Generational Dynamics World View News

[utahbob]

One of the things that are making many of us observers scratch our heads is the lack of success of the VVS or Russian Airborne is having taking the airports around Kyiv. We thought the Russians would establish air dominance over Ukraine and an air bridge with SPRUT light tanks being dropped to create an airhead. Landing helicopters with penny packets of 300 paratroopers scattered is an ass-backward way of doing things with a lack of CAS. Reports are coming out that the Russians have lost multiple IL-76s and Ka-52. If true IL-76 shot down means companies (100+) of paratroopers were killed on each transport. That is a shit sandwich to eat and there will be unhappy mothers. Here is the American or NATO way to do business https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs ... fm3_99.pdf

[John]

** 27-Feb-2022 World View: Air dominance

> One of the things that are making many of us observers scratch our
> heads is the lack of success the VVS or Russian Airborne is having
> taking the airports around Kyiv. We thought the Russians would
> establish air dominance over Ukraine and an air bridge with SPRUT
> light tanks being dropped to create an airhead. Landing
> helicopters with penny packets of 300 paratroopers scattered is an
> ass-backward way of doing things with a lack of CAS. Reports are
> coming out that the Russians have lost multiple IL-76s and
> Ka-52. If true IL-76 shot down means companies (100+) of
> paratroopers were killed on each transport. That is a shit
> sandwich to eat. Here is the American or NATO way to do business
> https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs ... fm3_99.pdf

I've heard the same thing from tv analysts who describe the Russian
invasion as a "debacle" so far, as I described a few posts back. The
army is running out of petrol, bullets and food, and Ukrainian
warplanes are in the air shooting at Russian warplanes.

[utahbob]

It looks like the Ukrainians are trading space for time and going after Russian combat support (engineers) and logistics units. Look at the size of the craters under the wrecks: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... t1_hymljy6

[DaKardii]

If Russia fails to take Kiev, then it will be the end of Putin (politically). His support base will not forgive him for losing a war that they believe should've been easily won. Of course that's not necessarily something to be celebrated. If Putin falls, he may be succeeded by someone much more radical and unpredictable.

Additionally, if Russia loses this war the Sino-Russian "alliance" may collapse prematurely. It was always destined to collapse eventually, but if Russia demonstrates that it's weaker than the rest of the world thought then China will no longer have any incentive to hold back against trying to take Siberia.

We live in interesting times...

[John]

** 27-Feb-2022 World View: Bombing populations and chemical weapons

Now that Russia's forces are advancing a lot more slowly than planned,
the fear is that Putin will double down with much more vicious attacks
to force capitulation.

(By the way, Russia and Ukraine are going to have some kind of "peace
conference" on the border between Ukraine and Belarus. This is
expected to be something of a farce, with the Russian delegation
demanding full capitulation. We'll see tomorrow.)

Navi has suggested that Putin might order the use of nuclear weapons.
That's a possibility, though it has the disadvantage that the
nuclear fallout could go into Nato countries and trigger nuclear
retaliation.

I think it's more likely that Russia will follow the same path
as in Chechnya and Syria -- massive bombing, combined with
chemical weapons -- Sarin gas and chlorine gas.

I've described in previous articles how this was done. The following
are extracts from two articles from the past.



** 19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160219


The massive attack on the city of Aleppo by Syrian and Russian
warplanes pounding civilians with missiles and barrel bombs, in
conjunction with ground attacks by YPG militias, is said to be a
Russian army tactic known as the "Grozny model."

Turkish security officials say that in Russia's 1990s war with
Chechnya, Russian warplanes bombed schools and hospitals in order to
create a refugee crisis, and to empty the urban residential areas.
Once that was achieved, heavy weapons could be deployed to eradicate
opposing forces, entailing widespread destruction of homes and
infrastructure.

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the purpose of the "Grozny
model" strategy being followed by Russia and al-Assad is to create a
de facto Kurdish state in northern Syria along the border with
Turkey. This strategy is completely intolerable to Turkey, and even
if it succeeded, it would certainly lead to continued war.

However, even without succeeding, this Russian strategy is leading to
war. Turkey's tanks have been shelling YPG positions in Syria, as
we've reported several times in the last week.



** 6-Feb-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on his own people
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180206



Rescue workers are reporting that warplanes from the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad and from his ally Russia have stepped up
bombing attacks on civilians in densely populated neighborhoods in
Eastern Ghouta and Idlib, and the use of chlorine gas has been stepped
up. At least 29 people were killed.

Typically chlorine gas is delivered through the use of barrel bombs.
The barrel bombs are filled with metal and chlorine gas in order to
kill as many people as possible.

Al-Assad has used Sarin gas in the past to kill dozens or hundreds of
people at a time. As a chemical weapon, chlorine gas doesn't
immediately kill as many people as Sarin, but it's used in a different
way. When warplanes start bombing, women and children particularly
hide in basements of buildings. Since chlorine gas is heavier than
air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and
children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and
gunfire.

[DaKardii]

If Russia fails to take Kiev, then it will be the end of Putin (politically). His support base will not forgive him for losing a war that they believe should've been easily won. Of course that's not necessarily something to be celebrated. If Putin falls, he may be succeeded by someone much more radical and unpredictable.

Additionally, if Russia loses this war the Sino-Russian "alliance" may collapse prematurely. It was always destined to collapse eventually, but if Russia demonstrates that it's weaker than the rest of the world thought then China will no longer have any incentive to hold back against trying to take Siberia.

We live in interesting times...

To further elaborate, the possibility of these outcomes is exactly why Putin is willing to risk resorting to nukes at this point. But for what?

In the worst case scenario, Russia gets nuked into oblivion, untold millions die, and the country becomes a failed state overnight. What remains of it is then divided between its neighbors, and it'll be like living under the Mongol Yoke all over again, if not worse than that.

Is that what Putin's willing to risk? If so, then perhaps he really is as unhinged as the mainstream media says.

[utahbob]

Supposed results of Spetnaz unit caught in the open. Not for kids: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 0whDM4EVl4

[DaKardii]

Additionally, if Russia loses this war the Sino-Russian "alliance" may collapse prematurely. It was always destined to collapse eventually, but if Russia demonstrates that it's weaker than the rest of the world thought then China will no longer have any incentive to hold back against trying to take Siberia.

To even further elaborate, a Chinese invasion of Siberia would be a critical national security threat to the US, because a Chinese victory would result in the CCP being right on our (maritime) border. Same goes with a possible Chinese invasion of Japan. Should either of these scenarios occur, it absolutely would warrant the US declaring war on China.

[DaKardii]

My sister sent me this link a few minutes ago.

https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion

[Guest]

** 27-Feb-2022 World View: Air dominance

> One of the things that are making many of us observers scratch our
> heads is the lack of success the VVS or Russian Airborne is having
> taking the airports around Kyiv. We thought the Russians would
> establish air dominance over Ukraine and an air bridge with SPRUT
> light tanks being dropped to create an airhead. Landing
> helicopters with penny packets of 300 paratroopers scattered is an
> ass-backward way of doing things with a lack of CAS. Reports are
> coming out that the Russians have lost multiple IL-76s and
> Ka-52. If true IL-76 shot down means companies (100+) of
> paratroopers were killed on each transport. That is a shit
> sandwich to eat. Here is the American or NATO way to do business
> https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs ... fm3_99.pdf

I've heard the same thing from tv analysts who describe the Russian
invasion as a "debacle" so far, as I described a few posts back. The
army is running out of petrol, bullets and food, and Ukrainian
warplanes are in the air shooting at Russian warplanes.

The EU could be about to supply fighter jets to Ukraine.