Generational Dynamics World View News

[Another Guest]

So attacks on Ukraine, Taiwan, and America at the same time. And China and Russia except to survive this?

There is no helping stupid.

[Tom Mazanec]

They used to say America had enough nukes to destroy the world twenty times over.
Since then we have reduced them by an order of magnitude.
So we still have enough to destroy the world twice?

[Cool Breeze]

I've asked it before but we should return to the subject. How many more years have to pass before anyone here (whoever wants to answer) will be shocked that nothing HUGE (crisis war) has happened?

[tim]

I've asked it before but we should return to the subject. How many more years have to pass before anyone here (whoever wants to answer) will be shocked that nothing HUGE (crisis war) has happened?

If nothing happens by 2030 I would reconsider my views. 2025 is the 80 year mark for us and as we get closer things seem to be accelerating. If the crisis war doesn't start by 2030 that doesn't necessarily mean the theory isn't true. Maybe technology and central banks do have an effect on the cycle and would push things back farther.

China's 80 year mark is 2029.

From John's book:

In an analysis of over 100 crisis wars in nations around the world throughout history, the number of years from the end of one crisis war to the beginning of the next varied from 40 to 117 years, according to the following table:

Fraction
# years of total
------- --------
0- 40 0%
41- 49 11%
50- 59 33%
60- 69 25%
70- 79 16%
80- 89 4%
90- 99 6%
100-117 5%
These results, along with the theoretical explanation, are extremely significant, and unfortunately little understood.

[Cool Breeze]

Interesting that the cluster of most common year period is from 50-80, and most fall in the first 20 years of that cluster.

[thomasglee]

I've asked it before but we should return to the subject. How many more years have to pass before anyone here (whoever wants to answer) will be shocked that nothing HUGE (crisis war) has happened?

2026 - 2033

I full well expect a complete and total collapse by NLT 2033.

[FullMoon]

I've asked it before but we should return to the subject. How many more years have to pass before anyone here (whoever wants to answer) will be shocked that nothing HUGE (crisis war) has happened?

The concept involved is worth answering although the phrasing of the question is....
When the march is away from rather than towards war. Culturally, socially and between nations. I bet most people have the experience of increasing conflict, stress and difficulty. When the stress level goes down rather than up. We could still be waiting for a while but probably not.

[FullMoon]

** 15-Nov-2021 World View: Virtual Biden - Xi meeting today

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are going to have a "virtual summit meeting"
later today.

It's going to be a zoom call, and what I find really startling is
that it's supposed last for "several hours." What the hell
are they going to be talking about for several hours.

According to press reports, tariffs and supply chain issues will not
be major subjects of discussion. Nor are they going to discuss human
rights issues, like the forced sterilization and enslavement of
Uighurs or the crushing of democracy in Hong Kong.

Instead, the highest priority will be "rising tensions" over Taiwan.

So what are they going to discuss when they talk about Taiwan for
"several hours"? We already know what China's position is -- that
Taiwan is part of China's "core."

What will Biden say? Will he make concessions? Will he be
confrontational? Either of those approaches is potentially explosive.

According to one unnamed administration official:

> "We want to make clear our intentions and our
> priorities to avoid misunderstandings. The president will also
> make clear that we want to build common sense guardrails to avoid
> miscalculation or misunderstanding. That's how you sustain
> responsible competition."

It's hard to say what these "guardrails" will be, given that China has
been launching increasingly belligerent military exercises in Taiwan's
airspace in recent months.

It's worth noting that the situation on the China-India border has
also been worsening in recent months, as China has been massing troops
and equipment on the border near the region of India that China is
claiming. However, it's not expected that Biden and Xi will even
mention this situation.

-- Taiwan in focus at Biden-Xi summit, as tariffs and supply chain
issues take a back seat
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/biden-x ... china.html
(CNBC, 15-Nov-2021)

-- Ministry of External Affairs / Won’t accept Chinese illegal
occupation, says MEA
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 655744.cms
(Times Of India, 12-Nov-2021)

Is there anything we learned from the reporting? Maybe something subtle that hasn't been reported on, or was it just a friendly chat? Thanks for keeping us updated

[Guest]

I've asked it before but we should return to the subject. How many more years have to pass before anyone here (whoever wants to answer) will be shocked that nothing HUGE (crisis war) has happened?

2026 - 2033

I full well expect a complete and total collapse by NLT 2033.

I would be extremely grateful if WW3 were delayed that long. I am looking at spring 2022.

[guest]

If America can wake up from "Wokeness" it may again assert itself for its own national self interest. It may be a while until America decides what it will be in its next iteration. In the meantime, all the authoritarian forces will progress.