Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

US TROOPS IN TAIWAN

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-troops ... 1633614043

TO CLARIFY: Those troops have actually been in Taiwan since at least late 2020, if not earlier.

[DaKardii]

CCP claims that American troop presence in Taiwan is an "invasion," threatens retaliatory airstrikes

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... -in-taiwan

[xeraphim1x]

I was reading an article on another site which brought up something I really hadn't considered. This would be in relation to the news that China has been adding additional ICBM silos.

As we know, the US has two site for Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) missiles which are intended to stop strikes from a rogue state. There are currently 44 interceptors in total. Not too scary for China/Russia, right? Well, it's not GBI that's really the issue even though the US could probably afford to buy more of them than China/Russia could buy additional ICBMs. {As a side note, the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) is in development and one of the ideas is to have it lift multiple kill vehicles on each booster. Instead of one KKV per interceptor, you might get 10 of them. Nifty, huh? }

No, the real problem is the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense System and the missiles used with it. The SM-3 has been demonstrated as being able to hit an incoming warhead. Please note the 2008 destruction of a satellite traveling at ICBM+ speeds. And that was with the SM-3 Block IA which has been superseded by Block IB and now II-A. Block IIA missiles have successfully intercepted both ICBM and SLBM targets. Potentially useful in the future is the block IB version of the SM-6 which would, admittedly, have less range, but be notably less expensive.

Why is this a problem for China/Russia? As of 2017 there were 33 ships equipped with AEGIS BMD with another 1-2 ships rolling off the lines every year. By 2040 there could be 70-80 such vessels. That's not including other countries such as Japan which already has 4 ships and another 2 being built. We don't know how many SM-3 each will carry, but Burke class destroyers have 90+ VLS cells and USN production orders in 2016 was estimated to be 350 block IIA. Now, USN ships are normally dispersed all around the world, but they do spend a lot of time in their home ports. Just three different locations, one East Coast, One West coast, one Gulf coast, would provide protection for the entire continental United States. Much of the US East of the Mississippi would have double coverage while part of the Mid West would have triple coverage. Hawaii has an experimental AEGIS Ashore site which could be brought up to full operational status fairly quickly. (Japan was going to build such sites, but due to civilian complaints they'll build AEGIS destroyers instead.) Within 10-15 years the US could have 400-700 interceptors in/near US territory or capable of being moved there quickly. (Ships are relatively faster to relocate than silos).

Huh. That's something that doesn't get much air time. But, you might say, Russia and China have thousands of warheads and can easily swamp and protection the US might put up. Well, maybe not. The New Start treaty brings the US and Russia down to about 1,500 warheads total. Of those, you'll always have to assume that some just won't work. Missiles are never perfect; Russian ones even less so. If you figure 50% is a reasonable figure, that's getting close to 1:1 with the number of interceptors. Chinese missiles are most likely worse than Russian ones and China has fewer than Russia. In fact, it's entirely possible that the US and Japan could soon have more interceptors than China has deployable platforms.

China has started MIRVing DF-5 ICBMs as a way to counter this capability and it appears they are both building additional SSBNs and additional silos for ICBMs. Russia seems to be hoping that hypersonic missiles will serve as a sufficient deterrent; it's unknown how well SM-3/SM-6 will work against those. The question may end up being: Can the US/allies build interceptor missiles cheaper and in greater numbers than adversaries can build ICBMs/other deliver systems? SM-3 is about $12 million a piece but it really isn't in mass production. A Minuteman III has a modern cost of about $20 million though the new US ICBM (GBSD) is expected to be more expensive. Chinese/Russian ICBMs may be cheaper, or may be equivalent in cost.

I'm not positing that the US is or could be invulnerable to nuclear attack from China/Russia, but it appears that there could be enough ambiguity than those states might seriously question whether their arsenals would be sufficient to penetrate a US shield. As the same time, China has no ABM defenses while Russia is limited to the A-135 system which defend only Moscow plus whatever abilities S-500 might have, when if ever becomes operational. It is something to think about since US foes undoubtedly are.

[Guest]

No, he's a feeble minded conspiracy theorist who is quick to side against his own country.

And FM, you are bogged down in Mad Max fantasies. It's guys like you who always go tits up in a crisis.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Yes, there ARE people who use their distrust of the government as a stepping stone towards outright siding with the enemy. I've warned about such people on several occasions in the past. I've condemned them, and I condemn them again.

Yet, that does NOT mean that distrusting the government automatically makes one a traitor by default. If you truly believe that IS the case, then it is YOU who are the useful idiot.

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth--again. You are talker, not a man of action. You will be philosophizing about everything until you get punched in the face by:

1) another American
2) a Chinese soldier

You are a useless.

[Guest]

We have no government. We have controllers. The more you keep thinking the way you think, the more they will control you. I've realized it's time to bow out of the game. I fly as low under the radar as I can, while staying put in my rural homestead, preparing for what's coming. If resisting mandates and other control mechanism is siding against the country, then lump me in with him.

You're going to hold out in your Texas shack in the desert all by your lonesome? This is BS.

No man is an island.

Your wife (if you have one) and your daughters (if you any) will not fare well under occupation. Your end will come much quicker. Probably.

If your country has abandoned you, you best leave and find another one rather than sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Choose one side or the other, but fight. Weasels are universally hated.

I hate cowards and traitors.

[thomasglee]

We have no government. We have controllers. The more you keep thinking the way you think, the more they will control you. I've realized it's time to bow out of the game. I fly as low under the radar as I can, while staying put in my rural homestead, preparing for what's coming. If resisting mandates and other control mechanism is siding against the country, then lump me in with him.

You're going to hold out in your Texas shack in the desert all by your lonesome? This is BS.

No man is an island.

Your wife (if you have one) and your daughters (if you any) will not fare well under occupation. Your end will come much quicker. Probably.

If your country has abandoned you, you best leave and find another one rather than sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Choose one side or the other, but fight. Weasels are universally hated.

I hate cowards and traitors.

No sir, I live in a community. A community where I grew up. I've known many of the people here my entire life. So I'm not alone. Plus I have my God and my family. You're the coward that needs others to fight your battles for you. I was an infantryman. I've seen war. I've experienced death up front and close. You sir, have no point of view that holds any validity with me. You've made assumptions that you know nothing about. You are the fool.

[Guest]

We have no government. We have controllers. The more you keep thinking the way you think, the more they will control you. I've realized it's time to bow out of the game. I fly as low under the radar as I can, while staying put in my rural homestead, preparing for what's coming. If resisting mandates and other control mechanism is siding against the country, then lump me in with him.

You're going to hold out in your Texas shack in the desert all by your lonesome? This is BS.

No man is an island.

Your wife (if you have one) and your daughters (if you any) will not fare well under occupation. Your end will come much quicker. Probably.

If your country has abandoned you, you best leave and find another one rather than sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Choose one side or the other, but fight. Weasels are universally hated.

I hate cowards and traitors.

No sir, I live in a community. A community where I grew up. I've known many of the people here my entire life. So I'm not alone. Plus I have my God and my family. You're the coward that needs others to fight your battles for you. I was an infantryman. I've seen war. I've experienced death up front and close. You sir, have no point of view that holds any validity with me. You've made assumptions that you know nothing about. You are the fool.

I've known war too. So fuck you.

[Guest]

You're going to hold out in your Texas shack in the desert all by your lonesome? This is BS.

No man is an island.

Your wife (if you have one) and your daughters (if you any) will not fare well under occupation. Your end will come much quicker. Probably.

If your country has abandoned you, you best leave and find another one rather than sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Choose one side or the other, but fight. Weasels are universally hated.

I hate cowards and traitors.

No sir, I live in a community. A community where I grew up. I've known many of the people here my entire life. So I'm not alone. Plus I have my God and my family. You're the coward that needs others to fight your battles for you. I was an infantryman. I've seen war. I've experienced death up front and close. You sir, have no point of view that holds any validity with me. You've made assumptions that you know nothing about. You are the fool.

I've known war too. So fuck you.

Let add that after two wars I have a damaged hand and knee, and brain damage has left me partially blind. AND I still won't hide when the Chinese attack.

FUCK YOU!

[Cool Breeze]

I'm not positing that the US is or could be invulnerable to nuclear attack from China/Russia, but it appears that there could be enough ambiguity than those states might seriously question whether their arsenals would be sufficient to penetrate a US shield. As the same time, China has no ABM defenses while Russia is limited to the A-135 system which defend only Moscow plus whatever abilities S-500 might have, when if ever becomes operational. It is something to think about since US foes undoubtedly are.

Is the idea that they intercept and blow up ICBMs over the Pacific Ocean?

[Cool Breeze]

This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe

Summary please, I can't sit through it all right now.