, their multi-multi-trillion dollar
Democrat fantasy ("reconciliation") bill.

Because of the gargantuan size of the fantasy bill, they would like
for the Republicans to have skin in the game in paying for it
(pretending to pay for it). The Republicans have been unanimous in
saying that the Democrats can raise the debt ceiling on their own,
with no Republiclan involvement. The Democrats know that, but they
also know that then they would get the entire blame as the midterms
election approach.

Many Democrats believe that failing to pass the fantasy bill will be a
political disaster, since it would just be one more failure on top of
all the others. Getting the debt ceiling raised is a prerequisite,
since the government would have to be allowed to borrow trillions of
dollars. So they're resorting to hysterial threats to get the
Republicans to cooperate.

So first off, there is no realistic possibility for a debt defuault
for a long time, even if the debt ceiling isn't raised, since
statutory debt payments can be met using continuing tax revenues, even
if the government can't borrow any more money.

Second, even if the government did default on some statutory debt, it
wouldn't affect the value of the dollar, just as you missing a credit
card payment doesn't affect the value of the dollar.

Third, Jamie Dimon has joined the hysteria because he stands to gain a
great deal politically and financially if the debt ceiling is raised,
and the fantasy bill is passed. So his remarks are just more verbal
garbage from politicians.

As for gold, it's in an asset bubble, just like the stock market and
the bond market. The long-term trend value of gold is around $500 an
ounce, but if the bubble bursts then its value will overshoot its
trend value and reach $100-200 per oz -- which is where it was around
2000.

I believe that most (or all) of the members of this forum agree that
we're headed for a major financial crisis. When that happens, I
expect stock prices to crash, bond prices to crash, and gold prices to
crash. I expect the strongest asset to be cash (the dollar).

That will be a "potential catastrophe," but not the one that Jamie
Dimon would like. We'll also be at war with China, and probably none
of this will matter.

[Guest]

We'll also be at war with China, and probably none
of this will matter.

And there you have it.

Sell gold, buy lead.

[John]

** 30-Sep-2021 World View: Top military leaders throw Biden under the bus

In an interview on ABC News in August, president Joe Biden was asked
where the top generals had recommended leaving 2,500 troops in
Afghanistan. Biden said, "No one said that to me that I can recall."

However, three top generals testifying before Congress on Wednesday
all said that they had repeatedly expressed the need for 2,500 troops
to remain, and that this view had been conveyed forcefully to Biden.

Biden's claim that he couldn't "recall" anyone saying that raises the
question of whether he really didn't remember, or if he's lying.
Either of these has serious consequences, in view of the outcome of
the Afghanistan disaster.

A number of Republicans, as well as some Democrats, are furious that
nobody in the Biden administration is taking responsibility for the
debacle. It seems pretty clear that the responsibility lies with
Biden himself, who ignored military advice and demanded the
accelerated evacuation for political reasons, leading to the disaster.
But Biden is hiding out, and refusing to talk to anyone about the
debacle, hoping that if he ignores it, then the country will move on
and forget about it. This does not seem likely.

Many members of Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, say that
they are receiving calls American citizens in Afghanistan wanting to
get out. This is going to be a major political issue in the next few
months, or until it's resolved in some way.

-- White House says Biden advisers were split on Afghanistan
recommendations
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... fghanistan
(The Hill, 28-Sep-2021)

[Cool Breeze]

** 30-Sep-2021 World View: Jamie Dimon's Potential Catastrophe

Dimon says JPMorgan preparing for 'potentially catastrophic' US credit default
> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the multinational
> investment bank has started to prepare for a "potentially
> catastrophic" situation in which the United States could default
> on the national debt.

> https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5743 ... it-default

> Oh, this is just great.

> John, do you still think the US dollar will be the last man
> standing? Is gold still a bad investment?

The Democrats are a party in crisis, with a mentally deficient leader
who is responsible for one catastrophe after another -- the
Afghanistan catastrophe, the open borders debacle, mass slaughter of
blacks on the streets -- and who are badly split over trying to
implement the next catastrophe, their multi-multi-trillion dollar
Democrat fantasy ("reconciliation") bill.

Because of the gargantuan size of the fantasy bill, they would like
for the Republicans to have skin in the game in paying for it
(pretending to pay for it). The Republicans have been unanimous in
saying that the Democrats can raise the debt ceiling on their own,
with no Republiclan involvement. The Democrats know that, but they
also know that then they would get the entire blame as the midterms
election approach.

Many Democrats believe that failing to pass the fantasy bill will be a
political disaster, since it would just be one more failure on top of
all the others. Getting the debt ceiling raised is a prerequisite,
since the government would have to be allowed to borrow trillions of
dollars. So they're resorting to hysterial threats to get the
Republicans to cooperate.

So first off, there is no realistic possibility for a debt defuault
for a long time, even if the debt ceiling isn't raised, since
statutory debt payments can be met using continuing tax revenues, even
if the government can't borrow any more money.

Second, even if the government did default on some statutory debt, it
wouldn't affect the value of the dollar, just as you missing a credit
card payment doesn't affect the value of the dollar.

Third, Jamie Dimon has joined the hysteria because he stands to gain a
great deal politically and financially if the debt ceiling is raised,
and the fantasy bill is passed. So his remarks are just more verbal
garbage from politicians.

As for gold, it's in an asset bubble, just like the stock market and
the bond market. The long-term trend value of gold is around $500 an
ounce, but if the bubble bursts then its value will overshoot its
trend value and reach $100-200 per oz -- which is where it was around
2000.

I believe that most (or all) of the members of this forum agree that
we're headed for a major financial crisis. When that happens, I
expect stock prices to crash, bond prices to crash, and gold prices to
crash. I expect the strongest asset to be cash (the dollar).

That will be a "potential catastrophe," but not the one that Jamie
Dimon would like. We'll also be at war with China, and probably none
of this will matter.

Good post. Dimon is a corrupt snake, just as you point out, and it is worth noting both his ethnicity and who he married. Totally predictable.

Cash will be good to be in, for a while, but once again, the strongest asset will be ... YES, you know it. Bitcoin.

[thomasglee]

Cash will be good to be in, for a while, but once again, the strongest asset will be ... YES, you know it. Bitcoin.

Yes, cuz you know, when the sh*t is falling down all around you, all you got to do is pick up your smartphone and buy a coke.

[thomasglee]

We'll also be at war with China, and probably none
of this will matter.

And there you have it.

Sell gold, buy lead.

Beans and bullets will go the furthest.

[Cool Breeze]

As I said long ago, you can have some of all of the above and be protected. The problem with this place for a long time is that there is almost a desire for the worst case scenario that it gets somewhat unreasonable.

Being prepared for the really bad is one thing, and to be honest, the way most of the posters on here act like, it won't even matter that someone prepares they think it's gonna be so bad. All the more reason to have bitcoin, which is amazing/best asset in a bad (but not mad max) scenario.

[Navigator]

Dimon says JPMorgan preparing for 'potentially catastrophic' US credit default

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the multinational investment bank has started to prepare for a "potentially catastrophic" situation in which the United States could default on the national debt.

Oh, this is just great.

John, do you still think the US dollar will be the last man standing? Is gold still a bad investment?


https://thehill.com/policy/finance/574 ... it-default

The problem for most people is that they think that they will be able to convert whatever currency or precious metal or bitcoin to whatever product or service they will need/want in the future. This is thinking that things in the future will somehow be the similar to the way they are today.

The problem is that goods, commodities, and even many services will not be available at ANY price (and with any kind of currency) for extended periods because of disruptions to production and the supply chain. This is already happening, and it is happening BEFORE an economic meltdown or a major war.

The book goes into all of this in detail. GET A COPY.

[thomasglee]

The problem for most people is that they think that they will be able to convert whatever currency or precious metal or bitcoin to whatever product or service they will need/want in the future. This is thinking that things in the future will somehow be the similar to the way they are today.

The problem is that goods, commodities, and even many services will not be available at ANY price (and with any kind of currency) for extended periods because of disruptions to production and the supply chain. This is already happening, and it is happening BEFORE an economic meltdown or a major war.

The book goes into all of this in detail. GET A COPY.

^^^^THIS^^^^

Most truly have not considered how bad things will get. Your book does a good job (for me at least) of stoking consideration about what life will look like during and post-collapse.

[Burner Prime]

** 30-Sep-2021 World View: Jamie Dimon's Potential Catastrophe

Dimon says JPMorgan preparing for 'potentially catastrophic' US credit default
> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the multinational
> investment bank has started to prepare for a "potentially
> catastrophic" situation in which the United States could default
> on the national debt.

> https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5743 ... it-default

> Oh, this is just great.

> John, do you still think the US dollar will be the last man
> standing? Is gold still a bad investment?

....

As for gold, it's in an asset bubble, just like the stock market and
the bond market. The long-term trend value of gold is around $500 an
ounce, but if the bubble bursts then its value will overshoot its
trend value and reach $100-200 per oz -- which is where it was around
2000.

I believe that most (or all) of the members of this forum agree that
we're headed for a major financial crisis. When that happens, I
expect stock prices to crash, bond prices to crash, and gold prices to
crash. I expect the strongest asset to be cash (the dollar).

That will be a "potential catastrophe," but not the one that Jamie
Dimon would like. We'll also be at war with China, and probably none
of this will matter.

It has taken me a long time but I have come to the same conclusion about the valuation of gold as you, though my number is around $585. I got this number by doing what the goldbugs recommend: track prices in terms of gold. The baseline date for "fair value" of several key things like a house, wages, car, and the S&P for me was 1970. This is when we were still on the gold standard and things were fairly valued for the most part.

So in 1970 the median house cost about 600oz of gold. Today it is around 200oz. My calculations yield an expected gold price today of $585. You get a similar number using other measures like wages, cars, S&P. So indeed gold is overpriced. Who knows what the reason are, fear of inflation, governments accumulating it, etc.

Now silver is another story. It is slightly undervalued. Around 13,700oz of Ag would purchase a house in 1970, while today it is around 16,000oz. Expected Ag price is around $26.