Re: Cool Breeze's Topic

[John]

** 23-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear weapons

> I'm not worried about that, since the first nuclear weapon that is
> set off, if it is, won't be the in the US

> Ah, 100% probability that it won't be in the US, I presume?

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I believe that his
statement is based on Bible prophecy.

[Tom Mazanec]

Even if the first mushroom cloud is not in the US, the second might be.

[Guest]

If doomsday comes, why pick on Bitcoin? Like I said, pick on everything because nothing does you much good. Good luck lugging around a bunch of nickels to a new land that isn't crushed by fall out or has ruined water or land - whoops you didn't think of that. Why? Bitcoin is optimal for that and you hate BTC for no good reason.

if it doesn't come, or you are living in a safe area, you have multiple options when you see the other side of the world. It's not that hard to understand guys. Why do I have to keep repeating it? You have certainty on many things but have been wrong on many things already. I make % probabilities and map out the optimum expected value, since no one can predict the future. Shall I repeat all these things 10 more times, or do you understand now?

Uncle Cool Breeze, let me take 2 or 3 shots of whiskey tonight for extra measure and settle in, and then maybe you can mansplain this to me one more time. I'm not sure I understand yet.

What is the probability that Bitcoin will go to zero?

What is the probability that a nuclear weapon will be detonated in the US?

What "many things" have people on this board been wrong on already? Bitcoin? War?

[Cool Breeze]

What's your take?

I can admit that the probability thing does make it seem like "you're never wrong" but I do have an answer: what do I bet on? That's what tells you it's a "prediction" for me.

First one must be honest about my criticism regarding the "I'm not wrong, I'm just early". Once one concedes that, we can have a productive conversation. So the ball is in your court.

[Cool Breeze]

** 23-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear weapons

> I'm not worried about that, since the first nuclear weapon that is
> set off, if it is, won't be the in the US

> Ah, 100% probability that it won't be in the US, I presume?

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I believe that his
statement is based on Bible prophecy.

It does not. Those are the mormons US-centric positions, none of which are accurate. He does have some accurate positions, though, just not related to the US and some end times mumbo jumbo.

John believes that a limited and regional nuclear war will happen, if it does, in the ME or Far East, right John?

I agree.

[Tom Mazanec]

Unless I am mistaken, bitcoin can never go to zero. The bitcoins will always be there and available. Stock can go to zero because a company can go out of business, but not bitcoin (though it could theoretically go down to a penny apiece).

[Guest]

What's your take?

I can admit that the probability thing does make it seem like "you're never wrong" but I do have an answer: what do I bet on? That's what tells you it's a "prediction" for me.

First one must be honest about my criticism regarding the "I'm not wrong, I'm just early". Once one concedes that, we can have a productive conversation. So the ball is in your court.

Your last bet was on old microwave ovens to use as faraday cages. That tells me you are predicting a nuclear war.

[John]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear war

> John believes that a limited and regional nuclear war will happen,
> if it does, in the ME or Far East, right John?

> I agree.

I answered this in the Nuclear War thread.
viewtopic.php?p=69126#p69126

Also, I was thinking of you when I wrote the post on
"The Principle of Maximum Ruin" in the Financial Topics thread.
You ought to think about that.

viewtopic.php?p=69124#p69124

[Cool Breeze]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear war

> John believes that a limited and regional nuclear war will happen,
> if it does, in the ME or Far East, right John?

> I agree.

I answered this in the Nuclear War thread.
viewtopic.php?p=69126#p69126

Also, I was thinking of you when I wrote the post on
"The Principle of Maximum Ruin" in the Financial Topics thread.
You ought to think about that.

viewtopic.php?p=69124#p69124

Thanks for the heads up. It's a good point but I don't hold equities in a "buy the dip" OR a "buy and hold" fashion. Who you are mostly directing this cautionary tale is those index investors who have done so well for so long, and might get ruined. I definitely don't believe in buy and hold in the sense that it has worked before because while you might get anothe 4-5 years out of that strategy, if you're lucky, its time has come.

Now, I think you are referring to my HODL sentiment with BTC - a totally different asset uncorrelated, at least theoretically, or definitely not correlated to FED manipulation in the same way (actually the opposite direction = confidence). I will be able to wait for the extra 20 years, anyway, by the way.

[Tom Mazanec]

On March 5 I will be singing "When I'm 64" so I am not into things for the "long term". My "long tern" is mostly over. Also, I do not like gambling. Bitcoin is not for me.