** 01-Jan-2022 World View: Suprise Chinese attack on Taiwan
An article published by Memri is a lengthy analysis of the possibility
of a surprise attack on Taiwan by China, possibly this year.
The point of the article is that the Chinese could attack at any time,
and it would be an almost complete surprise to America and the West.
They provide two historical comparisons:
- Japan's 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. This was a complete
surprise to America, even though Japanese media had indicated that
they could attack, and even though Japan made military preparations
for an attack, which Washington was aware of.
- Egypt's 1973 attack on Israel, with the objective of recapturing
Sinai from the Israelis. This was a complete surprise to Israel, even
though Egyptian media had indicated that they could attack, and even
though Egypt made military preparations for an attack, which Israel
was aware of.
Similarly, Chinese media describes the impending attack almost on a
daily basis, and China's military preparations are well-known. The
article makes the point that America may be totally unprepared for a
surprise Chinese attack on Taiwain.
Here is the introduction to the article:
"Senior Chinese personalities, from Xi Jinping down
through Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders and People's
Liberation Army (PLA) commanders, have been reiterating for years
that Taiwan must be reunited with mainland China, and that this
will happen whether by peaceful means or by way of military
action. In recent months, as tensions between Taiwan and China
have risen, the MEMRI Chinese Media Studies Project has found that
these statements have been increasing in frequency and intensity.
These statements have been backed by military preparations, many
of which have been publicized in Chinese media. China has been
openly carrying out military drills simulating an invasion of
Taiwan. Some assess that the naval fleet that China has been
assembling over the past decade, which is larger but less advanced
than the U.S. Navy, is meant to enable China to blockade Taiwan by
sea.
China is also very confident about its ability to stand up to the
U.S. and its allies in the Pacific, as is evident in the way that
Chinese experts describe the balance of power between China and
the U.S. For example, when prominent Chinese Professor Jin Canrong
discussed the possibility of an American reaction to a Chinese
invasion of Taiwan, he said: "We have complete confidence in our
ability to beat any opponent within 1,000 nautical miles,
including the United States and its coalition forces... We have
superior electronic warfare capabilities [and] China leads the
world in medium- and medium-long-range conventional
missiles. There is no force on the planet that can compete with
us. The United States has fallen far behind us [and] we are the
best in hypersonic missiles... The United States has a single 300m
dock that can build one aircraft carrier. How many do we have? 49
of them! We have nothing to be afraid of."
The Chinese statements have been backed by direct provocations,
such as the Chinese air force brashly violating Taiwanese
airspace.
In light of these consistent threats, provocations, and
preparations, which are all being done in the open and which are
presented in this article, could a Chinese surprise attack still
be possible?"
The article goes on at length to provide details of the claims in the
introduction.
"Implications For Taiwan – Is A Chinese Surprise
Attack Still Possible?
While the American defense establishment is probably discussing
internally the possibility of an imminent Chinese surprise attack,
not one voice in the U.S. appears to have publicly assessed that
an attack on Taiwan could take place in the immediate
future. Chinese military expert Wang Yunfei has said that at
attack could take place even tomorrow,[3][3] and Hu Xijin, the
former editor-in-chief of the CCP-run Global Times, has gone even
further and said that the process of reunifying Taiwan with the
mainland has already begun.[4][4]
The absence of such an assessment may be in part because American
analysts underestimate the ideological aspects of Xi Jinping's
need to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. For Xi, reunification
with Taiwan is a matter of honor and prestige, of saving face, and
of preserving China's national dignity. In addition, failure to
reunite Taiwan with China would put the legitimacy of the CCP at
risk.[5][5] While China's red line is Taiwanese independence, and
while the CCP may be willing to tolerate the status quo in the
short term, China's long-term goal is undoubtedly reunification.
This ideological imperative may be powerful enough to overcome
many political, economic, domestic, and international
deterrents. ...
Although the U.S. does not dismiss the possibility of an invasion
of Taiwan, the current political and military assessment is that a
military invasion will only take place after China succeeds in
passing certain critical events in the future, and even then only
if the CCP cannot absorb Taiwan by other means."
The article goes on to analyze China's military and political plans,
and also to analyze America's apparent unwillingness to recognize
what's happening.
The article concludes as follows:
"This article does not pretend to predict whether a
Chinese attack to reunite Taiwan with the mainland will take
place. We don't know that. What we are trying to assert in the
above analysis is that if China does decide to take aggressive
military action to occupy Taiwan, such an attack could still come
as a surprise to the West, even though there is sufficient
information about China's intentions and capabilities.
It may be that any Western assessment, if there is one, about the
unlikelihood of a Chinese attack is guided by the assumption that
the economic consequences for China would be crippling enough to
deter Xi from attacking Taiwan, especially since Taiwan does not
seem to be a territory vital to China's continued existence.
What does not seem to be a sufficient deterrent against China is
America's current military capabilities. China's naval industrial
output surpasses that of America and its allies, and the tyranny
of distance limits the United States' capability to swiftly
respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan."
-- Could A Chinese Attack To Reunite Taiwan With The Mainland Still Be
A Surprise?
https://www.memri.org/reports/could-chi ... e-surprise
(Memri, 30-Dec-2021)
