Generational Dynamics World View News

[El Cid M]

** 16-Mar-2022 World View: Navigator's analysis

> Russia has always had trouble with war UNTIL there is a
> psychological trigger for them. I would call this the "Mortal
> Threat to Mother Russia". Until this is triggered, the Russian
> Army in its history, has been pretty poor. But once this is
> triggered, they become a different animal. So far, this has only
> happened 3 times, the war with Sweden in the 1700s (Poltava being
> the culmination), Napoleon, and then Hitler's invasions. Once this
> happens, the Russian military, and people, react quite
> differently, as Napoleon and Hitler learned.

Thank you for this analysis. I'd like to build on it.

The interesting thing about the three wars you mention is that they
were all non-crisis (Awakening Era) wars for Russia, fought in
conjunction with a crisis war for Europe (War of the Spanish
Succession / Great Northern War, French Revolution / Napoleon's
invasion, WW II / Hitler's invasion).

As you point out, they all follow the same pattern: the Russians are
incompetent with a foreign invader, but they win in the end -- often
because the invader can't tolerate the cold Russian winter -- when the
war becomes an existential crisis for Russia.

Russia's crisis wars for the last few centuries were internal
rebellions -- the Razin's peasant rebellion in the 1600s, Pugachev's
Rebellion in the 1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and the
Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s.

In other words, Russia has never had a successful expeditionary crisis
war. And let's not forget the the Mongols conquered Russia in 1206
and imposed the hated "Mongol Yoke" that lasted two centuries.

So when you say that the Russian army only becomes competent when it
is "triggered" by an existential threat to Russia, I would say exactly
the same thing in a different way: The Russian army is only competent
inside RussiA, and incompetent outside Russia. In other words, the
Russians don't have the skills to fight an expeditionary war.

I would say that the Russian Army is only good once an outside power has triggered the threat. This could come from invasion, if it goes far enough, and gets into core areas. For example, the German Army leadership in WW1 knew not to trigger this, and they never went far into Russia, and never against a large "Russian" city (they took Riga, but avoided moving on Minsk, as Riga is Latvian, while Minsk is core Russian).

Once the "trigger" occurs, the Russian Army is still good past its borders as it goes after whoever "pulled" the "trigger". Hence the Russian Army was competent in the pursuit of Napoleon outside Russia, going as far as Paris in his pursuit. Same with the Russian Army moving across Eastern and Central Europe in pursuit of Hitler and his armies.

Ukraine had been part of Russia for so long that Russians probably view what is going on there as a semi-internal matter. The "trigger" could be Putin telling his domestic audience that the West (NATO) is to blame for the fiasco now unfolding, for all the soldier deaths (due to the weapons they supplied) and that they are in "mortal danger".

He will certainly blame them for the economic turmoil they are about to suffer. Then they can play on the "look at your smug neighbors in the Baltics, Poland and Germany. They have everything we should have. They only have it because they are 'putting us down'". Then all those other Russian psychological instincts (as someone else put it, they will burn down their neighbor's house if its a lot better than theirs) will come into play too.

Also, don't forget the example of the Winter War. Everyone at the time thought the Red Army was hopelessly incompetent. Then look at what happened a year or two later. Stalingrad was neither Russians being incompetent nor "surrender monkeys".

Can't the Ukrainians be "triggered" too?

[thomasglee]

If the global financial system breaks into two, the powers that be in Washington will want the heads of the countries responsible on a silver platter. And in their rage they may well succeed in pushing into China's camp not just Russia, but India as well.

TPTB in Washington are more globalists than nationalist.

[thomasglee]

Digital Tyranny: Beware Of The Government's Push For A Digital Currency

...tools to make our lives “easier” while, in the process, making it easier for the government to track, control and punish the citizenry.

Indeed, this shift to a digital currency is a global trend.

More than 100 other countries are considering introducing their own digital currencies.

[Tom Mazanec]

Ukraine Mounts Counteroffensive to Drive Russians Back From Kyiv, Key Cities
By Alan Cullison , Isabel Coles and Yaroslav Trofimov
Updated March 16, 2022 9:18 pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-mo ... 1647428858

Russia attacks theatre sheltering civilians, Ukraine says
By Hugo Bachega
BBC News, Lviv, Ukraine
Published1 hour ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60772331

[Guest]

Russia has seen up to 28,000 troops killed, wounded or captured in Ukraine - around a fifth of its force - US says, as invasion 'stalls on all fronts' but shelling of cities continues
Russia has seen at least 7,000 soldiers killed and up to 21,000 wounded, according to new Pentagon estimate
Fifth of the force Putin amassed before war could now be out of action, as units become 'combat ineffective'
British intelligence says Russian advance has now stalled 'on all fronts' with 'heavy casualties' being suffered
Shelling of major cities continued today, with Kyiv struck in the early hours and Kharkiv bombed overnight

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... force.html

[Xeraphim1]

More succinctly, if you want to buy stuff or sell stuff, you'll have to choose one side or the other. The Western nations may not allow others to sit on the fence anymore.

Some valid points but old world thinking. You’re both overlooking the emergence of digital currencies.

I agree wholeheartedly that Russia should not trust China. Russia thinks China will be a consumer of oil and gas from Russia. However at some point China will try to just take that oil and gas by force - either economic or physical. However that’s a loner term play. I believe Xi and Putin both are basing their strategies in short terms gains.

I don't know that digital currencies would make any difference now. You still need some way to convert those into "real" money. Maybe in the future there will be some kind of change, but I think the people pushing these and cryptocurrencies have on overinflated belief in their usefulness.

In the medium to long term, both China and Russia are declining powers. The phrase "Russia is a gas station with nukes" is not so far off the map. Russia survives selling oil and gas and the increasing use of renewables mean that isn't a long term income stream. It has no other real exports because its domestic production isn't competitive on the international market. China is sitting on a debt bomb that dwarfs what the US is facing as well as a demographic implosion that will kill its economy. Even going on the conquest path won't make a difference in the long term.

[Xeraphim1]

If the global financial system breaks into two, the powers that be in Washington will want the heads of the countries responsible on a silver platter. And in their rage they may well succeed in pushing into China's camp not just Russia, but India as well.

Can Russia survive just trading with China? Is it willing to become a Chinese satrapy? I don't know that is likely.

India is only on the fence because it is frightened by China and has the historical misfortune of having bought a lot of Soviet/Russia weapons which is biting it in the butt. India greatly prefers the West but needs to get over its Russian weapons dependency which charitably will take another two decades. They can only afford so many Western weapons at a time while domestic defense production is hamstrung by incompetent bureaucracy.

[Xeraphim1]

I would say that the Russian Army is only good once an outside power has triggered the threat. This could come from invasion, if it goes far enough, and gets into core areas. For example, the German Army leadership in WW1 knew not to trigger this, and they never went far into Russia, and never against a large "Russian" city (they took Riga, but avoided moving on Minsk, as Riga is Latvian, while Minsk is core Russian).

Once the "trigger" occurs, the Russian Army is still good past its borders as it goes after whoever "pulled" the "trigger". Hence the Russian Army was competent in the pursuit of Napoleon outside Russia, going as far as Paris in his pursuit. Same with the Russian Army moving across Eastern and Central Europe in pursuit of Hitler and his armies.

Ukraine had been part of Russia for so long that Russians probably view what is going on there as a semi-internal matter. The "trigger" could be Putin telling his domestic audience that the West (NATO) is to blame for the fiasco now unfolding, for all the soldier deaths (due to the weapons they supplied) and that they are in "mortal danger".

He will certainly blame them for the economic turmoil they are about to suffer. Then they can play on the "look at your smug neighbors in the Baltics, Poland and Germany. They have everything we should have. They only have it because they are 'putting us down'". Then all those other Russian psychological instincts (as someone else put it, they will burn down their neighbor's house if its a lot better than theirs) will come into play too.

Also, don't forget the example of the Winter War. Everyone at the time thought the Red Army was hopelessly incompetent. Then look at what happened a year or two later. Stalingrad was neither Russians being incompetent nor "surrender monkeys".

The difference in this case is that Russia is not threatened with no fighting on Russian soil. The only Russian dying are those sent into Ukraine so I don't know that you could trigger the response you're talking about without Russian cities being bombed. There is also the problem that the Russian military seems to have big problems with logistics and can't just shovel millions or conscripts into the battle. It's having problems feeding the ones already there and has a shortage of modern munitions. Russian aircraft are suffering losses because they're attacking at low level with dumb bombs, something the West stopped doing 30 years ago because it could afford better.

[Guest from Tx]

The more I read about the situation on the ground, the more I am convinced Russia will do the unthinkable: use nuclear weapons on the Ukraine.

[El Cid M]

Digital Tyranny: Beware Of The Government's Push For A Digital Currency

...tools to make our lives “easier” while, in the process, making it easier for the government to track, control and punish the citizenry.

Indeed, this shift to a digital currency is a global trend.

More than 100 other countries are considering introducing their own digital currencies.

And a lot of countries were planning on going green and relying on solar and wind to power their A/C and keep the lights on. Now that reality has hit, they are going back to burning coal and using nuclear power.

Digital currencies are fragile and easily blocked, deleted, or stolen. No way I want to be at the mercy of tech lords or governments. I don't know anyone that thinks going digital is a good idea. But, then again, I hate ebooks, still have a library of paperbacks and hardcovers, and collect DVDs.

Gold, food, guns.

And DVDs.