Generational Dynamics World View News

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Russia keeps adding battalions and equipment to its army on three
sides of Ukraine's border every day. In my opinion, Putin has become
too committed to military action to back down now.

I agree. He has to do something big now. Of course it doesn't make much sense, but I don't see this being resolved diplomatically.

It will not be the start of WW3, as Ukraine has no security guarantees from anyone, but I believe things will cascade out of control.

[Navigator]

I don't believe, nor do a lot of posters here, that this is about panicking central bankers trying to prop up the American dollar. I see Putin trying to prop up a failing regime and destroy neighboring liberal democracies. I don't see American central bankers pushing for war. Where do you see that? The burden is on you to explain it.

The current pre-war situations (Ukraine and Taiwan) have nothing to do with Central Bankers or Reserve Currency.

Wars are mostly about Pride and Power. Pride is the "I am X and you are Y, and I am going to fight you to show that I am better than you (by having more power and control)". This is especially triggered if people of X and Y are in the same country. In fact the history of Europe is one long story of X and Y separating themselves completely behind defensible borders. Ukraine is a problem because X (Russians) and Y (Ukrainians) are in the same young country, and the Russians have never been ok with Ukraine being its own country in the first place. Add to that Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire and be a modern hero.

Taiwan is a problem because of Pride/Power of CCP. They feel they must control all other ethnic Chinese.

[John]

** 07-Feb-2022 World View: Uniting Ukraine and Nato

On MS-NBC this morning I saw David Ignatius, who has been a reliable
analyst for years. He said that Russia has done something very
amazing -- he's succeeded in uniting the Ukrainians, and also Nato.
Whereas the Ukrainian people used to be split between those supporting
and opposing Russia, Ukrainians are now united and furious at Russia.
And, according to Ignatius, the Nato countries are now united against
Russia in a way that they never have been before.

[Zoomer go Brr]

** 07-Feb-2022 World View: Uniting Ukraine and Nato

On MS-NBC this morning I saw David Ignatius, who has been a reliable
analyst for years. He said that Russia has done something very
amazing -- he's succeeded in uniting the Ukrainians, and also Nato.
Whereas the Ukrainian people used to be split between those supporting
and opposing Russia, Ukrainians are now united and furious at Russia.
And, according to Ignatius, the Nato countries are now united against
Russia in a way that they never have been before.

Assuming this turns into a hot war, it benefits no one decent. China will invade Taiwan and the USA cannot fight wars on two fronts. USA choosing Europe over Asia will be spun as proof the USA racist and the left will appease China. Asian allies will abandon the US out of necessity. China will become a true regional superpower. Europe will sacrifice its native born men and the population time-bomb will erupt. Even if Russia loses the West will be destroyed. And through all this the hard left, who never went to a front line or sacrificed anything will cheer China’s ascent, USA’s downfall, and the death of whites in Europe.

[DT Subscriber]

China slaps down Liz Truss over the Falklands after signing deal with Argentina
Rebuke comes after Foreign Secretary said the 'Falklands are part of the British family'

Xi Jinping agreed to help prop up the faltering Argentinian economy with $23.7 billion in financing for projects. Alberto Fernandez, the Argentinian president, officially signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global network of infrastructure projects that in some instances has been compared to debt bondage.

On Sunday, Chinese leader Mr Xi and Mr Fernandez also issued a joint statement that said China supported Argentina’s demand for full sovereignty over the islands after meeting on the sidelines of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... argentina/

It seems that China is punishing England for backing its Asian allies against them.

[Navigator]

** 07-Feb-2022 World View: Uniting Ukraine and Nato

On MS-NBC this morning I saw David Ignatius, who has been a reliable
analyst for years. He said that Russia has done something very
amazing -- he's succeeded in uniting the Ukrainians, and also Nato.
Whereas the Ukrainian people used to be split between those supporting
and opposing Russia, Ukrainians are now united and furious at Russia.
And, according to Ignatius, the Nato countries are now united against
Russia in a way that they never have been before.

Interesting article here on dissent in Russia

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html

The coming war doesn't make sense to anyone capable of true rational thought. Not even former Kremlin insiders/hard-liners.

Unfortunately, these people will be as effective as German Field Marshall Beck and other influential German military pre-WW2 leaders in getting Hitler to hold off on war.

[Burner Prime]

** 07-Feb-2022 World View: Uniting Ukraine and Nato

On MS-NBC this morning I saw David Ignatius, who has been a reliable
analyst for years. He said that Russia has done something very
amazing -- he's succeeded in uniting the Ukrainians, and also Nato.
Whereas the Ukrainian people used to be split between those supporting
and opposing Russia, Ukrainians are now united and furious at Russia.
And, according to Ignatius, the Nato countries are now united against
Russia in a way that they never have been before.

I notice you are careful not to say you agree with this analysis, only repeating it. That is wise because he is full of baloney. If you have to keep telling everyone you're the boss...you're not the boss. Same goes with this continual repetition of declarations of unity. It's fake. But they have to keep up appearances.

While most of you were sleeping and having wet dreams about giving the Reds a bloody nose, two things happened:

1. Macron became the leader of the Western "Free World". Someone had to take the mantle since Merkel resigned and Germany's new timid and meek Chancellor Sgt. Scholtz took over. And we can write Biden off, the poor demented pedophile, mumbling and incoherent at every presser. At their joint presser, Sgt. Scholtz declined to confirm Biden's threat to end Nord Stream 2. Pathetic. UK the distant third European power of consequence, lead by another imbecile clown Johnson, is in no position to lead and their bloviating threats again highlight their impotence - as a single actor anyway.

2. Putin is winning. As I told you knuckleheads before, there will be no war. There never was going to be war. Putin acknowledged they would be no match for a combined NATO, but he clearly articulated Russia's ace-in-the-hole for the public and low IQ politicians like AOC. The "off-ramp" has already been defined, that being that any one existing member can deny any new country from joining NATO. While collectively they may make their idiotic statements about sovereignty and requests being open to all - reality will be Russia is going to secure strong written guarantees from one or more relevant NATO members (France, Germany, UK) that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO. This may be a secret agreement we may not hear about for years. Publicly we're hearing it called "security guarantees".

You can bet that when Putin talks to his French and German counterparts, he will always bring up the fact that it was THEY who invaded Russia in the past (Napoleon and Hitler) and have demonstrated that THEY have proven in the past to be an existential threat to Russia. That is why you are seeing progress toward resolving this crisis. Brain-dead American politicians and punters here think there's some ulterior motive on Putin's part but they're wrong.

America's time has passed, she no longer leads as proven by the fact these events are being solved by European leaders themselves, while a doddering Biden eats bowls of ice cream and flips through pages of Teen Magazine.

[John]

** 08-Feb-2022 World View: Insanity

> Interesting article here on dissent in Russia

> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html

> The coming war doesn't make sense to anyone capable of true
> rational thought. Not even former Kremlin insiders/hard-liners.

> Unfortunately, these people will be as effective as German Field
> Marshall Beck and other influential German military pre-WW2
> leaders in getting Hitler to hold off on war.

Well, I've been writing for years that the CCP's policies were insane,
and this article shows that the same is true of Putin's policies.
However, insanity isn't restricted to genocidal dictatorships. The policies of
the Democrats in Washington are also insane.

A couple of days ago you posted that a European war would not lead to
WW III. I can only think that you said that because you believe that
the European nations are going to act rationally. Actually, one
characteristic of a generational Crisis era is that all governments
are increasingly insane, driven by xenophobia, nationalism and
belligerence.

So it's this insanity that leads me to say that a European war would
lead to WW III.

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare
- but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

[John]

** 08-Feb-2022 World View: The Regeneracy

> ** 07-Feb-2022 World View: Uniting
> Ukraine and Nato

> On MS-NBC this morning I saw David Ignatius, who has been a
> reliable analyst for years. He said that Russia has done
> something very amazing -- he's succeeded in uniting the
> Ukrainians, and also Nato. Whereas the Ukrainian people used to
> be split between those supporting and opposing Russia, Ukrainians
> are now united and furious at Russia. And, according to Ignatius,
> the Nato countries are now united against Russia in a way that
> they never have been before.

> I notice you are careful not to say you agree with this analysis,
> only repeating it. That is wise because he is full of baloney. If
> you have to keep telling everyone you're the boss...you're not the
> boss. Same goes with this continual repetition of declarations of
> unity. It's fake. But they have to keep up appearances.

Actually, I do agree with it. It's a manifestation of the
Generational Dynamics concept of the "Regeneracy" process which refers
to the regeneration of civic unity against a common enemy for the
first time since the end of the previous crisis war, which in this
case is WW II.

Basically, the Russian threat to the Western democracies is forcing
them to put aside their political differences. You're focusing on the
differences between the nations, and you're right about them, except
that the Regeneracy forces them to put the differences aside. This is
what always happens during a generational Crisis era.

I wrote about this a couple of days ago:

*** 06-Feb-2022 World View: War timing - Update: The Yanks are Coming
viewtopic.php?p=68327#p68327

*** Over There - The Yanks are Coming - 1917

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k9XZB6O26w

[Navigator]

A couple of days ago you posted that a European war would not lead to
WW III. I can only think that you said that because you believe that
the European nations are going to act rationally. Actually, one
characteristic of a generational Crisis era is that all governments
are increasingly insane, driven by xenophobia, nationalism and
belligerence.

I don't necessarily believe that the invasion of Ukraine will lead to a wider European war / WW3. I think it will be similar to the Nazi takeover of Czechoslovakia, in that the rest of Europe, after a lot of bloviation, does nothing to save Ukraine.

At that point, Putin will move towards the Baltic states. Whose membership in NATO posses the same/greater threat to Russia that they say Ukraine does. This would cause a European war, even if just the Poles come to the aid of the Baltics while the Germans and others sit on their hands.

Of course, the Poles could send their own troops into the Ukraine, and that could kickstart things. Or some Russian commander could do something silly like violate Romanian territory during operations in Ukraine.

I certainly agree that this is going to be increasingly illogical, insane, and driven by the factors you mentioned.