Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

What does Navigator think of all this? He said NATO was hollowed out (which I agree with), but how did he get the true strength of the Russian army so wrong? Why did most get it so wrong?

I wonder how strong (or weak) China actually is?

Will this STOP China from attacking Taiwan this year? Perhaps the Shanghai Clique (lead by a former Chinese Prsident) can topple Xi after all?

A very interesting question. Xi pigKing is up for 'reelection' (haha) this October and I've seen speculation that he might face a challenge.
How would this affect their strategy going into the assembly? If taking Taiwan is too risky he might not try for fear of getting ousted.
Can anyone help with this speculation please?

[Guest]

What does Navigator think of all this? He said NATO was hollowed out (which I agree with), but how did he get the true strength of the Russian army so wrong? Why did most get it so wrong?

I wonder how strong (or weak) China actually is?

Will this STOP China from attacking Taiwan this year? Perhaps the Shanghai Clique (lead by a former Chinese Prsident) can topple Xi after all?

A very interesting question. Xi pigKing is up for 'reelection' (haha) this October and I've seen speculation that he might face a challenge.
How would this affect their strategy going into the assembly? If taking Taiwan is too risky he might not try for fear of getting ousted.
Can anyone help with this speculation please?

I think Xi's fortunes are now tied to Putin's. If Putin flames out in Ukraine and is knocked out of power, Xi will look bad. Xi's judgment will be called into question. The boys in Shanghai are gunning for Xi. He has a boatload of enemies. I think many are starting to question Xi's leadership.

[Navigator]

What does Navigator think of all this? He said NATO was hollowed out (which I agree with), but how did he get the true strength of the Russian army so wrong? Why did most get it so wrong?

I wonder how strong (or weak) China actually is?

Will this STOP China from attacking Taiwan this year? Perhaps the Shanghai Clique (lead by a former Chinese Prsident) can topple Xi after all?

First I need to say that I am happy that Putin/the Russian Army are stymied and badly hurt. I am glad whenever the forces of evil are thwarted in their diabolical designs.

But, to give a good perspective on what is going on, and what could happen next, I have to give a quite lengthy response, as this is now a complex situation. I only have a few minutes during the day, and will post a much more detailed analysis later today.

Briefly, for now: The Russian military has indeed shown itself, currently, to be quite incompetent. I had mentioned before that this is not all that unusual for the Russian Army. The giant example here is of the Russian Army in the 1939/40 Winter War against Finland (which had become independent of Russia only 20 years before). The Finns, with a small military, were able to withstand the Russians for months, until a peace was settled.

Please look at the overview of this, the "Winter War" on Wikipedia, which is a gives a pretty good overview.

Russia has always had trouble with war UNTIL there is a psychological trigger for them. I would call this the "Mortal Threat to Mother Russia". Until this is triggered, the Russian Army in its history, has been pretty poor. But once this is triggered, they become a different animal. So far, this has only happened 3 times, the war with Sweden in the 1700s (Poltava being the culmination), Napoleon, and then Hitler's invasions. Once this happens, the Russian military, and people, react quite differently, as Napoleon and Hitler learned.

It is what happens next that is crucial. Will Putin be able to trigger this in the Russian psyche? If not, he and the current Russian system could well be finished.

If it is triggered, Russia will take the gloves off and fully gear towards revenge against Europe.

I believe that years from now, our hindsight will be that we should have given NATO guarantees to Ukraine in December/January when the Russians started to mass on the border, and that not going into it with the Russians should they have then crossed the border into Ukraine was the giant mistake.

Russia still thinks, in an increasingly smaller way, that it is going to end this in Ukraine and get everything smoothed over with the West.

[spottybrowncow]

Roll eyes... Rumble and Bit-Chute are where alt-right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists are exiled to after YT kicks them off.

This is a very misleading statement. It implies that that's all these alternative outlets contain. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Many very credible sources have been removed or stigmatized by left-wing media sites such as yoube, twitter, facebook, with perhaps the most egregious example being the American Heart Association being labeled unsafe by twitter for publishing data showing an increased risk of heart disease after getting Covid MRNA shot.

So yes, fringe alt-right wackos are going to these alternative sites, but unfortunately, many with very valid arguments that detract from the official narrative also have to go there. If mainstream social media was unbiased, there would be no need for that.

[DaKardii]

Oleg Matveychev ought to keep his mouth shut.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/15/putins-sp ... aska-back/

[DaKardii]

Shit is about to hit the fan...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arab ... 1647351541

[Cool Breeze]

Roll eyes... Rumble and Bit-Chute are where alt-right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists are exiled to after YT kicks them off.

This is a very misleading statement. It implies that that's all these alternative outlets contain. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Many very credible sources have been removed or stigmatized by left-wing media sites such as yoube, twitter, facebook, with perhaps the most egregious example being the American Heart Association being labeled unsafe by twitter for publishing data showing an increased risk of heart disease after getting Covid MRNA shot.

So yes, fringe alt-right wackos are going to these alternative sites, but unfortunately, many with very valid arguments that detract from the official narrative also have to go there. If mainstream social media was unbiased, there would be no need for that.

Exactly, and even my posts are removed here. Quite interesting.

[Cool Breeze]

Shit is about to hit the fan...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arab ... 1647351541

We tried to tell you guys. But no, you gotta listen to the narrative and Biden/Pelosi/Witch Woman

[DaKardii]

Shit is about to hit the fan...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arab ... 1647351541

We tried to tell you guys. But no, you gotta listen to the narrative and Biden/Pelosi/Witch Woman

"We?"

I was the one warning people here about the petrodollar. And you were THE biggest voice against that warning on this site. And now you want to take credit?

Unless I'm misunderstanding that reply. Am I?

[Navigator]

(1st of multiple)

First off, I am as dumbfounded as anyone in the military community that the Russians thought they could just send armored columns up the road into Ukraine and have that turn out ok. It works when your enemy are completely incompetent surrender monkeys (Iraq Army and equivalent), but not against many other foes. Why they didn’t go off road or put out infantry screens in front is beyond me. They must have really bought into the baloney narrative that the FSB fed Putin, that resistance would be non-existent to minimal.

The wider problem, and this isn’t just with the Russian military, is that most people, including senior officers in many armies, do not understand how drastically military tactical reality has changed since WW2. Army “heavy” formations creating a breakthrough, given modern technology, is not going to happen against a competent and properly equipped foe.

This became apparent during the last conventional war between competent foes, the Israelis and Egyptians in the 1973 war. There, the introduction of the ATGM (anti-tank guided missile) proved a serious disaster for the Israelis, who found that tank charges against foes with such weapons were nearly suicidal. Luckily for the Israelis, the ATGMs at the time were wire guided; the missile operator had to keep the target in sight the entire time the missile was in flight. The Israelis figured out that firing every automatic weapon (machine guns) that could be brought to bear against the launch site would cause the operator to “duck” and thus the missile would go off track. Today, anti-tank rockets are “fire and forget” meaning you launch it, and then you get away, very quickly, from your launch point. The missile doesn’t miss, and you can take cover. Also, the missiles used today can penetrate any modern tank from almost any angle.

Added to this is the threat from drones and multi seeker warhead artillery shells, and the tank is no longer dominant over the infantry on the battlefield.

What this means is that no army, versus a competent foe, can execute WW2 blitzkrieg type breakthroughs against a defended front. It means that the defense is now vastly stronger than the offense. The end result are battles that revert to kind of a WW1 dynamic. Relatively static lines, with both sides blasting the heck out of each other with artillery and aerial bombardments.

No army has properly organized and trained for this environment. Obviously not the Russians, who in a lot of cases are appearing to be the proverbial “fish in a barrel”.

The Russian Army is certainly also hampered by senior leaders who attained their positions through “office politics”. And I am sure that added to that is their coziness with the crooks who are ubiquitous in the political and economic and military leadership of Putin’s Russia.

The Russians need to make DRASTIC changes to their leadership and to their tactics and unit organization. Right now, they are learning the lessons firsthand. If they fail to make these changes, Putin will end up like Czar Nicholas II, whose Army was incompetent, poorly led, and poorly supplied.
BUT, Russia does have a history of making the necessary changes. If Putin can ruthlessly clean out incompetent commanders and find competent ones. If Putin can find ways of rallying and mobilizing the Russian people. Then he can attempt to end up like Stalin.

Stalin’s Army in the 1939/40 war against Finland (a breakaway part of Imperial Russia) was a complete mess. The Finns made mincemeat out of the Soviet Armies for months until they were finally overwhelmed by massive numbers. Stalin made the leadership changes. Hitler later provided the rallying of the Russian people by treating them like scum and marching into the Russian interior.