Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Luftwaffe is set to buy up to 35 F-35 fighter jets and a further 15 Eurofighter jets

[Guest]

russian state media denounces pro putin "alt-righters".

quotes from the article:
"Instead, they are projecting their own issues with their homelands onto this country and its leaders. For instance, American and European far-rightists think that because Vladimir Putin has restored Russia as a strong and sovereign state, he’s somehow aligned with their beliefs. And is on some kind of mission from God to save ‘white’ Christianity.

But, he’s not. Because Russia may well be the most ethnically and religiously diverse country in Europe. And Putin’s own cabinets have included a smorgasbord of Jews, Muslims and Buddhists in addition to the Christians and Agnostics who form the largest Russian ‘belief’ categories."

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/416804-anti-se ... n-insider/

Hey, Russaboos! How are you?

[Guest]

Russian media reports Chechnya Warlord Kadyrov vows to take Kyiv, as he shows up to support his troops nearby the area.

If this story is true, then Kadyrov could be killed, which would completwly destabilize Chechnya immediately.

Time to arm the Chechen rebels.

I can't believe how badly things are spinning out of control for the Russians.

Is it true that the Russian troops don't even have GPS?

[John]

** 14-Mar-2022 World View: GPS

The GPS system is run by the military, and the military can control it
in various ways -- disabling it completely, making it much less
precise, etc. Russia has its own GPS system, but apparently it's
subject to being jammed.

‘Local’ Russian GPS jamming in Ukraine hasn’t affected US support ops, so far
The Pentagon doesn't believe Russia has fully unleashed its
significant electronic warfare capabilities, a senior defense official
said.
By Theresa Hitchens on March 01, 2022 at 2:43 PM
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/loc ... ps-so-far/

Russia expected to ditch GLONASS for Loran in Ukraine invasion
February 17, 2022 - By Tracy Cozzens
Russian military doctrine assumes GLONASS and other GNSS will not be
available once a battle begins, so will instead turn to Loran-C for
navigation
https://www.gpsworld.com/russia-expecte ... -invasion/

[El Cid M]

Preparing for Defeat
Francis Fukuyama

10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm
I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

[John]

** 14-Mar-2022 World View: Russian defeat in Ukraine?

Preparing for Defeat
> Francis Fukuyama
>
> 10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm

> ...

> Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian
> planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that
> Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would
> collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were
> evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv
> rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has
> committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there
> are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the
> battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities
> where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian
> attacks.

> The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic,
> rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army
> in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied
> nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in
> the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those
> positions would be hard to maintain if the north
> collapses. ...

That's an interesting article, but a few things about it bother
me -- mainly that it's too optimistic.

Let's suppose that the core prediction is correct: That the Russian
army will collapse.

The article seems to imply that everything will return to normal --
better than normal, since there will be a "new birth of freedom." But
what will really happen?

If the army continues to fail, then Putin will resort increasingly
to bombing -- as it did in Syria. The army seems unable to take
control of any city, but Russian bombs can turn a city to rubble.

If Putin is desperate enough, he will use chemical weapons and
tactical nuclear weapons. This could very well bring a response from
Nato.

If the Russian army is defeated but unable to withdraw, there will be
a great deal of ongoing revenge. The Ukrainian soldiers will torture
and kill Russian soldiers, and the Ukrainian civilians will torture
and kill Russian civilians.

Millions of refugees who fled to other countries will return to find
their homes destroyed. They will add to the revenge.

Then there's China. With Russia's Far East almost completely
undefended, China may decide to "help out" the Russians by
"protecting" the Far East from a Japanese or American "invasion," and
send in its own troops. As I've said before, the Chinese Communist
people hate the Russians, and the Chinese Communists consider Russia's
Far East, including the Vladivostok naval base, to be Chinese
territory, lost because of "unfair treaties," like Hong Kong.

A lot of people believe that WW III has already begun, and we're in
the "burn-in" phase. I agree.

[Cool Breeze]

The Russians have likely won already and you just have been following propaganda. I think there will be a deal, but of course Zelensky would rather have WWIII - luckily he is, and has been, just a placeholding stooge.

[John]

** 14-Mar-2022 World View: Propaganda

> The Russians have likely won already and you just have been
> following propaganda. I think there will be a deal, but of course
> Zelensky would rather have WWIII - luckily he is, and has been,
> just a placeholding stooge.

Doesn't it bother you in the least that you've been wrong time after
time after time after time after time, and the so-called "propaganda"
has always been right?

[thomasglee]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Facebook for its role in helping him win the propaganda war after the platform announced it would permit calls for violence against Russians

In other words, Facebook is directly aiding Ukraine by allowing pro-Ukraine propaganda to spread while banning any pro-Russia propaganda.

This despite the fact that there have been numerous huge fabricated stories in just a few weeks alone, including the Snake Island hoax and the supposed attack on a Holocaust memorial in Kiev that never happened.

“Facebook has helped Zelensky himself spread endless disinformation to try and con NATO into World War III,” comments Chris Menahan. “Most recently, they helped Zelensky spread the lie that Russians attacked the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with tanks and it was leaking radiation and could lead to a nuclear holocaust wiping out all of Europe (if NATO doesn’t immediately get involved in the war and start WW3).”

“They also helped Zelensky spread the lie that Russians attacked the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and were trying to trigger a meltdown.”

Facebook’s decision to allow its platform to be used to advocate for violence against Russians was also made despite actual real world violence being directed towards Russians.

A Russian cultural center in Paris was firebombed last weekend, while a man in Dublin also drove a truck into the gates of the Russian embassy.

[John]

** 14-Mar-2022 World View: War crimes

> Facebook’s decision to allow its platform to be used to advocate
> for violence against Russians was also made despite actual real
> world violence being directed towards Russians.

> A Russian cultural center in Paris was firebombed last weekend,
> while a man in Dublin also drove a truck into the gates of the
> Russian embassy.

Waaaah, waaaah, waaaaaaaaah.

What do you expect? Russia is committing horrific, barbaric genocidal
war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine, freely killing
women and children, destroying cities and villages, and creating
millions of refugees in other countries, including France and Ireland.

Those millions of refugees are going to feel completely free to
perform revenge acts of terrorism on Russians anywhere. Attacks on a
Russian cultural center and a Russian embassy at least did not kill
pregnant women and babies, as far as I know. If Ukrainian civilians
are legitimate targets for Russian war crimes, then Russian buildings
are even more legitimate.