Generational Dynamics World View News

[Xeraphim1]

My guess is that right now they are supplying the Russians with trucks (to make up for significant Russian losses) and probably a lot more, like ammunition and spare parts.

As time goes on and the Chinese (not to mention the Russians) widen the war, the Chinese will have to send large quantities of equipment and supplies to back up the Russians. At some point I would not be surprised at all if Chinese troops ended up in the European theater.

I have no doubt that the “alliance of evil” plan was to have Putin “go first” in taking Ukraine, so that the US would reinforce NATO in Europe, and thus be weaker when the Chinese make their move against Taiwan. Then, I think Putin’s plan was to go after the Baltics.

But now the plan, at least its initial stage is in disarray. The Russians will have to make drastic changes to stay on track, and it is questionable if they can pull this off and stay on the timeline they probably have with the Chinese. The Chinese, I am sure, are starting to wonder what benefits, if any they are actually getting from their partnership with Putin.

China might be selling Russia trucks, but weapons is more iffy due to the fact that China manufactures its own weapons which may not be functional in non-Chinese systems. China is probably hesitant to sell any high value equipment to Russia right now because its economy is dependent on exporting and most of the world is anti-Russia at the moment. I would think it extremely unlikely that large quantities of Chinese materiel was sold and almost unthinkable that Chinese soldiers would end up in Europe. All of those sanctions against Russia would start to be applied against China. It's possible that Xi is crazy like Putin, but the CCP has been fairly risk averse in the past few decades and hasn't taken great risks.

I also don't think that Russia and China are in any kind of actual partnership; more that each is using the other for its own purposes; and each knowing that the other is doing it.

I speculate that China is starting to wonder if building all those artificial islands in the South China Sea was worth it when its Northern neighbor is so obviously militarily incompetent.

[Navigator]

Right now I would guess that the Chinese may be providing ammunition, but I think the Russian stockpile is pretty large. They could also be supplying spare parts for Russian equipment they also use, and maybe other incidentals.

The use of Chinese equipment won't happen until both theaters are involved in hot wars and the US is also involved.

Chinese troops in Europe would not happen until WW3 is well underway and the Russians ask for help (as did Austria-Hungary in the case of Serbia, which had held out almost a year after WW1 started).

Certainly the Chinese don't want any sanctions right now, but the Russian sanctions and other significant factors (debt, current inflation) are starting to apply serious pressure to everyone's economies and financial markets.

The Chinese will move. Xi is under internal pressure, that will only dramatically increase in magnitude if/when the financial crisis comes. Moving against Taiwan would then not be very surprising, and would likely evolve into a two front war for the US, as a pivot to Asia would enable Putin to try his "next step" against the Baltics.

[Tom Mazanec]

Kyiv refuses demands to surrender Mariupol
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/blog ... l-n1292442

Russia-Ukraine live news: Moscow says war going according to plan
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2 ... n-liveblog

Russian strikes turning Mariupol into 'ashes' as West plans more sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-a ... 022-03-22/

[lense]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VEiigkiVV0[/youtube]

Former KGB general Oleg Kalugin talks about Putin

"Well, there are other reasons for the breakdown of their marriage..."

Go to 8:12 mark.

This interview was just released a few days ago. In it, Kalugin hints at Putin's perversity.

The commandant is getting closer and closer to telling the truth.

Wait...

[John]

** 22-Mar-2022 World View: Rhyming with WW II

> The use of Chinese equipment won't happen until both theaters are
> involved in hot wars and the US is also involved.

Related to this, I've noted before that the US did everything it could
to stay out of European wars in 1914 and 1939, and did remain out for
several years. In fact, the US stayed out of the Asian war for
several years, even after the Japanese sank the USS Panay on the
Yangtze River on 12/12/1937 during Japan's "Rape of Nanking."

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. If WW III rhymes with
WW II, then the following will happen:

• The US will stay out of the war in Europe for several
  years.
• China will invade Taiwan, and end up in war with Japan.
• North Korea will invade South Korea, and the US will try to stay
  out of that war as well.
• Eventually, something equivalent to the Pearl Harbor attack will
  occur, forcing the US into the war. This might be a nuclear attack by
  China.

[Tom Mazanec]

The US will stay out of the war in Europe for several
years.

I suspect things might happen faster this time.

Biden's risk-averse approach to Russia could create greater threat, experts say
They say an "emboldened" Putin might be more dangerous than added NATO support.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/experts ... d=83538052

FBI 'concerned' about Russian cyberattacks on critical US infrastructure: Wray
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-con ... d=83604956

Putin's next escalation could be a direct cyberattack on the US
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/politics ... index.html

Biden administration to sanction hundreds of Russian lawmakers: report
https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... -lawmakers

[Navigator]

** 22-Mar-2022 World View: Rhyming with WW II

> The use of Chinese equipment won't happen until both theaters are
> involved in hot wars and the US is also involved.

Related to this, I've noted before that the US did everything it could
to stay out of European wars in 1914 and 1939, and did remain out for
several years. In fact, the US stayed out of the Asian war for
several years, even after the Japanese sank the USS Panay on the
Yangtze River on 12/12/1937 during Japan's "Rape of Nanking."

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. If WW III rhymes with
WW II, then the following will happen:

• The US will stay out of the war in Europe for several
  years.
• China will invade Taiwan, and end up in war with Japan.
• North Korea will invade South Korea, and the US will try to stay
  out of that war as well.
• Eventually, something equivalent to the Pearl Harbor attack will
  occur, forcing the US into the war. This might be a nuclear attack by
  China.

The big difference now is that there isn't another major power to "carry the load" while the USA sits on the sidelines. France and Great Britain carried the load in WW1, Great Britain and then USSR in WW2. There is nobody substantial to thwart the forces of evil now except the USA.

Still, the Biden administration will try to find a way to stay out of it as long as possible. Just like FDR did, then some Pearl Harbor kind of event (if engagement hasn't happened earlier) will tip things into total war, and, if such an event happens, cause the regeneracy you have predicted.

[John]

** 22-Mar-2022 World View: Carrying the load

> The big difference now is that there isn't another major power to
> "carry the load" while the USA sits on the sidelines. France and
> Great Britain carried the load in WW1, Great Britain and then USSR
> in WW2. There is nobody substantial to thwart the forces of evil
> now except the USA.

> Still, the Biden administration will try to find a way to stay out
> of it as long as possible. Just like FDR did, then some Pearl
> Harbor kind of event (if engagement hasn't happened earlier) will
> tip things into total war, and, if such an event happens, cause
> the regeneracy you have predicted.

Can't Nato in Europe and Japan in Asia carry the load for a while?

[Guest]

** 22-Mar-2022 World View: Carrying the load

> The big difference now is that there isn't another major power to
> "carry the load" while the USA sits on the sidelines. France and
> Great Britain carried the load in WW1, Great Britain and then USSR
> in WW2. There is nobody substantial to thwart the forces of evil
> now except the USA.

> Still, the Biden administration will try to find a way to stay out
> of it as long as possible. Just like FDR did, then some Pearl
> Harbor kind of event (if engagement hasn't happened earlier) will
> tip things into total war, and, if such an event happens, cause
> the regeneracy you have predicted.

Can't Nato in Europe and Japan in Asia carry the load for a while?

Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Vietnam, yes.
Asia is armed to the teeth, and Asians (to a lesser extent in Japan) are still warriors.

Western Europe, no
European armies are shadows of their former selves, the their countries are overrun with aggressive migrants, and the men of been detoxed of masculinity.

[MrGuest]

** 22-Mar-2022 World View: Rhyming with WW II

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. If WW III rhymes with
WW II, then the following will happen:

• The US will stay out of the war in Europe for several
  years.
• China will invade Taiwan, and end up in war with Japan.
• North Korea will invade South Korea, and the US will try to stay
  out of that war as well.
• Eventually, something equivalent to the Pearl Harbor attack will
  occur, forcing the US into the war. This might be a nuclear attack by
  China.

Doesn't modern technology/globalization/communication change this equation? It's hard for me to imagine a world war dragging on for several years as we just watch from the sidelines, especially given our economic dependence on all of the Asian countries involved? Also, if the war in Europe spreads to NATO countries we're obligated to get involved. Generations may forget the visceral lessons of history, but people started crowing about the lessons of the previous world wars almost as soon as Ukraine didn't capitulate in a few days. Once China makes its move, economies collapse (if they haven't already) and then you start to see other conflicts break out as countries take advantage of the mess to settle old business ... I just don't see Americans sitting there thinking we can ignore it all. Even at the start of WWII the isolationist idea - that geography protected us from "old world" disputes that were none of our business - wasn't completely irrational given what people knew at the time (regarding historical hindsight I recall a great quote from a historian along the lines of "Neville Chamberlain's biggest disadvantage is that he didn't have the spectre of Neville Chamberlain hanging over him") While being rightfully cautious of Russia's nuclear threat the US is already deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict - over the type of conflict that 80 years ago most Americans would have barely noticed and the post-WOT isolationist trend has pretty much evaporated overnight.

The other question I have is how long would China put up with protracted conventional wars against Taiwan and Japan before using nukes? And can they keep North Korea in line? Can Kim be trusted not to do something crazy?

It seems to me that things will move much faster than wars in the past, but you guys are way more informed on the current situations with these countries than I am.

I'll add a "fun" speculative question. Suppose somehow Russia, China, etc. didn't have nuclear weapons. Could the proactive attitude shown by the West have prevented a broader WWIII?