Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

Are you trying to say that UK is trying to encourage Ukraine to invade Russia like the Greeks invaded Asia Minor (Turkey) post WW1?

[El Cid M]

I think he is saying (from my read of the post) is that the UK is encouraging the Ukrainians to stand up and fight the Russians without really intending to do much to support them beyond a few boxes of rockets.

Or even worse, the British government has not really thought out what it will do in event of a major war. The British government is probably just expecting America to do all of the heavy lifting. If not, Ukraine faces being abandoned.

[Guest]

The centre of gravity of the situation is Ukraine’s capability and intention to resist. Purin would like an invasion that’s a walkover, not one in which desperate, and well-armed Ukrainians fight like cornered tigers. Putin’s own populace don’t have their hearts in this, and it would also be a major loss of face for Putin not to be welcomed by Ukrainians as a liberator (dream on, Vladimir Vladimirovich).

Two cautionary tales: the attempted Soviet invasion of Europe, halted by the Poles (1919-20) and the Russo-Finnish war (1939-40). Add a third: the Sino-Vietnamese war (1989-90). Small countries waging defensive wars against a larger aggressor. In the last two examples, the little guys were forced to an armistice, but not before they had handed the Bear and the Dragon their proverbials on a plate, at the tactical and operational level. Very embarrassing for the Bear and the Dragon.

As for Xi Huang Ti, he’ll offer economic and payments support in aid of Fortress Russia, but that’s about all. As the British defence of the Falklands deterred Soviet adventurism in the early Eighties, so a phalanx-like stance by NATO regarding Ukraine may be to the advantage of Taiwan. I’m sure that’s an unspoken part of the motivation behind recent, decisive US moves.

[Guest]

We are exactly a century on from the catastrophic denouement of the Greek 'megali idea': the conquest of western Anatolia. In the period 1919-21 the UK under the Turkophobe Lloyd George backed those Greek nationalists under Venizelos who felt that Greece needed to recover its west Asiatic 'homelands' lost to the Turks in the 14th and 15th centuries, together with Constantinople. After initial successes the Turks staged a fightback, and the entire Greek population - which had subsisted in Anatolia time of out mind - was forcibly 'exchanged' with the Turkish population in Greece, or else massacred. This disaster, and Britain's active involvement in it, have never been forgotten in Greece. Last year, the retired diplomat, Michael Llewellyn Smith, published the first volume of his biography of Venizelos; it provides background to his classic study of the disaster, 'Ionian Vision' (1973). I should add that the Greek disaster led to the fall of Lloyd George's coalition, with the Chanak incident, which was also a landmark in the independence of the dominions, who refused to back the British government. Lloyd George never held office again.
The UK's encouragement of Ukraine may be defensible on ethical terms, but by encouraging Kiev, it is arguably repeating the mistakes that it made with Greece after 1918. The UK lacks any meaningful strategic reach in eastern Europe, as does the US.
Moreover, although the Sino-Russian combination is not without its weaknesses (Russia's anxieties about a loss of influence to China in central Asia - a fact of vast geopolitical consequence), the Sino-Russian alliance in 2001 (following the rapprochement of 1989), in which Russia acknowledges its status as the junior partner, is very likely unbeatable.

think your comparison to the circumstances around Ukraine and 1920s Anatolia is a bit of a reverse ferret. Both China and Russia have huge demographic environmental and social problems barrelling down the tracks; further in the post petrochem world the West has no interest in Asia other than to trade.

[Guest]

Yes, NATO's determination will be the key here. I can't see Macron's talks with Putin being anything other than a grandstanding irrelevance. The EU has three different factions: those arming Ukraine, those that won't and backsliding Germany that will even resist sanctions. How can the EU ever have one foreign policy?

[Guest]

This. Putin doesn't survive without the support of 1. the security services and 2. the oligarchs.

Spoke to someone who finally got their Visa to visit their Russian homeland. The "peasants" view Putin as a strong leader who cleaned up corruption. (First time poster, long time reader).

[Guest]

This. Putin doesn't survive without the support of 1. the security services and 2. the oligarchs.

Spoke to someone who finally got their Visa to visit their Russian homeland. The "peasants" view Putin as a strong leader who cleaned up corruption. (First time poster, long time reader).

Putin cleaned up corruption?

[Another guest]

This. Putin doesn't survive without the support of 1. the security services and 2. the oligarchs.

Spoke to someone who finally got their Visa to visit their Russian homeland. The "peasants" view Putin as a strong leader who cleaned up corruption. (First time poster, long time reader).

Russians are also nostalgic for Stalin. Go figure.

[John]

** 06-Feb-2022 World View: War timing - Update: The Yanks are Coming

> So, this is a done deal? World War 3 in few weeks?

> ** 06-Feb-2022 World View: February 20

> Definitely not yet a done deal, but a lot of people around the
> world are very nervous about what might happen in Ukraine and
> Taiwan when the Beijing Olympics games end on February 20.

> John, what's your gut feeling about how this will play out this
> year?

Russia keeps adding battalions and equipment to its army on three
sides of Ukraine's border every day. In my opinion, Putin has become
too committed to military action to back down now.

As for the timing, most analysts seem to believe that it will occur
between Feb 20 and mid-March -- after the end of the Olympics when the
ground is frozen and hard, but before the Spring rains. However, I
heard one analyst say that it might be in July or August, when the
ground is dry.

I have noticed a definite shift in attitude among politicians and
journalists in America and Europe toward advocating a harsh response
to Russia in case an invasion occurs. This is the effect that I've
described many times by the phrase "regeneracy events," or the
regeneration of civic unity against the enemy. This occurs during a
generational Crisis era in reaction to events that might not provoke
any reaction during other generational eras. One example of this is
the harsh criticism directed at Biden at the suggestion that a "minor
incursion" could be ignored.

In view of the massive and growing mobilization of Russian forces,
it's hard to imagine what a "minor incursion" might be anyway.
Analysts are saying that a Russian invasion could create tens of
thousands of civilian casualties, and a major influx of refugees into
Poland (which is a Nato country). In my opinion, an invasion this
size would cause a full regeneracy in Europe, and a European war.

In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just
as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939.
The US was able to stay out of those wars for three years and two
years, respectively. In my opinion, the European war will trigger a
full-scale world war within a few weeks, a few months or at most a
couple of years, with the exact timing dependent on China's actions,
especially in Taiwan.

*** Over There - The Yanks are Coming - 1917

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k9XZB6O26w

[Another guest]

When will America team up with Russia to fight China? Or is that out the window now?