Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

jmparret wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:31 pm
John wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:52 pm
** 02-Jan-2022 World View: China's short-term problems

In another thread, Trevor recently highlighted some of China's long
term problems, especially demographics.

However, two announcements today indicate that China is also facing
severe short-term problems.

A few hours ago, the bankrupt real estate developer Evergrande
announced that it stopped trading of its shares on the Hong Kong
exchange. No reason was given, but it's believed to be related to
improper use of insider information.

In January alone, Evergrande is facing almost $300 billion on bond and
note payments. But the worst is that $270 billion of that is in
unpaid (deferred) salaries. This is a big deal because the Lunar New
Year celebrations begin in February, and many migrant workers travel
from the big cities back to their homes on the farm, and they want to
be paid before they go. If they don't get paid, then tney may start
to protest and riot, and nothing frightens the Chinese Communists more
than social unrest, since every government coup for millennia began
with social unrest that spread to full scale civil war. If there's no
other solution, than the government may do a u-turn and bail out
Evergrande.

The second announcement today is that the the city of Xian, with a
population of tens of millions, is locked down because of a couple of
hundred WuHu infections. This is the worst outbreak since the Wuhan
outbreak two years ago. There were 122 new cases announced on Sunday,
though this was down from 174 on December 25. Hundreds of cases is a
small number compared to other countries, but China has a "zero covid"
policy, so this is causing some panic. The entire city is locked
down, and people are not permitted to leave their homes for any
reason. Rumors are that people are starving as a result.

What's even more significant is that the Xian breakout is the older
Delta variant. The Omicron variant has reached Hong Kong. If it
reaches mainland China, it could cause serious problems.

Both of these announcements threaten the Beijing Olympics games,
scheduled to begin on February 4. If there is social unrest, or if
the WuHu spreads widely, then the Olympics may be threatened.

** 25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210925


Northern Xi’an, China, has reported a spike in hantavirus-fueled hemorrhagic fever, coinciding with citywide school shutdowns in response to growing numbers of Chinese coronavirus cases.

Hantavirus is a pathogen spread through rats. According to the Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party does not consider it a threat outside rural areas given that the species of mice and rats that spread it are not common in cities. The Times cited experts insisting Chinese people should not panic but noted that the Party is making a concerted effort to promote vaccination against hantavirus.

Local government officials appear to be taking the double threat of hantavirus and Chinese coronavirus seriously, however. The South China Morning Post, citing local media, reported on Monday that Party officials shut down schools from kindergarten through 12th grade “until further notice,” reportedly primarily to stop the spread of coronavirus, as hantavirus spreads through contact with infected rats and mice. The newspaper did note that the school shutdown appeared to be a response to the “double danger of a Covid-19 [Chinese coronavirus] outbreak and deadly haemorrhagic fever cases.”


The other problem in china is the hemorrhagic fever. This could get bad and stop some stuff like olympics and war. It is in the same area as wuhu flu.

Joe
Viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are a group of illnesses caused by four families of viruses. These include the Ebola and Marburg, Lassa fever, and yellow fever viruses. VHFs have common features: they affect many organs, they damage the blood vessels, and they affect the body's ability to regulate itself.


OMG.

So this is what the Chinese are going to hit us with next? This is basically Ebola.

I refuse to believe that this is accidental.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:50 pm
John wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:52 pm
** 02-Jan-2022 World View: China's short-term problems

In another thread, Trevor recently highlighted some of China's long
term problems, especially demographics.

However, two announcements today indicate that China is also facing
severe short-term problems.

A few hours ago, the bankrupt real estate developer Evergrande
announced that it stopped trading of its shares on the Hong Kong
exchange. No reason was given, but it's believed to be related to
improper use of insider information.
China Evergrande gets building demolition order; share trading halted


https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 22-01-03/

HONG KONG, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Cash-strapped property developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) said on Monday it had been ordered to demolish 39 under-construction residential buildings on the resort island of Hainan, as its shares were suspended from trading.

Worse than you thought.
I would imagine many middle class Chinese with 1-3 "investment" apartments are freaking out. If this is where the wave breaks how far will the tide roll back?

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:07 am
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:50 pm
John wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:52 pm
** 02-Jan-2022 World View: China's short-term problems

In another thread, Trevor recently highlighted some of China's long
term problems, especially demographics.

However, two announcements today indicate that China is also facing
severe short-term problems.

A few hours ago, the bankrupt real estate developer Evergrande
announced that it stopped trading of its shares on the Hong Kong
exchange. No reason was given, but it's believed to be related to
improper use of insider information.
China Evergrande gets building demolition order; share trading halted


https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 22-01-03/

HONG KONG, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Cash-strapped property developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) said on Monday it had been ordered to demolish 39 under-construction residential buildings on the resort island of Hainan, as its shares were suspended from trading.

Worse than you thought.
I would imagine many middle class Chinese with 1-3 "investment" apartments are freaking out. If this is where the wave breaks how far will the tide roll back?
The scary possibility is that Evergrande won't be able to pay back Chinese banks; the banks are already carrying massive amounts of bad debt and it's getting harder to cover up the problems. If you have a bank failure or two, that could cause a cascade in the Chinese banking system which isn't as robust as in the West as well as potentially cause other property companies to fail. The national government would probably have to step in to cover billions of dollars of losses, money it can ill afford to spend. And unless it made whole individual investors, you're talking about a massive loss of individual wealth that many plan to use for retirement income. China can also ill afford to have many more impoverished old people needing government support.

I'm not speculating that China is in danger of collapse now or in the next 10-20 years, but the medium term financial future is looking increasingly problematic while the long term is looking bad. Can the CCF make the necessary policy and spending changes needed to ensure stability? I don't know. Is the war road feasible in the coming days? While China's military is improving rapidly, are there the needed funds to keep building and to operate all the new equipment? Perhaps China will become budget constrained before it creates forces strong enough to get what it wants by arms.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2966
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

That's why 2024-26 is the latest it'll take. If they don't implode by then, they'll be right on the precipice and won't hesitate to finally act out.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ge-january

An interesting week by week breakdown of who is owed what by Evergrande, Kaisa, and a few other Chinese land developers for the month of January.

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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4183
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Can the CCF make the necessary policy and spending changes needed to ensure stability? I don't know. Is the war road feasible in the coming days? While China's military is improving rapidly, are there the needed funds to keep building and to operate all the new equipment? Perhaps China will become budget constrained before it creates forces strong enough to get what it wants by arms.
That is assuming 4T wars are started logically. You are like Mr. Spock expecting the Neanderthaloids in The Galileo Seven to act rationally.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:33 am
Can the CCF make the necessary policy and spending changes needed to ensure stability? I don't know. Is the war road feasible in the coming days? While China's military is improving rapidly, are there the needed funds to keep building and to operate all the new equipment? Perhaps China will become budget constrained before it creates forces strong enough to get what it wants by arms.
That is assuming 4T wars are started logically. You are like Mr. Spock expecting the Neanderthaloids in The Galileo Seven to act rationally.
And you seem to be making the assumption that logic and self-interest are thrown out the window in pursuit of... something.

The leaders of China aren't stupid and they really like their positions. Doing something that will deprive them of their comfy jobs and goodies is not something they're going to jump into on a whim. Is there strong domestic pressure for China to go to war? I don't think so. The military is not a highly sought out job in China and the need for skilled personnel is only growing while the utility of peasant cannon-fodder is mostly gone. I believe most Chinese want better living conditions and more cool stuff. Can they be led into supporting war? Maybe. Can the CCP pull that off? Maybe. Can China afford the equipment and upkeep to support a modern military? Maybe. But then again, maybe not.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

https://zeihan.com/a-ukraine-war-and-the-end-of-russia/

A Ukraine War and the End of Russia

An interesting article suggesting that the window of opportunity for Russia to dominate Ukraine is mostly past. In short, the Russian invasion of 2014 actually solidified a Ukrainian identity that mostly didn't exist before that. It also got the Ukrainians to pay some attention to their military. It suggests that Russia could still invade and take over Ukraine, but it would take a lot more time and lead to vastly more casualties for Russia. And after that "victory" it would need to garrison a nation of 45 million people. It also points out the demographic issues Russia is facing where losses among soldier age persons really can't be made up.

It also offers the analysis that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be beneficial to the US. It would tie Russia down in a losing battle to control Ukraine; bleeding it white in an area that isn't very important to the US. And while that's taking place, China is looking at the Russian Far East with calculating eyes. Of course China has its own upcoming demographic and economic problems...

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:08 pm
That's why 2024-26 is the latest it'll take. If they don't implode by then, they'll be right on the precipice and won't hesitate to finally act out.
Call me naive, but I have doubts that the CCP won't have doubts.Xi Jinping is almost 70 and despite the hold on power he has achieved, there are going to be people at lower levels looking up hungrily. Add to that the social instability that we only hear about obliquely and I question whether Xi or others would be interested in foreign adventures.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2966
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:29 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:33 am
Can the CCF make the necessary policy and spending changes needed to ensure stability? I don't know. Is the war road feasible in the coming days? While China's military is improving rapidly, are there the needed funds to keep building and to operate all the new equipment? Perhaps China will become budget constrained before it creates forces strong enough to get what it wants by arms.
That is assuming 4T wars are started logically. You are like Mr. Spock expecting the Neanderthaloids in The Galileo Seven to act rationally.
And you seem to be making the assumption that logic and self-interest are thrown out the window in pursuit of... something.

The leaders of China aren't stupid and they really like their positions. Doing something that will deprive them of their comfy jobs and goodies is not something they're going to jump into on a whim. Is there strong domestic pressure for China to go to war? I don't think so. The military is not a highly sought out job in China and the need for skilled personnel is only growing while the utility of peasant cannon-fodder is mostly gone. I believe most Chinese want better living conditions and more cool stuff. Can they be led into supporting war? Maybe. Can the CCP pull that off? Maybe. Can China afford the equipment and upkeep to support a modern military? Maybe. But then again, maybe not.
Yes, good post.

There's a chance war doesn't break out, it's true. Not that people like hearing that on this site.

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