Generational Dynamics World View News

[utahbob]

Here is Tom Cooper's brief for today:

Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24 hours, 16 Mar 22
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MANPAD – man-protable air defence system
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division
PGM – precision guided munition
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
SAM – surface-to-air missile
UAF – Ukrainian armed Forces
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

STRATEGIC
The Russians have de-facto stopped all their offensive operations yesterday. The RUMINT has it, they’ve lost up to 40% of troops involved in the invasion by now (mind: this is including killed, wounded, missing/prisoner of war etc.), and are thus busy bringing in additional units from the Far East, Armenia, and Tajikistan, and drafting even cadets from military higher education to replace their losses. Not sure if their losses are really 40%, but gauging by ‘disappearance’ of numerous units from the frontlines, I would say about 20 battered BTGs were withdrawn from the line to be reorganised and reconstituted.
The Ukrainian GenStab is reporting that the West OSK refused to deploy the 5th Combined Arms Army (not involved yet) to Kyiv, supposedly ‘due to heavy losses in the south’. Not yet sure what to think of this, but if so, then the 58th CAA is in far more serious trouble than thought – and that would explain the withdrawal of its elements from Voznesensk and Kryvyi Rihh, and the rushed redeployment of its elements from Armenia, just for example, and the ‘non-appearance’ of the much-expected amphibious landing in the Odessa area.
BTW, following a law suit filled by Ukraine against Russia, the UN International Court of Justice in Den Haag (including 15 judges, between them one each from Russia and China) has ordered Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine (vote was 13:2), and to ensure that any military units controlled or maintained by it, as well as any organisations or individuals indirectly controlled by it, do not take further actions. Furthermore, while explaining that the court had no evidence that Ukraine was committing genocide on Russians on its territory, the court announced that it has jurisdiction to investigate whether genocide is taking place in Ukraine – by Russia and on Ukrainians.
Don't worry: this decision is going to be completely ignored by Putin, but also by the mass of Western governments...
AIR
This 16 Mar was another bad day for the VKS. Except for confirmation for a loss of 6-7 helicopters destroyed in the Ukrainian artillery barrage of the Kherson Airport, a day before, there followed a confirmation for a number of earlier losses (like burial of a Lieutenant-Colonel shot down while flying a Su-25 on 7 March, or photos the wreckage of a Su-34 shot down on 5 March near Chernihiv). Atop of this, the Ukrainians have claimed two Su-30SMs as shot down near Odessa, and the Ka-52 76R/RF-13411 was confirmed shot down over unknown area.
Part of the reason is the latest shipment of SAMs donated by the USA: delivered already few days ago, this should have contained 9K33 Osa/SA-8, S-300/SA-10, and S-300V/SA-12s (apparently acquired from Egypt in exchange for a sale of Boeing F-15E fighter-bombers), plus another load of MANPADS, including Soviet/Russian-made 98K34 Strela-3/SA-14s.
Net result: I’m not surprised one can now see VKS Ka-52 and Mi-28-pilots acting as visible on this video (https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... 5926089730): I.e. approaching enemy positions at high speed only to shoot their unguided rockets ‘ballistically’, to extend their range, before turning sharply away and releasing flares. Free along the motto: ‘spray and pray’…
…and thus the Russians spent the day shelling infrastructure and housing in multiple cities, ‘instead’. Except for Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv, hit were also Vinnitsa and Zaporozhye. By now, at least 72 schools and 21 hospitals have been targeted by the Russians (in addition to about 3,500 infrastructure facilities, 2,700 residential buildings, 28 churches, etc., etc., etc.)
That said, the worst of all happened in Mariupol: after the 150th MRD was mauled while attacking from the east, on 15 Mar, yesterday it was the turn on the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, reinforced by T-64s of the Separatists to get ambushed. The latter have reached the Freedom Square, in western central Mariupol, but by then the Marines fell behind and thus the lonesome tanks were cut to pieces.
As a ‘retaliation’ for these – and earlier – losses, the Russians not only seized the Mariupol Regional Intensive Care Hospital, where they are holding its patients as hostages, but yesterday the VKS bombed out the Drama Theater, where hundreds of civilians were sheltering (see attached photo, where one can clearly read words ‘Dety’ – ‘children’ – written on the tarmac in front and behind the building….), and then the Neptune swimming pool, where further hundreds were taking refugee. The number of victims in both cases remains unknown.
Note for the end: after three weeks of day-by-day reporting, and until the situation changes, I’ll now slow down the pace of my reporting to ‘every second day’.

[utahbob]

Here is a good video on the VKS Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xg0L5vRnc8s

[thomasglee]

More succinctly, if you want to buy stuff or sell stuff, you'll have to choose one side or the other. The Western nations may not allow others to sit on the fence anymore.

Some valid points but old world thinking. You’re both overlooking the emergence of digital currencies.

I agree wholeheartedly that Russia should not trust China. Russia thinks China will be a consumer of oil and gas from Russia. However at some point China will try to just take that oil and gas by force - either economic or physical. However that’s a loner term play. I believe Xi and Putin both are basing their strategies in short terms gains.

I don't know that digital currencies would make any difference now. You still need some way to convert those into "real" money. Maybe in the future there will be some kind of change, but I think the people pushing these and cryptocurrencies have on overinflated belief in their usefulness.

In the medium to long term, both China and Russia are declining powers. The phrase "Russia is a gas station with nukes" is not so far off the map. Russia survives selling oil and gas and the increasing use of renewables mean that isn't a long term income stream. It has no other real exports because its domestic production isn't competitive on the international market. China is sitting on a debt bomb that dwarfs what the US is facing as well as a demographic implosion that will kill its economy. Even going on the conquest path won't make a difference in the long term.

Again, old school thinking. They don’t want guys who think like you and I do around. Younger, more hip folks will embrace digital currencies. If you can only buy with digital currency why do you to convert to anything? And even then, to what do you convert. Do you think dollar bills are money? No, a dollar bill is a form currency (a promissory note).

[Another guest]

Younger, more hip folks will embrace digital currencies.

So, in other words, if the hipsters think it's cool, it's all good. Just like handle bar mustaches and riding bicycles around NYC with the brakes removed (because the hipsters think that looks cool).

And when it goes Mad Max, it will be Bitcoin to rescue.

[Navigator]

Can't the Ukrainians be "triggered" too?

Yes, and in their case I would say that they certainly have been. They seem to be fighting quite well! Kudos to them.

But they are not going to attack anyone except Russia.

[Navigator]

I would say that the Russian Army is only good once an outside power has triggered the threat. This could come from invasion, if it goes far enough, and gets into core areas. For example, the German Army leadership in WW1 knew not to trigger this, and they never went far into Russia, and never against a large "Russian" city (they took Riga, but avoided moving on Minsk, as Riga is Latvian, while Minsk is core Russian).

Once the "trigger" occurs, the Russian Army is still good past its borders as it goes after whoever "pulled" the "trigger". Hence the Russian Army was competent in the pursuit of Napoleon outside Russia, going as far as Paris in his pursuit. Same with the Russian Army moving across Eastern and Central Europe in pursuit of Hitler and his armies.

Ukraine had been part of Russia for so long that Russians probably view what is going on there as a semi-internal matter. The "trigger" could be Putin telling his domestic audience that the West (NATO) is to blame for the fiasco now unfolding, for all the soldier deaths (due to the weapons they supplied) and that they are in "mortal danger".

He will certainly blame them for the economic turmoil they are about to suffer. Then they can play on the "look at your smug neighbors in the Baltics, Poland and Germany. They have everything we should have. They only have it because they are 'putting us down'". Then all those other Russian psychological instincts (as someone else put it, they will burn down their neighbor's house if its a lot better than theirs) will come into play too.

Also, don't forget the example of the Winter War. Everyone at the time thought the Red Army was hopelessly incompetent. Then look at what happened a year or two later. Stalingrad was neither Russians being incompetent nor "surrender monkeys".

The difference in this case is that Russia is not threatened with no fighting on Russian soil. The only Russian dying are those sent into Ukraine so I don't know that you could trigger the response you're talking about without Russian cities being bombed. There is also the problem that the Russian military seems to have big problems with logistics and can't just shovel millions or conscripts into the battle. It's having problems feeding the ones already there and has a shortage of modern munitions. Russian aircraft are suffering losses because they're attacking at low level with dumb bombs, something the West stopped doing 30 years ago because it could afford better.

In the quote from me I pointed out that Russians may view combat in Ukraine as "internal to Russia". So it may be "close enough to home" for them that the psychological trigger occurs. I do admit in this case they have been the aggressor, but they will spin it to say that they had "no choice" due to NATOs incremental incursion into Russia (Baltics and now involvement in Ukraine).

Their logistical problems seem to be in large measure due to buying into the fantasy that they would be in Ukrainian cities after 72 hours. I believe they are sorting out their logistics right now, just like we had to during the 2003 Iraq invasion when we had to halt for a couple of days to catch up. But logistics have always been a giant problem for the Russians, and their army tends to move in spurts as a result (action followed by long pauses to resupply).

The Russians have air dominance over the battlefield, but, as you point out, they don't have smart bombs/missiles. But my guess is that they have plenty of artillery shells, and that is what they are currently using on the Ukrainian cities and front line positions. Russian air doctrine is to prevent enemy from use of enemy air-ground assets over the battlefield, and there certainly are no Ukrainian aircraft bombing Russia (though their drones are doing good work, and something else the Russians need to adjust to find a countermeasure to).

[Tom Mazanec]

21 people killed in rocket barrage south of Kharkiv as Russia's bloody invasion enters its 4th week: Live Ukraine updates
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 071611001/

Twenty-one people were killed and 25 wounded Thursday after rockets slammed into the western Ukraine town of Merefa as Russia's bloody, struggling invasion dragged into its fourth week.

1 hr 1 min ago
US citizen among people killed by Russian shelling in Chernihiv, Ukrainian police say
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... f4a01fb077

A US citizen was among several people killed in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv on Thursday, Ukrainian police said.

The US State Department confirmed the death and offered condolences to the family.

[John]

** 17-Mar-2022 World View: Ukraine War destabilizing Nagorno-Karabakh

> Here is Tom Cooper's brief for today: ...

> The Ukrainian GenStab is reporting that the West OSK refused to
> deploy the 5th Combined Arms Army (not involved yet) to Kyiv,
> supposedly ‘due to heavy losses in the south’. Not yet sure what
> to think of this, but if so, then the 58th CAA is in far more
> serious trouble than thought – and that would explain the
> withdrawal of its elements from Voznesensk and Kryvyi Rihh, and
> the rushed redeployment of its elements from Armenia, just for
> example, and the ‘non-appearance’ of the much-expected amphibious
> landing in the Odessa area.

• Map of Azerbaijan and Armenia, showing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region (BBC)

The withdrawal of Russian troops from Armenia is confirmed by
another story:

> "Post-War Status Quo in South Caucasus Trembles While
> Russia Fights on in Ukraine

> On March 10, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense reported that the
> illegal Armenian armed detachment in the Karabakh region of
> Azerbaijan, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily deployed,
> fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, in the
> direction of the Aghdam, Khojavend and Fuzuli regions (Mod.gov.az,
> March 10). According to the Ministry, the Azerbaijani side
> responded proportionately, and the clashes calmed down without any
> casualties on their side. The Armenians also reported no
> casualties in the exchange. In contrast, on March 7, the Armenian
> side reported that one of its soldiers was killed along the border
> with Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan—a charge that Baku has
> denied (Panorama.am, March 7; Azernews, March 8).

> Since the beginning of March, amidst the ongoing war between
> Russia and Ukraine, armed clashes between of Azerbaijan and
> Armenia have intensified, not only inside the Karabakh region but
> also along the two countries’ shared state border. Tensions are
> escalating against the backdrop of increasing discontent in
> Azerbaijan with some recent activities of Russia’s peacekeeping
> mission, exacerbated by their failure to ensure the withdrawal of
> the Armenian Armed Forces from the Azerbaijani territories, in
> accordance with the trilateral (Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan)
> statement of November 10, 2020, which had ended the Second
> Karabakh War (see EDM, September 22, 2021). ...

> With Moscow mainly focused on the situation in Ukraine, some
> thus-far-unverified information posted to Telegram claim that
> Russia is deploying part of its peacekeeping mission in Karabakh
> to the Ukrainian theater. Moreover, on March 13, the Ukrainian
> General Staff named “Nagorno-Karabakh” among regions, along with
> Serbia and Syria, from where Russia is purportedly bringing
> fighters to support its military operations (Kyiv Independent,
> March 13). Thus, the fate of this war will not only determine the
> future of Ukraine but also promises to transform the situation in
> other parts of the post-Soviet space."

> -- Post-War Status Quo in South Caucasus Trembles While Russia Fights
> on in Ukraine
> https://jamestown.org/program/post-war- ... n-ukraine/
> (Jamestown EDM, 17-Mar-2022)

This news is highly significant, since Russia not only mediated the
the Armenia-Azerbaijan "peace deal" over the war in Nagorno-Karabakh,
but also provided troops for "peacekeeping" purposes.

** 11-Nov-20 World View -- Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e201111


As I wrote at the time, those peacekeeping troops are necessary to
keep the war from resuming, and turning into a full-scale genocidal
war in Nagorno-Karabakh. If Russia is withdrawing these troops to
fight in Ukraine, that war could resume.

This is a good example of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine is
destabilizing other parts of the world. Two other examples of
destabilizing issues of note are, first, the 2.5 million Ukrainian
refugees who have fled to other countries and, second, the fact that
all Russian troops in the Far East have been moved to Ukraine, leaving
the volatile border with China undefended.

Many people believe that WW III has already begun, and I agree. My
expectation is that these points of instability will increase, and
"metastasize" into points of conflict, leading to full-scale war.

[thomasglee]

Younger, more hip folks will embrace digital currencies.

So, in other words, if the hipsters think it's cool, it's all good. Just like handle bar mustaches and riding bicycles around NYC with the brakes removed (because the hipsters think that looks cool).

And when it goes Mad Max, it will be Bitcoin to rescue.

The cities will be the refuge for the compliant. Again, hence the push to get 5G and IoT networks deployed. If you want to partake in the economy and you want to get paid by your employer, while living in a hip, urban community, you'll use a CBDC. Nobody said anything about bitcoin.

[Tom Mazanec]

Just a reminder, according to GD America's real enemy is China:

WORLD AT WARWWIII: Biden Sending THOUSANDS Of Marines To Australia In Anticipation Of Conflict With China
https://summit.news/2022/03/16/wwiii-bi ... ith-china/